Haven’t spoken to my partners about our colossal failure last week, but I’m going to make a preemptive strike, which is unusual in this relationship. I’m taking the bullet. It’s my fault. We had our worst week of the season – I think – and someone has to do something for morale. So here goes. Mea culpa.
Unlike the Patriots, we didn’t play a completely self-destructive opponent. When you go against the field in the NFL on a weekly basis, you don’t have that luxury.
So here we are in the fourth quarter, as the saying goes, when everything is typically won or lost. The NFL is back to a full, 16-game slate every week. We are 99-92-4 for the season, which isn’t going to last long if we have a repeat of last week. Every game truly means something now, and we here at Pick It and Stick It intend to play this to its conclusion, one way or the other. We will live or die on this hill.
How’s that for building up the drama?
As we all know, the Patriots are at las Vegas this week, a game that was originally scheduled for primetime but was flexed out because, well, both teams kinda suck. But before we even get to the turmoil-infested Patriots, we have a number of games to pick this week. And we refuse to go down as ingloriously as they are.
To the games!
Last week: 4-9.
Season-to-date: 99-92-4.
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings.)
San Francisco (-3) at Seattle (Thursday night)
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 11: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers looks on during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Levi’s Stadium on December 11, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
So let this be a lesson to us all? Brock Purdy in San Francisco. Geno Smith in Seattle. Mike White in New York. Other teams have system that incorporate new quarterbacks and win. Can the Patriots? Anyway, at the time of publishing, Purdy was questionable. Either way, this game was going to be a good test for him and the Niners. Murray and Felger are both on San Fran. I am, too. I just think they’re the better team and the ‘Hawks are fading. Pick: San Francisco.
Indianapolis (+4) at Minnesota (Saturday)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – NOVEMBER 28: Head coach Jeff Saturday of the Indianapolis Colts looks on against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter in the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
See the photo above of Jeff Saturday? Now that is a beaten man. And can you blame him? The Colts have been a mess for years now. Sadly, if the Colts were playing like they were when Saturday first took over, I’d pick them in this game because they have the better defense. But now, with Minnesota coming off a loss at Detroit? Felger likes Indy. Murray is going with Minnesota. Honestly, I think this game would be unanimous. But I’m with Murray. Pick: Minnesota.
Baltimore (+3) at Cleveland (Saturday)
CINCINNATI, OHIO – DECEMBER 11: A group of Cincinnati Bengals combine to sack Deshaun Watson #4 of the Cleveland Browns in the third quarter at Paycor Stadium on December 11, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
I don’t know about you, but there’s something pleasing about seeing the Browns and DeShaun Watson get beaten. This week, both will host Baltimore in Watson’s first home game – against a Baltimore defense that has improved tremendously since the start of the year and the addition of Roquan Smith. The Ravens might be the least impressive 9-4 team in football, but it’s hard to not like them here getting points. Murray is the outlier here on the Browns. Pick: Cleveland.
Miami (+7.5) at Buffalo (Saturday night)
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 11: Dawson Knox #88, Spencer Brown #79 and Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates a touchdown from Allen in the fourth quarter of a game against the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium on December 11, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images)
Remember that early-season game that the Bills blew at Miami? Well you be certain Buffalo does. And then there’s this: last week, in Los Angeles, the Dolphins wanted heaters on the sideline in 55-degree weather. So what are they going to request in Buffalo? Jet engines? Look, the Dolphins are a good team. But there’s a lot stacked against them this week. We’re all on the same page on this one. Bills. Maybe in a rout. Pick: Buffalo.
Philadelphia (-9) at Chicago
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 11: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs the ball during the first half against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Look at the picture of Allen up above in the Buffalo game. Now look at the photo of Hurts. Know what you should see? Snow. And two quarterbacks who can run. Many like to point out that football changes significantly in December and January because of the weather. To me, that means that you’re better off with as many options as possible on offense. With the Bills and the Eagles, we’re certainly going to find out. One thing to note: Bears quarterback Justin Fields is also a runner. I’m with Murray as the Eagles feel like they’re clicking again. Felger loses here. Pick: Philadelphia.
Kansas City (-14) at Houston
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 11: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates with fans after defeating the Denver Broncos 34-28 at Empower Field At Mile High on December 11, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Know what I find interesting above this photo of Patrick Mahomes? He even sticks his tongue out when he’s greeting fans. Talk about a quirk. Frankly, Mahomes can stick his tongue out as much as he likes because he’s the best quarterback in the league. The Chiefs’ victory over Denver last week was needlessly close – as was the Texas loss at Dallas. Murray likes the points. I’m with Felger because I think Kansas City is a far more elite operation. Pick: Kansas City.
Dallas (-4.5) at Jacksonville
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 11: Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys prior to a game against the Houston Texans at AT&T Stadium on December 11, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Say what you will about the Cowboys, but give them this: the Cowboys of old would have lost to Houston last week. But this Cowboys team went right down the field and scored a touchdown with the game on the line, which says something. Good teams often do what is necessary to win, however ugly that may prove to be. Dallas is legit. Murray likes the Jaguars at home here, but Felger and I are on the Cowboys. One thing to keep an eye on: Dallas and Philly both may be eyeing their rematch next week. Pick: Dallas.
Detroit (+1) at NY Jets
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 11: Head coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions shakes hands with head coach Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings on the field after the game at Ford Field on December 11, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)
Know what Kevin O’Connell is thinking during the above handshake with Dan Campbell? How did I beat Bill Belichick and get trucked by this guy? Thus the phrase, on any given Sunday. That said, the Lions are as hot as any team in football right now and are facing a good Jets defense, albeit with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Big test here for Detroit and a game that could have big playoff implications for both. Felger and Murray both like the Jets. I’d love to disagree just so I could call them morons, but I also like the J-E-T-S. Pick: New York.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Carolina
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – DECEMBER 11: Head coach Steve Wilks of the Carolina Panthers looks on from the sideline during the fourth quarter of the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on December 11, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)
At the risk of incurring a backlash, I would like to declare the following: Carolina coach Steve Wilks should be a serious candidate for Coach of the Year. When Matt Ruhle was fired, the Panther were 1-4. After losing the week Ruhle was dismissed – it was a fire-drill week for the Panthers – Carolina beat Tampa Bay and is 4-3 since. Felger likes the Steelers, who also have played better of late. Murray, like me, is on the Panthers. That Carolina defense is good. And they’re playing hard. Pick: Carolina.
Atlanta (+4.5) at New Orleans
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – DECEMBER 04: Marcus Mariota #1 of the Atlanta Falcons reacts after throwing an interception against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 04, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Serious question: is there a more useless game on the docket than this one? Seriously. The Falcons are as boring as it gets. I like the Saints brand, but they’re more anonymous this year than they have been in a long, long time. Murray – no shock here – goes to his default in a game like this, which is to say he’s picking the Falcons. Felger likes the Saints. I think New Orleans cares more about the NFL than Atlanta does so I’m going with the Saints. Atlanta is a joke. Pick: New Orleans.
Patriots (-1) at Las Vegas
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – AUGUST 26: (L-R) Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots and head coach Josh McDaniels of the Las Vegas Raiders shake hands after their preseason game at Allegiant Stadium on August 26, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
The matchup of Bill Belichick and one of his chief disciples will obviously get a lot of attention, but don’t take the cheese. The real confrontation with the Patriots these days is on the inside: Mac Jones vs. Matt Patricia. You may not want to hear this, but the Patriots are dysfunctional and everybody knows it. Despite that, somewhat incredible, Murray likes the Pats. (Not a misprint.) Felger and I both like the Raiders, who have one major obstacle in their path: their defense. Pick: Las Vegas.
Arizona (+3) at Denver
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 11: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos walks off the field after sustaining a concussion in the fourth quarter of a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field At Mile High on December 11, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Talk about a picture being worth a thousand words, eh? The Russell Wilson trade has been an unmitigated disaster for the Broncos who signed Wilson to a five-year contract for more than $240 million before the start of the season. (This is the kind of move the Red Sox would fear – and nonetheless make.) And yet, incredibly, I like the Broncos in this game because their defense is terrific and their offense can’t be much worse. The Cardinals stink. We’re all on Denver. Pick: Denver.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 11: Nick Bosa #97 of the San Francisco 49ers tackles Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium on December 11, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Joe Burrow is the closest thing in the NFL to Tom Brady. In fact, at this stage, he’s probably closer than Brady himself, who looked downright prehistoric at times last week. Felger still believes in the Brady thing and likes Tampa. Murray made a point of noting that he would still take the Bengals if the spread were -20. I don’t know if I’d go quite that far, but I do like the Bengals. Burrow is a bad mofo. Pick: Cincinnati.
Tennessee (+3) at LA Chargers
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 04: Head coach Mike Vrabel of the Tennessee Titans calls out orders from the sidelines in the first half of a game against the Philadelphia Eagles Lincoln Financial Field on December 04, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Remember when some people were trumpeting Mike Vrabel as a potential successor for Bill Belichick? Well they haven’t changed their minds. (Ok, I mean me.) The Titans have hit the skids here a bit, but this is a bigger game for the Chargers. Los Angeles has the superior team and the superior quarterback. Tennessee is coming off a bad loss and has the better coach. The titans also feel a lot tougher. Felger likes the Chargers. Murray and I like the Titans. Pick: Tennessee.
NY Giants (+4.5) at Washington (Sunday night)
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 11: Saquon Barkley #26 of the New York Giants walks off the field after being defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles 48-22 at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
By now, everyone knows the story: Pats-Raiders got flexed out, Giants-Commanders got flexed in. That speaks volumes. My personal issue is the idea that Saquon Barkley should be Comeback Player of the Year. Personally, I think the award should go first to come like Geno Smith. If I’ve said this before, I’m saying it again. Geno Smith is a better story than Saquon Barkley. Murray and Felger both like the Giants. I also like the points. Pick: New York.
LA Rams (+7) at Green Bay
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 08: Baker Mayfield #17 of the Los Angeles Rams warms up before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at SoFi Stadium on December 08, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
So I searched for photos of Baker Mayfield online and you know what I found? He’s fat. I mean, he looks like Brian Daboll. Mayfield’s win over the Raiders just a couple of days after being claimed on waivers is a nice story, but let’s be honest: it was really far more of a reflection on the ineptitude of the Raiders defense. Felger likes Green Bay here. (Shocker.) Murray’s taking the cheese on Baker. You’re right, Mike! Pick: Green Bay.
