Our 2023 NFL Draft positional preview wraps up on the defensive side of the ball (but not entirely) with safeties. Overall, this is a down year for safeties in the draft, especially deep/free safeties.
It’s also hard to get a read on just how much the Patriots view safety as a need. Devin McCourty’s retirement clearly opens up a hole on the back end. Yet the team didn’t make any signings there, and seems if anything they plan to handle his replacement internally given reports that Jalen Mills will make the move from cornerback to safety, and bringing back Jonathan Jones on a contract that would be more in line for a hybrid player than a true cornerback.
First round
Sep 24, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Brian Branch (14) pursues Vanderbilt Commodores running back Ray Davis (2) during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
The lone safety expected to go in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft is Brian Branch from Alabama. Branch is projected to be on the board when the Patriots pick at 14th overall.
Branch, at 6-foot, 190 pounds, is a prototypical Patriots safety, who plays all over the field. Last season he played mostly in the slot and as a box safety, but projects more as a hybrid slot corner and deep safety in the NFL. He can handle whatever role he’s tasked with from covering tight ends to running backs as well as stopping the run. Last year for the Tide in 13 games he had 90 tackles, with 14 for a loss and three sacks, while interceptions two passes with an additional seven pass breakups.
What allows Branch to be so dominant is how quickly he reads, processes, and reacts to what is happening in front of him. When put in a defensive as complex as the Patriots’ system, he could really maximize his abilities.
Second round
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 31: Jordan Battle #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide intercepts a pass to Deuce Vaughn #22 of the Kansas State Wildcats during the first quarter of the Allstate Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome on December 31, 2022 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
Alabama doesn’t just have the top safety in the draft. The first two players at the position may both be from the same defense.
That’s if a team makes Jordan Battle the second safety pick. Battle, at 6-foot-1, 209 pounds, is also positionally versatile. Last season he played 129 snaps as a slot corner, 196 in the box, and 574 at deep safety. Like Branch, he’s a high-IQ instinctive player who is rarely caught out of position. If the Patriots want a one-for-one replacement for McCourty, Battle is their best option in this draft.
Only other other safety is projected to go in the top 63 picks – Antonio Johnson from Texas A&M. At 6-foot-2, 198 pounds Johnson has drawn comparisons to both Dugger and Adrian Phillips during the pre-draft process. He’s a box safety who can be a plus in the run game, and can matchup with tight ends in coverage. If the Patriots want to stick with a ‘positionless’ secondary, he’d fit into the safety rotation.
Third round
Dec 29, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive back Jammie Robinson (10) in the first half against the Oklahoma Sooners in the 2022 Cheez-It Bowl at Camping World Stadium. Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
One of the few safeties the Patriots have met with in this class is Jammie Robinson from Florida State. Robinson has been a fast riser late in the process, impressing at his pro day. At Florida State began his career mainly as a slot corner, but the last two years lined up mostly as a deep safety while also playing more snaps in the box.
Wherever he lines up, Robinson plays at 100 percent on every snap. When he gets to the football, he usually ends up making a play. He’s a bit undersized to be playing in the box in the NFL at 5-foot-11, 191 pounds but has the demeanor to offset that. His aggressive nature will get the best of him at times as well. His exact NFL role is tough to project, but he can play. The Patriots generally do well with those kinds of safeties. In New England, they’d probably try him at free safety first.
While Robinson has versatility among safety positions, Jartavius Martin from Illinois is a true hybrid defensive back. Martin – who is listed by some outlets as a cornerback and others as a safety – was mainly a slot cornerback for the Illini but took on much more responsibility as a deep safety last year, while also playing some boundary corner at 5-foot-11, 194. He tested very well at the Combine with a 4.46-second 40 and 44-inch vertical. With that athleticism, he should be able to line up anywhere in the secondary with the right coaching.
Martin isn’t the only safety from a strong Illinois defensive backfield expected to go in this range. Sydney Brown was highly productive as a box safety for the Illini, recording six pass breaks and six interceptions last year, as well as 3.5 tackles for loss and a sack.
As for true free safeties, Christopher Smith II from Georgia is the player in this range. Smith was the Bulldogs’ primary deep safety for their championship runs the last two years, while also playing more in the box last year. He was very productive in that time, with six picks in the last two years. However, his Combine testing numbers could see him fall down the board (4.62-second 40, 33-inch vertical at 5-foot-11, 192 pounds).
Day 3
Nov 5, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes safety Ronnie Hickman (14) tackles Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Brendan Sullivan (10) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ryan Field. Ohio State won 21-7. Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch
Despite the Buckeyes’ recent run of success, the Patriots haven’t drafted a player from Ohio State in 10 years (Nate Ebner, 2012 6th round). Could that change this year, with new director of college scouting Camren Williams a former Buckeye himself?
If the Patriots are open to Ohio State players this year, Ronnie Hickman would make a lot of sense for them (and not just because he was an All-American lacrosse player in high school). Hickman split his time evenly last year between box safety, free safety, and slot corner and was targeted just 30 times in 408 coverage snaps – allowing 13 catches for 107 yards with an interception, five pass breakups, and just one penalty called.
Hickman might not have the straight-line speed needed to play single-high in the NFL, but his football IQ and instincts help him play faster than he is. He should be able to line up at the other safety spots in the secondary. He also has significant special teams experience. At the Senior Bowl, he played for DeMarcus Covington.
Another safety the Patriots are familiar with is Trey Dean from Florida, who they worked with at the Shrine Bowl. Dean came away from Shrine Bowl week a big winner for his performance – he was named the game’s defensive MVP and went from being a projected UDFA to potential top-100 pick. However he lost that momentum with a rough Combine performance, which has dropped his stock back to the middle of Day 3 (he later tweeted he was hurt at the Combine).
The Patriots seemed to like working with Dean, so they still may have him on their board despite his Combine struggles. If they can land him, he’d be another versatile defensive back with an ability to play deep, in the slot, and also at boundary corner at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds. He also has the potential to be a core special teamer. If they liked what they saw at the Shrine Bowl, especially how often he gets his hands on the football, they may see him as a value pick.
The theme of versatility and familiarity continues with Jay Ward from LSU. Ward, who met with the Patriots at the Combine, mainly played slot corner for the Tigers but projects as more of a box safety who, at 6-foot-1, 188 pounds, can be a matchup player against tight ends and big slot receivers.
Day 3’s true deep safety is DeMarcco Hellams from Alabama. Yes, another Alabama safety. Hellams was the Tide’s other deep safety next to Battle. He comes into the draft with three years of starting experience, and is a sound tackler as the last player between a breakaway ball-carrier and the end zone. However, he lacks the athletic profile of Branch or Battle.
One other name to know at safety is JL Skinner from Boise State. Skinner is a big, physical box safety at 6-foot-4, 209 pounds who was projected to be a potential top 100 pick before suffering a torn pectoral in workouts leading up to the Combine. That leaves his status for the 2023 season up in the air while impacting his draft stock. Given that, the Patriots might see him as a value pick who fits their play style at the position on Day 3. They’ve made similar picks before, such as Cameron McGrone and Joshuah Bledsoe – players coming off of injuries which impacted their draft stocks.
UDFAs
HOUSTON, TX – NOVEMBER 16: Gervarrius Owens #32 of the Houston Cougars blocks a punt by Adam Williams #48 of the Memphis Tigers in the fourth quarter at TDECU Stadium on November 16, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
While this is an overall weaker safety class, the group of safeties at the Shrine Bowl put on a good showing. Many are project players projected to go undrafted, but should have done enough to get onto the Patriots’ radar for a potential training camp invite.
The top free safeties at the event were Gervarrius Owens from Houston, Jordan Howden from Minnesota, Christian Izien from Rutgers, and A.J. Finley from Ole Miss. Tyreque Jones from Boise State was the top box safety, and is an imposing presence in the box at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds.
Two other non-Shrine Bowl UDFA safeties to know are Christian Young from Arizona and Avery Young from Rutgers. Christian Young is another versatile defensive back who could be a matchup piece against tight ends at 6-foot-3, 225 pounds. He was coached by former Patriots QB coach Jedd Fisch, who is now the head coach at Arizona. Avery Young has been Rutgers’ main deep safety the last two years, but played more in the slot last season.
We’ve talked a lot about safety/cornerback hybrid players, but what about hybrid safety/linebackers? There are two UDFAs who stand out there. One, Jaiden Woodbey from Boston College, was on the Patriots Shrine Bowl team and they were at his Pro Day. Amari Burney from Florida is another player fitting that mold.
