For the last few years, NFL fans have been spoiled with tremendous receiver class after tremendous receiver class in the NFL Draft. After a few years of that, it felt like maybe having multiple generational wide receiver prospects in the draft every year was going to be the new norm.
This year, the overall talent in the draft at the receiver position has come back to the norm – or maybe even dropped a little below it. That doesn’t mean that there are no NFL-caliber players at the position, but the top of this class isn’t as strong, and it’s thinner in later round.
First round
Nov 13, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) makes the catch during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
There are four receivers projected as first-round locks this year. They are Quentin Johnston of TCU, Jaxon Smith-Njigba of Ohio State, Zay Flowers of Boston College, and Jordan Addison of USC.
That may sound like depth at the position, but many are projected to go that high out of teams reaching for a valuable position. If any of those four were in last year’s class, they would have fallen outside of the top five at the position, and been at most fringe first-rounders rather than locks.
Still, that doesn’t mean there’s no talent looking into. Prior to signing JuJu Smith-Schuster, Smith-Njigba made a ton of sense for the Patriots as a Jakobi Meyers replacement. His route-running and short-area quickness is elite, but it’s tough to see how there would be enough snaps for both him and Smith-Schuster – both ‘big slot’ receivers – to justify the pick.
When it comes to Johnston, he’s a high-upside deep-threat receiver who will need to adjust to more complicated coverages coming from the Big 12. While he could be the player the Patriots need, his makeup at this point is similar to Tyquan Thornton’s. It would make more sense to focus on Thornton’s development, coming off of his rookie year, than using another top-50 asset on a similar player.
If the Patriots are going to take a receiver with the 14th pick, Flowers and Addison make the most sense. With Kendrick Bourne’s standing uncertain after last season, if the team wants to move on from him those two players could contribute in similar roles with perhaps more upside. The 14th pick is probably a little rich for an upgrade like that though.
Day 2 boundary receivers
Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman (4) during Tennessee’s game against Georgia at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. (Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel/USA Today Network)
Day 2 is where a wide receiver pick makes much more sense for the Patriots. With DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne both in contract years, preparing beyond 2023 makes sense. There’s less pressure for those players to contribute immediately.
We’ll start with the boundary receivers. Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt is currently projected as an early Day 2 pick, although some think he could sneak into the first round. At 6-foot, 176 pounds, he ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at the Combine. He’s primarily a vertical player though, but inconsistencies and a limited route tree will give some teams pause. Again, with his skillset he would overlap a lot with Thornton.
While Hyatt has drawn most of the attention of the Tennessee receivers in this draft, his teammate Cedric Tillman may actually be a better fit for the Patriots. A big (6-foot-3, 213 pounds), tough receiver who excels in contested-catch situations, he could push Parker for the primary ‘X’ role in 2023, and at the very least be a strong candidate to take over there in 2024.
Rashee Rice from SMU is somewhat between Hyatt and Tillman. Bigger than Hyatt and faster than Tillman, and has that deep play ability while being able to fight for the football. Still inconsistencies both with route running and his hands have been an issue.
The wild card in this class is Kayshon Boutte from LSU. At one point viewed as the top receiver in this class, Boutte struggled to produce in 2022 then had an odd sequence of events lead to him leaving the program prior to the Tigers’ bowl game. Combine that with a rough Combine performance, and it’s tough to project his stock. Teams may love his upside – he’s drawn comps to Deebo Samuel – and see him as a value pick, or be scared off by his lack of production, poor Combine testing, and inconsistent availability.
Finally here, the Patriots have met with Tyler Scott of Cincinnati. Scott, who was a Junior Olympic sprinter and ran a 4.44 at the Combine, can play both on the boundary and in the slot. A successful scheme-touch player, he could be a target if the Patriots want to add raw speed to their offense both horizontally as well as veristically.
Day 2 slot receivers
Nov 12, 2022; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Josh Downs (11) leaps for a catch covered by Wake Forest Demon Deacons defensive back Evan Slocum (14) during the first half at Truist Field. Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The real strength of this receiver class is in the slot, and nowhere is that more apparent than in the 40-100 range of the draft. While the group as a whole dropped off a bit during the Combine, there are still players that will turn into solid NFL contributors here. Again, with Smith-Schuster on the roster is tough to project roles for some of these players, but outside of the first round the selections would make a little more sense.
One way to make it work is bring in a different type of slot receiver to complement Smith-Schuster. The first name that comes to mind is Josh Downs from UNC, who is much more of a shifty slot (ex. Edelman, Welker). Downs is no stranger to being in a volume role, with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with 101 and 94 catches in 2021 and 2022 respectively. If they don’t get Downs in the second, Parker Washington from Penn State is also a crafty slot expected to go in the third.
Or, the Patriots could bring in a speed slot such as Marvin Mims from Oklahoma. Mims played mostly on the boundary at Oklahoma but did log 220 snaps inside last year, and projects to be a slot receiver in the NFL. He can stretch the field vertically as well as horizontally, and has tremendous body control when having to go outside his frame to make catches. No player in this draft has a better spectacular catch highlight reel than he does. Tank Dell from Houston would be the speed slot to know in the third round.
Xavier Hutchinson from Iowa State is also expected to go on Day 2. He’s a big slot similar to Meyers, who had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl.
Early Day 3 boundary receivers
Sep 10, 2022; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Bryce Ford-Wheaton (0) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second quarter at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
It’s time to talk about one of the most fun players in this draft – Bryce Ford-Wheaton from West Virginia. Ford-Wheaton is 6-foot-4, 221 pounds and had a terrific Combine running a 4.38 second 40 a 6.97-second 3-cone, 4.15 second shuttle, and recording a 41-inch vertical. At the Shrine Bowl, director Eric Galko compared his physical abilities to D.K. Metcalf, and at the Combine Ford-Wheaton lived up to that comp.
Ford-Wheaton’s tape is limited, with 62 catches, 675 yards, and seven touchdowns in 12 games in a career year in 2022. He’s inconsistent, but there are flashes that suggest the upside of a player that can be a key contributor. In addition to that wide receiver upside, he played a significant special teams role for the Mountaineers. The Patriots could play him in the kicking game and in a limited role as needed at wide receiver in 2023, and prepare him to take over the ‘X’ role in 2024.
Staying with the Shrine Bowl, A.T. Perry from Wake Forest got some attention at that game. At 6-foot-3, 198 pounds, Perry’s upside as a route-runner makes him an intriguing prospect as both an ‘X’ and a big slot.
Jayden Reed from Michigan State should draw some attention here too. Reed failed to match his 2021 1,026-yard, 10-touchdown production from 2021 in 2022, but reminded teams what he’s capable of with a very impressive Senior Bowl performance. He projects as a deep threat in the NFL.
Another Senior Bowl standout was Michael Wilson from Stanford. Wilson’s size and explosiveness offer a lot to like, but injuries are a concern. He’s played just 14 games total in the last three years, with a foot injury ending his 2020 season and an undisclosed injury cutting his season short this past fall.
Ronnie Bell from Michigan seems like a Patriots kind of receiver as well. A well-balanced player, his after-the-catch ability would play well in Bill O’Brien’s offense.
Early Day 3 slot receivers
SYRACUSE, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 17: Charlie Jones #15 of the Purdue Boilermakers dives a catch as Garrett Williams #8 of the Syracuse Orange defends him during the first quarter at JMA Wireless Dome on September 17, 2022 in Syracuse, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
Starting here with Charlie Jones from Purdue, who did a lot to help his case at the Combine. Viewed initially as a shifty slot receiver and drawing some comparisons to Jakobi Meyers, Jones ran a 4.43 40 at the Combine – a much better time than was initially expected. If he can play at that speed with his route-running ability, he could end up being a steal.
Rakim Jarrett from Maryland could be a Patriots fit, given their history of targeting highly-ranked high school recruits who didn’t maximize their potential in college for one reason or another (ex. J.C. Jackson). In the Class of 2020, Jarrett was a five-star recruit and the fourth-ranked receiver in his class, ahead of Smith-Njigba (who was 5th), Johnston (14th), Downs (17th), Mims (29th), and Hyatt (33rd) from this draft class.
Jarrett had a big 2021 season, catching 62 passes for 829 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games. Last season he took a bit of a step back statistically, but at times showed explosiveness and ball-carrying ability NFL teams should be excited about.
Late Day 3 boundary receivers
BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 16: Justin Shorter #4 of the Florida Gators catches the ball for a touchdown on a Hail Mary pass as Jay Ward #5 of the LSU Tigers defends during the first half at Tiger Stadium on October 16, 2021 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
If the Patriots are going to wait to take a receiver, they got a good look at a number of players in this range at the Shrine Bowl. The player highlighting this range is Justin Shorter from Florida. Just watching Shorter in person, he looks more like a tight end than wideout at 6-foot-4, 229 pounds. There are few cornerbacks that are going to beat Shorter for the ball at the catch-point, and his body control makes him a weapon along the sidelines and in the red zone.
Michael Jefferson from Louisiana and Joseph Ngata from Clemson also stood out in Las Vegas. Ngata in particular has a couple of intangible traits that would link him to the Patriots – he’s another top high school recruit, and played a regular special teams role for the Tigers.
Late Day 3 slot receivers
BOCA RATON, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 20: Demario Douglas #3 of the Liberty Flames carries the ball against the Toledo Rockets during the first half of the RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl game at FAU Stadium on December 20, 2022 in Boca Raton, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Staying with the Shrine Bowl here, and a player who got a lot of attention on the Patriots’ West team. With Zay Flowers only practicing one day, Demario Douglas of Liberty got most of the looks in the slot during the week. Both fast and quick, Douglas proved to be a hassle for defenders in open space. There will be questions about his size and level of competition, but this late in the draft he’d be worth the investment.
Our last slot receiver is Jake Bobo from UCLA. From Concord, Mass., Bobo is a big slot at 6-foot-5, 215 pounds. There are some similarities in his game to Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who the Patriots found a role for last year.
UDFAs
Sep 17, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Aron Cruickshank (1) stiff-arms Temple Owls cornerback Jalen McMurray (7) in the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots have invested in their special teams and kick coverage units quite a bit this offseason, and there’s no reason to think that will stop at the draft. They’ve had success landing core special teamers in college wide receivers before, and some players may even be able to contribute on offense at times as well.
Aron Cruickshank from Rutgers caught a career-high 42 passes for 385 yards this season, and has also been one of the best kick returners in college football the last few seasons. DJ Matthews from Indiana, is another potential returner.
Shedrick Jackson from Auburn was Auburn’s gunner on their punt team this year, and also one of their starting wide receivers. Jackson, the nephew of NFL and MLB legend Bo Jackson, then ran a 4.25 40 at his Pro Day.
We’ll close things out with Shocky Jacques-Louis from Akron. He spent his first four seasons at Pitt, playing a rotational receiving role while also covering kicks and punts. In his lone season with the Zips he put up career best numbers with 74 catches for 917 yards, while still playing on special teams. As a receiver, his strength is in his route running, especially in the intermediate part of the field.
