The man in the photo above? Obviously, that’s Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen. You won’t be seeing him until December, at least not in Foxboro. But remember that statistic about how many victories Tom Brady had in Buffalo over the years? Well we can’t help but wonder whether we’ll be saying something similar about Allen at Gillette Stadium when we get to, say, 2035.
So why are we bringing this up today?
Because the Bills are a freaking wagon, that’s why.
And so, for the third straight week, we here at Pick It and Stick It are going with the Bills at Miami this week, despite the protestations of yours truly. (See below.) And in case you’re wondering, we’re coming off a rock solid 9-7 performance in Week 2 that gets us back to .500 at precisely 16-16 through two weeks, which is hardly anything to sneeze at when picking every game on the NFL slate every week.
Does that make us the Bills of the wagering community? Hell no. But it doesn’t make us the Carolina Panthers, either.
Once again, we took the democratic approach in Week 3, with Felger, Mazz and Murray casting votes for each game. The majority ruled. (Odds via Draft Kings as of 12:45 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 22.)
Last week: 9-7.
Season to date: 16-16.
Pittsburgh (+4.5) at Cleveland (Thursday night)
PITTSBURGH, PA – AUGUST 13: Kenny Pickett #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers in action during a preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks at Acrisure Stadium on August 13, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
Wow, talk about a suckbag Thursday night game. Seriously. Last week, my logic was to take the points and pick the Jets against Cleveland because both teams had bad quarterbacks – and I was right. But after watching Mitch Trubisky and that Pittsburgh offense last week, yeesh. Felger likes the Steelers here. Murray and I like the Browns. Pick: Cleveland.
Baltimore (-2.5) at New England
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 18: Quarterback Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens runs for a fourth quarter touchdown in front of cornerback Xavien Howard #25 of the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Can the Pats contain Lamar Jackson? Sure. Can they score in the mid- to high-20s? It doesn’t feel like it. Last week, we all picked Pittsburgh and the Pats won, though they just barely covered the two-point spread. This week, we’re all picking the Ravens. What a stunner. Pick: Baltimore.
New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – SEPTEMBER 11: Michael Thomas #13 of the New Orleans Saints celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Guess what? Felger loses again. The Saints lost to the Bucs last week and Carolina lost to the Giants, so the bounce-back factor works for both. I usually like home dogs, but I have to be getting more than three points. Murray’s on my side. Felger can go pound sound. Pick: New Orleans.
Houston (+3) at Chicago
DENVER, COLORADO – SEPTEMBER 18: Davis Mills #10 of the Houston Texans carries the ball in the second quarter of the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on September 18, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Know what this spread tells you? It tells you that the oddsmakers think the Bears and Texans equally suck. The Bears are at home. Houston has the better quarterback – and maybe a guy the Patriots should have picked instead of Mac Jones. Just sayin’. Once again, Murray and I win out. Felger is 0-for-3. Pick: Houston.
Kansas City (-5.5) at Indianapolis
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 18: Matt Ryan #2 of the Indianapolis Colts reacts after a tackle in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on September 18, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Everybody in the world loves the Chiefs, who are 2-0 while a dreadful Colts team is 0-1-1. This game feels so lopsided that giving up roughly a touchdown feels like a steal … which always makes me nervous. Like a dope, Murray is taking the cheese. Felger and I are just plain smarter. Pick: Indianapolis.
Buffalo (-6) at Miami
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 18: Head coach Mike McDaniel of the Miami Dolphins talks with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins in the second half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Unfortunately, in this format, we all eventually get overruled. Division game. Two unbeaten teams. Decent spread. In this scenario, I’m taking the points. Felger and Murray are clearly caught up in the Buffalo hype – and justifiably so. But something is going to go wrong for that team eventually. Pick: Buffalo.
Detroit (+6) at Minnesota
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – SEPTEMBER 18: Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions plays against the Washington Commanders at Ford Field on September 18, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
We warned you last week that Kirk Cousins loses on the road – he’s now 24-37-2 – but the opposite is also true. He’s good at home. Murray is so enamored with the Lions that I knew he would pick them – and he did. Felger went with Minnesota and the Lions are due to get their asses kicked. Pick: Minnesota.
Cincinnati (-6) at NY Jets
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 18: Micah Parsons #11 of the Dallas Cowboys reacts after sacking Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Like I said, I have this thing about home dogs getting more than three points – and the Jets this week are getting almost a touchdown. That said, the Bengals’ season may be at stake and there’s no way they are as bad as they looked at Dallas. Bill Belichick was onto to Cincinnati. We’re all on Cincinnati. Pick: Cincinnati.
Las Vegas (-1.5) at Tennessee
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 18: Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders reacts after an overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals at Allegiant Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
I had the Raiders as a dark horse candidate in the AFC this year, but that debacle against Arizona last week has shaken my confidence. Did anyone else think Derek Carr looked panic-stricken at the end of that game? We all have Tennessee here, probably because the Titans are just tougher. Pick: Tennessee.
Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – SEPTEMBER 19: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after beating the Minnesota Vikings 24-7 at Lincoln Financial Field on September 19, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Take a look at this photo. Does Jalen Hurts love himself some Jalen Hurts or what? And you know who loves Hurts almost as much as Hurts loves himself? Murray. As for Felger, the self-proclaimed Commander likes the Commanders. I am here to tell you that Carson Wentz is tied for the NFL lead in touchdown passes and ranks second in yards – and he’s at home against his former team. Pick: Washington.
Jacksonville (+7) at LA Chargers
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 18: Trevor Lawrence #16 prepares for the snap from Luke Fortner #79 of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at TIAA Bank Field on September 18, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
Felger and Murray both like the Jags here, which seriously has me reconsidering the depths of my partners’ stupidity. I’m not joking. The Jags have looked decent so far. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is banged up. But Jacksonville is not ready for this kind of challenge yet. I do not endorse this selection. Pick: Jacksonville.
LA Rams (-3.5) at Arizona
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 18: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates after the game-winning touchdown in overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
Truth be told, I wouldn’t bet this game with your money. The Rams don’t look right and I lean toward the home team taking the points. I’m no Kyler Murray fan, but the Cardinals are coming off the kind of win that can galvanize a team and they got absolutely dope-slapped by the Rams in the playoffs last year. (Jim) Murray and Felger win out. Pick: Los Angeles.
Atlanta (+1) at Seattle
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – MARCH 13: The Space Needle stands over the Seattle skyline on March 13, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. The iconic observation tower was constructed in 1962 for the World’s Fair and was once, at 605 feet, the tallest structure west of the Mississippi River. The Space Needle remains a top tourist attraction, despite the city’s recent struggles with an uptick in homelessness and violent crime. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)
I lose again. Anyone sense a pattern here? Felger and Murray have the Falcons. I have the Seahawks. As for the photo, in a game featuring Marcus Mariota and Geno Smith at quarterback, I opted for the Seattle skyline. I just couldn’t bring myself to highlight a single player from what is sure to be a dreadful game. Pick: Atlanta.
Green Bay (+1) at Tampa Bay
FOXBOROUGH, MA – NOVEMBER 04: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots talks with Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers after the Patriots defeated the Packers 31-17 at Gillette Stadium on November 4, 2018 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Is is just me or, in this photo, does Tom Brady like he’s about to move in for a kiss? Honestly, I wanted to also include a photo of these two lovebirds yucking it up on the golf course for that stupid match they played, but I couldn’t figure out the proper formatting and gave up. The mutual admiration between these two is sickening. Anyway, we all like the Bucs. Pick: Tampa Bay.
San Francisco (-1.5) at Denver (Sunday night)
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 18: Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Interesting, isn’t it? Jimmy Garoppolo gets restored as Niners quarterback and San Francisco wins. Funny how that happens. Denver is bound to play better at some point, but it’s hard to pick the Broncos with Nathaniel (Buddy) Hackett as coach, especially now the the rightful king in San Francisco has been restored to the throne. We’re all with Jimmy G. here. Pick: San Francisco.
Dallas (+1) at NY Giants (Monday night)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 18: Cooper Rush #10 of the Dallas Cowboys passes the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half at AT&T Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Finally, a disagreement! The Giants are a nice story, but let’s get real – they’re not ready for a Cowboys defense that has looked pretty good so far against two of the better quarterbacks in the league (Tom Brady and Joe Burrow). The Giants are a nice story, but they still blow. Murray and I know this. Apparently, Felger doesn’t. Pick: Dallas.
