You know what good teams do after a tough loss? They bounce back. They spit in the face of controversy. They circle the wagons and treat everyone as the enemy.
You think we’re talking about the Patriots? Please.
We’re referencing the Pick It and Stick It machine here at Felger and Mazz.
Despite getting suckered into picking the Patriots last week, we finished Week 7 with a sterling 10-4 performance, our best effort to date. The only thing that stood between us and an 11-3 performance was the surprising ineptitude of Bill Belichick, who seemingly couldn’t make a choice between Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones while his team was getting run over by the Chicago Bears in Foxboro. This week, Belichick has committed to Jones relatively early and one can only assume that Jones will finish what he starts, independent of the event to take place against the New York Jets on Sunday at the Meadowlands.
Will the Pats do as we did and bounce back?
That remains to be seen.
But regardless, we here at Pick It and Stick It intend to keep marching on.
Last week 10-4.
Season to date: 57-48-3.
(Individual game odds courtesy of DraftKings.)
Baltimore (-1.5) at Tampa (Thursday night)
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 23: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after an incompletion in the first quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
Under normal circumstances, picking against Tom Brady in this game would be a foolish endeavor. Only this isn’t really Tom Brady anymore – and we’re not making any reference to the plastic surgery or “work” that has made Brady look downright skeletal. Brady looks and sounds like he’s playing out the string and doesn’t believe in his team – and neither do we. Felger likes the Bucs in this game, but Brady’s only previous matchup with Lamar Jackson resulted in the Patrio … er, Brady’s team … getting trucked on national television. The Bucs defense hasn’t played as well of late and this feels like a team in turmoil. Murray and I like the Ravens. Pick: Baltimore.
Denver (+2.5) at Jacksonville (London)
DENVER, COLORADO – OCTOBER 23: Head coach Nathaniel Hackett (L) and Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos walk on the field after the game against the New York Jets at Empower Field At Mile High on October 23, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
How would you like to be a fan of the Jaguars, who seemingly play more games in London than Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham combined? As such, it’s seems foolish to give the Jags the traditional field goal for home field advantage, which means that odds makers might regard them as a slightly bigger favorite if this game were played in Florida. Regardless, this looks and feels like a very low-scoring game and will probably stay close, so I’m inclined to take the points. Felger agrees with me. Murray does not. I’d like to make fun of Murray here, but a listener recently sent in a breakdown that suggests Murray has been more correct than anyone else in these selections. Until we can prove that someone other than Murray’s weed guy did not sent the email, we’re assuming the email was propaganda. Pick: Denver.
New England (-1.5) at NY Jets
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 24: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots looks on before the game against the Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium on October 24, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
So this is what it comes down to: Pats at Jets, the season potentially on the line. An exaggeration? Maybe so. Maybe not. But if Bill Belichick and Co. lose to New York this week, the Patriots will be 3-5 and in a seeming spin, which is no place to be during any football season, especially with the Patriots’ schedule about to intensify. So which way will this go? Felger likes the Pats to rebound after last week, which is certainly possible. Murray likes the Jets big – “Please add that I think the Patriots will get killed,” he wrote – and I happen to believe the game will be close and relatively low-scoring. So I guess I have the deciding vote. I’m going J-E-T-S Jets in a nail biter. Pick: New York.
Pittsburgh (+10.5) at Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 16: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs onto the field prior to the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field on October 16, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Feels like a big spread, right? It isn’t. In fact, it’s not even the biggest spread of the week, which we’ll get to shortly. Incredible, Murray and Felger are both taking the cheese on this, which blows me away. The Eagles are positively stacked on both sides of the ball – and they’re coming off a bye. Could they have a let down? Sure. I guess. But the Pittsburgh offense is terrible and the Eagles rank fourth in the NFL in both scoring offense and defense, which means they can score in the low 20s in this game and still cover the spread. Unfortunately, my vote doesn’t matter. Maybe I need to get my weed guy (Murray?) to tally up the weekly individual totals. Pick: Pittsburgh.
Chicago (+9) at Dallas
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 24: Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears runs with the ball during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on October 24, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
So here’s the question: did the Bears turn some sort of corner last week or do the Patriots just stink? While you’re chewing on that, remember that the Bears have played one-score games in each of the last five weeks and that their defense has allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league on average. The Dallas offense has hardly been explosive this year and ranks just ahead of the Green Bay Packers in scoring – and Dak Prescott didn’t exactly tear it up last week in his return. Are the Cowboys the better team? You bet. But Felger and I agree that nine points feels like a very big number. Murray must have actually unpackaged his weed before he picked this game. Pick: Chicago.
Miami (-3.5) at Detroit
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 23: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins calls a play during warm ups prior to the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Hard Rock Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
The Lions looked like an entertaining, competitive team when they arrived in Foxboro a few weeks back, but you know what has happened since? They’ve gone 0-2 and been outscored 53-6 while failing to score even a single touchdown. Now that Miami has Tua Tagovailoa back, this makes Miami an easy selection, right? Wrong. Felger is taking the bait here and going with the Dolphins, but don’t be fooled. The Miami offense didn’t look great last week and, more importantly, Detroit has played well at home. There is every chance Felgie will prove right here, but in the meantime, Murray and I have seemingly been ingested the same product. Spark `it up, Murray! Pick: Detroit.
Arizona (+4) at Minnesota
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 16: Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings celebrates a win against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on October 16, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
Let’s be honest: is there a less impressive 5-1 team in football than the Vikings, whose only defeat this season was at Philadelphia? The answer: no, especially when you consider that Minnesota’s wins have come against Green Bay, Detroit, New Orleans, Chicago and Miami, the last of which came when the Dolphins were without Tua. The point is that all of us – that’s right, it’s unanimous – believe that Minnesota is a fraud team, though that is only half of the equation. The other half is that we all similarly agree that Kyler Murray is an even bigger fraud, which brings us back to the home team and the Vikings’ (very) spongy schedule. Pick: Minnesota.
Las Vegas (-2) at New Orleans
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 23: Running back Josh Jacobs #28 of the Las Vegas Raiders celebrates his 15-yard touchdown run against the Houston Texans in the fourth quarter of their game at Allegiant Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Raiders defeated the Texans 38-20. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Generally speaking, there’s at least one game every week that I wouldn’t advise anyone to bet – and this is it (or one of them) in Week 8. Why? The Raiders are completely unpredictable, mostly because they’re starting to get the hang of Josh McDaniels’ offense but still can’t stop a nosebleed. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton has actually played fairly well as the New Orleans starter and the Saints have pretty much been in every game they’ve played. I lean Vegas here – as do Murray and Felger – but I, personally, don’t feel great about it. Still, the number (-2) is very low, which honestly makes this game a very tough call. What the (expletive). It’s Vegas, baby. Let’s roll the dice. Pick: Las Vegas.
Carolina (+4.5) at Atlanta
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 23: Head coach Steve Wilks of the Carolina Panthers stands on the sidelines in the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Bank of America Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
See the photo above? That’s Steve Wilks, the interim coach of the Panthers who got his first career win last week after taking over for Matt Ruhle. Seems like a decent fellow. We’re also not sure there will ever again be a reason for you to identify him going forward, so we thought we’d use his photo now. With all due respect to Wilks, Carolina’s win over Tampa Bay last week said far, far more about the Bucs than it did about the Panthers, who are selling off pieces like lepers. As much as I hate the Falcons – and I do – Atlanta has been one of the surprise teams in the league and feels due for a bounce back after losing last week, on the road, against a Cincinnati team that appears to be hitting its stride. We all agree on this one. Pick: Atlanta.
Tennessee (-2) at Houston
LANDOVER, MARYLAND – OCTOBER 09: Head coach Mike Vrabel of the Tennessee Titans watches his team warm up before their game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on October 09, 2022 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
If there were a way to pick against every team in the AFC South this week, we probably would. The obvious problem here is that Tennessee and Houston are playing one another, which means something must give in what is, in all likelihood, the worst division in football. (The NFC South is also in the running.) The more we look at this division, the more we think that the X-factor is Mike Vrabel, coach of the Titans, pictured above. The Titans are hardly the same type of AFC threat they have been in recent seasons, but Vrabel is by far the best coach in the division. And as much as I like Houston quarterback Davis Mills – and I still do – it’s hard to pick a Texans team with a spread this small. I think this game is going to be closer than anyone suspects, but we’re all in agreement here. Pick: Tennessee.
NY Giants (+3) at Seattle
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 23: Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on October 23, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
Remember when Daniel Jones and Geno Smith were both busts? Well don’t look now, but according to the QBR statistic fancied by ESPN, they are now the sixth- and fourth-best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, in that order. As such, the Giants (6-1) and Seahawks (4-3) are two of the biggest and best stories in the league, the former thanks in large part to coach Brian Daboll, who has granted Jones a new lease on life. The Seahawks are typically difficult to beat at home and the Giants are 3-0 on the road, which makes this one of the tougher and more interesting games of the week. Incredibly, we all think the Giants are the pick, though it feels like they’re due for a loss. Pick: New York.
Washington (+3) at Indianapolis
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 23: Head coach Frank Reich of the Indianapolis Colts runs off the field after the game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
On Felger and Mazz this week, Felger asked the following during our “10 Questions” segment with Greg Bedard: which team in the NFL is most hopeless at the quarterback position? While Indianapolis was the consensus, the Washington Commanders are also in the running. In the last three years, the Colts have had Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan and quarterbacks – and all have failed spectacularly. Meanwhile, the Commanders have done the Colts one better, going from Case Keenum to Alex Smith to Taylor Heinicke to Wentz. Are the Patriots destined to become one of these teams? Murray and Felger like the Commanders. I like the Colts. Pick: Washington.
San Francisco (-1.5) at LA Rams
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 23: Frank Clark #55 of the Kansas City Chiefs tackles Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers in the endzone for a safety in the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Quick question: if Jimmy Garoppolo could have seen Chris Jones about to smush him in the photo above, what would he have done? A.) Crapped his pants; B.) Turtled like a coward; C.) Gotten hurt; D.) All of the above. Given that the Niners recently added Christian McCaffrey, one can’t help but if they would have better off finding a quarterback given that they rank 19th (and sinking) in the NFL in passer rating. Incredibly, the defending Super Bowl-champion Rams are actually two spots behind San Francisco, thanks largely to an offensive line that has been utterly inept. The Rams are coming off a bye but the Niners actually feel like the better team. We all like San Francisco here but the Rams’ season is at stake. Pick: San Francisco.
Green Bay (+11) at Buffalo (Sunday night)
LANDOVER, MARYLAND – OCTOBER 23: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers looks on from the bench during the third quarter of the game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on October 23, 2022 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Some of you may be surprised by this, but Felger actually likes the Packers this week. For that matter, so does Murray. The only real explanation for this is that Felger got into Murray’s stash because nothing else really makes sense. Me? I think the Bills are going to wipe the floor with the Packers, who kind of suck. It’s hard to imagine Green Bay coming anywhere close to the offensive output needed to keep this game close, let alone win it. Frankly, I’m surprised these two jack wagons are in agreement – and I’m disappointed mostly in Murray because he usually piles onto struggling teams. The Packers have no passing game, folks. The Bills have a good defense and the best quarterback in football. I’m the odd man but I want it on the record that I have the Bills to cover. Pick: Green Bay.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Cleveland (Monday night)
CINCINNATI, OHIO – OCTOBER 23: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals during player introductions before the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Paul Brown Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Well, well, well … guess who is emerging from the mist and starting to put it together again? That’s right, the defending AFC-champion Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow, who have now won 4-of-5 since starting the season 0-2. Are the Bengals a threat to make the Super Bowl again? Perhaps, though they’re going to need some momentum if they are to challenge the Bills and Chiefs, who are the clear upper class of the AFC. Still, the Bengals have now hit the soft spot of their schedule and could be 8-3 by the time they face Kansas City later this season. In the interim, we all like them against the dreadful Browns. Pick: Cincinnati.
