In the gambling world, to borrow a phrase, the first four weeks are an extension of the preseason. So, now that we’re in October and entering Week 5, well, let’s just say that we’ve only begun to hit our stride.
With last week’s 9-6-1 performance, we’re happy to report that Pick It and Stick It is 33-29-2 through 64 games, which is hardly anything to sneeze at. And we’re getting better by the week. But before we give ourselves a tongue bath like the one Bill Belichick slapped on Aaron Rodgers last Sunday, we acknowledge that karma is a bitch, so we’re going to dial it back a notch and adhere to the far more snooze-inducing stuff.
We’re just trying to take it one week at a time.
But we think we’re about to get real hot.
So suck it.
Last week: 9-6-1.
Season to date: 33-29-2.
(Odds courtesy of the DraftKings sportsbook as of 1:30 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 6.)
Indianapolis (+3.5) at Denver (Thursday)
ATLANTA, GA – JANUARY 14: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons and Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks meet on the field after the Atlanta Falcons win at the Georgia Dome on January 14, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Have there been two more disappointing teams in the NFL so far than this impotent pair? At times, Russell Wilson has looked cashed. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has fumbled nine times – yes, nine – and thrown five interceptions, making him this year’s Carson Wentz. Five years ago, these two quarterbacks met in the playoffs. But now? Both might be headed for assisted living. Murray likes the Colts. Felger and I both like Denver. Murray loses out here, but let’s be honest. With these teams right now, it’s the lesser of two evils. Pick: Denver.
Detroit (+3) at New England
ATLANTA, GA – FEBRUARY 03: Dont’a Hightower #54 of the New England Patriots sacks Jared Goff #16 of the Los Angeles Rams in the first half during Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on February 3, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Quick, who leads the NFL in touchdown passes? Answer: Jared Goff. Yes, that Jared Goff, the same clown who you see pinned to the turf by Dont’a Hightower in the photo above.
That was the Super Bowl.
This week? It’s Zappe Hour.
Murray has been on the Lions all year, so it should come as no surprise that he’s the outlier again. What is even more surprising, perhaps, is that Felger and I are both picking the Patriots for a second consecutive week, which might be a first in the 13-year history of the Felger & Mazz program. I’d like to mock Murray here, but he feels like I pick on him too much. So I’m going to wait for a better chance to rip him a new one. Pick: New England.
NY Giants (+8) at Green Bay
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 02: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots and Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers talk after Green Bay’s 27-24 win in overtime at Lambeau Field on October 02, 2022 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
As longtime Boston media personality former Gary Tanguay once noted, genius generally does walk alone. Felger and Murray both like the Giants here, which leaves me as the voice in the wilderness. As competitive as the Giants have been this year, they’re due to get rocked – and Green Bay feels like the place. After Aaron Rodgers turned down Bill Belichick’s marriage proposal last week (above), Rodgers seemed like a guy intent on improvement in Week 5. Felger and Murray clearly think I’m an idiot. Pick: New York.
Pittsburgh (+14) at Buffalo
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 02: Kenny Pickett #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers jogs off the field after losing to the New York Jets 24-20 at Acrisure Stadium on October 02, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Well, well, well … we’re a team, Murray! Felger obviously looks at the 14-point spready and deems it preposterous for an NFL game, which might be true were it not for one small fact: the Bills really haven’t played all that well for two weeks and rookie Kenny Pickett is making his first career start, on the road, against what might be the best team in football. The Bills are due to give someone a beating and Pittsburgh feels like the perfect lamb. Personally, I like Pickett. But this week, he’s Kenny Stickett. Pick: Buffalo.
Atlanta (+9.5) at Tampa Bay
TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 02: Tom Brady #12 and Russell Gage #17 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers walk off the field after losing to the Kansas City Chiefs 41-31 at Raymond James Stadium on October 02, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Suggested caption for the photo above: the more things change, the more they stay the same. I mean, really, is there anything more consistent that Tom Brady lecturing one of his receivers, in this case Russell Gage? The Falcons have played mostly garbage so far, but they’re 2-2 and their two defeats have been by a combined five points. Felger likes the Bucs. I’m with Murray, who probably likes Atlanta only because he used to work there. Remember “Take that Reimer, you bum”? Well this week it’s Take that Felger, you bum. Pick: Atlanta.
Miami (-3.5) at NY Jets
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 11: Head coach Mike McDaniel and Teddy Bridgewater #5 of the Miami Dolphins talks before the game against the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
Miami has owned this series over the last few years, winning four straight and 10-of-12. But it certainly feels like the worm is about to turn. The Jets now have Zach Wilson back and the Jets are without Tua Tagovailoa, which leads us to the obvious question pictured above. Can Mike McDaniel work his magic even with Teddy Bridgewater, perhaps the best backup in the league and possessor of a career 33-30 record? We all say no. At least not yet. Potentially a big week the J-E-T-S Jets, whose only wins are over Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Pick: New York.
LA Chargers (-2.5) at Cleveland
HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 02: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers drops back to pass in the second quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on October 02, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
The point spread here seems a little fishy, which suggests the oddsmakers fear this game … but we don’t. Just Herbert returned to form last week after a stink bomb against Jacksonville that he played with sore ribs. Since he entered the league, Herbert has thrown more touchdown passes than all but four quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. Pretty good company, right? Still, he’s just 17-19. So is that him or the Chargers? We all like the Chargers here, but keep an eye on this guy. He hasn’t gotten the results he should. Yet. Pick: Los Angeles.
Chicago (+7) at Minnesota
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – SEPTEMBER 19: Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings jogs off the field after losing 24-7 to Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on September 19, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
I’ll be honest: I’m inclined to pick the Bears here because it’s a division game and, at his core, Kirk Cousins is a loser. But I just can’t. Neither can Felger nor Murray, the latter of whom thinks the Bears absolutely blow. And he’s right. Chicago’s inability to find a quarterback – ever – remains one of the great streaks in sports and, in some ways, is as reassuring as Old Faithful. Death, taxes and inevitable truth that the Bears have a suckbag quarterback. We all like the Vikes, though the spread scares me. Pick: Minnesota.
Houston (+7) at Jacksonville
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 02: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars fumbles the ball during the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 02, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Take solace, Patriots fans: there is always Houston to dump on. After roughly a quarter of the season, the Texans remain the only winless team in the NFL, putting Houston in the carpool lane for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. And yet, for whatever reason, I still like Texans quarterback Davis Mills, who has very little chance of winning with the sludge around him. Felger and Murray both like the Jags as Trevor Lawrence continues to make a jump, though Lawrence fumbled four times in last week’s loss to the Eagles. If he keeps that up, it won’t be long before he catches Matt Ryan. Pick: Jacksonville.
Tennessee (-2.5) at Washington
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – OCTOBER 02: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts and Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans poses with each other’s jersey after Tennessee’s 24-17 win at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 02, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
This picture really has nothing to do with this game, but there is nonetheless a message in it: running backs come and running backs go. Jonathan Taylor (at Denver on Thursday) is out this week and Derrick Henry is starting to look more and more like an aging Earl Campbell or Eddie George – and that is hardly a compliment. The good news? The Titans are playing the dreadful Commanders, who somehow managed to defeat the Jaguars in Week 1 but still shouldn’t get more than a handful of victories all year. We’re all in agreement here. The Commanders suck. Pick: Tennessee.
Seattle (+5.5) at New Orleans
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – OCTOBER 02: Geno Smith #7 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on October 02, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Seattle quarterback Geno Smith has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL so far this year, completing a league-best 77.3 percent of his passes while compiling a 108.8 passer rating that puts him a whisker behind – get this – Patrick Mahomes. So why the skepticism? Because other than last week’s game against the defenseless Lions, the Seahawks really haven’t scored all that much. Foolish Felger (has a nice ring to it, eh?) took the cheese on the Seahawks, but Murray and I like a desperate New Orleans team and that Saints defense. Foolish Felger loses. Pick: New Orleans.
San Francisco (-6.5) at Carolina
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 03: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers rushes for a touchdown as he breaks a tackle by cornerback Jalen Ramsey #5 of the Los Angeles Rams during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium on October 03, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
I have no idea what the over-under total is for this game but I’d suggest betting the under. The one thing the Panthers can do is play defense and the San Francisco D feels downright prolific this year. Personally, I lean toward taking the points in this game because this feels like a 17-13 affair, but I’ve been overruled by Dumb & Dumber – take your pick – who clearly just leap toward the shinier object. Then again, some suggest that the best way to gamble is to pick the team that you think will win the game and to disregard the spread entirely. We shall see. Pick: San Francisco.
Philadelphia (-5.5) at Arizona
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 02: Miles Sanders #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs past Andre Cisco #5 of the Jacksonville Jaguars while scoring a touchdown during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on October 02, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
By now, you should know that I have a thing about home dogs getting more than three points. So I actually like the Cardinals. Incredibly, so does Felger, which leaves Murray in the frustrating place of knowing that his selection does not matter. The Eagles are currently the only unbeaten team in the league, but c’mon. They’re not that good. This feels like the game that’s going to bite a lot of people in the ass this week and I don’t like my ass bitten. Apparently, neither does Felgie. Pick: Arizona.
Dallas (+5.5) at LA Rams
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 03: Defensive end Nick Bosa #97 of the San Francisco 49ers sacks quarterback Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium on October 03, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Know who I’m all in on? The Cowboys – or at least the Cowboys defense, which has looked downright dominant through the early part of the season. So why am I picking the Rams? Because Los Angeles is desperate and because Sean McVay looked kind of pissed after Matthew Stafford got battered by the Niners on Monday night. Look, the Rams probably aren’t repeating this year. They have too many problems, particularly up front. But there’s still talent there and most people (like Murray) will jump at the 4.5 points. Felger and I actually like the Rams. Pick: Los Angeles.
Cincinnati (+3) at Baltimore (Sunday night)
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – OCTOBER 02: Head coach John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens looks on in the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills at M&T Bank Stadium on October 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
If the Ravens aren’t raging after last week, they should be. Thanks to the foolishness of John Harbaugh and/or his analytics staff, the Ravens blew last week’s game against the Bills and tumbled to a late defeat. Now here come the Bengals in what amounts to a battle for supremacy in the AFC North – with the harsh reality that, barring a tie, one of these teams will have a losing record (2-3) come Monday morning. Given that the game is in Baltimore, the Ravens need to hold serve here. Incredibly, this is something we all agree on. Pick: Baltimore.
Las Vegas (+7) at Kansas City (Monday night)
TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 02: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a touchdown pass to Clyde Edwards-Helaire #25 (not pictured) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium on October 02, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
I’m rooting hard for Josh McDaniels this year – I really am – but do you know the Chiefs have won 15 of the last 18 meetings between these teams? And do you know that Kansas City outscored the Raiders 89-23 in two victories a year ago? This one feels like a bloodbath. The Raiders need to get into the mid-20s (at least) to win this game and they need to find a way to slow down Patrick Mahomes. And we don’t really think they can do either one. We all like the Chiefs here and we bet most of America does, too. Pick: Kansas City.
