First round
TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA – NOVEMBER 19: Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass against the Austin Peay Governors during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
For those of you hoping the Patriots take a quarterback in the first round, brace yourselves for the bad news. Even if the team wanted to make such a pick (and thus far the majority of this offseason has suggested the opposite), the board is stacked heavily against them. There are four quarterbacks with true first-round talent in this draft, and they’re all expected to go in the top 10, perhaps in the top five. It would take a significant move for the Patriots to move up and get one – a move they may not have the assets for.
Bryce Young from Alabama, C.J. Stroud from Ohio State, and Anthony Richardson from Florida are all projected to be in the running for the top pick. Will Levis from Kentucky is the fourth player from the group, but still projected to go well in the top 10. With as many as seven potentially QB-needy teams in the top 10 (and that’s before trades), those four should fly off the board well before the 14th pick.
Day 2
ATHENS, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 05: Hendon Hooker #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers looks to pass against the Georgia Bulldogs during the first quarter at Sanford Stadium on November 05, 2022 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
This draft is short on quarterbacks, and structured very stagnantly at the position. After the four quarterbacks expected to go in the top 10, only two others are projected to go in the top 100. They are Hendon Hooker from Tennessee, who is a projected second-round pick, and Tanner McKee from Stanford, who is a projected third-round pick.
Hooker had a tremendous season for the Vols this year. Leading Tennessee’s big-play-driven offense, he completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 3,135 yards and 27 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He added another 430 yards and five touchdowns rushing.
For that performance, Hooker was viewed by many as a Heisman favorite and potential first-round pick until he tore his ACL in late November. While it’s been reported he expects to be ready to start the season, any missed time is extra costly for Hooker, who will be a 25-year-old rookie. Given his age, combined with the fact he is coming off a serious knee injury, his ceiling is significantly lower than the other top quarterbacks in the draft.
McKee is more of a traditional pocket passer. He has a lot in common as a player with his predecessor at Stanford, Davis Mills. For the Patriots, such a selection wouldn’t make much sense for a number of reasons. If they’re looking to make a change at the quarterback position, he wouldn’t add anything Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe don’t bring to the table (with those two having higher ceilings as well).
Day 3
PROVO, UT – OCTOBER 30: Jaren Hall #3 of the BYU Cougars throws a pass against the Virginia Cavaliers during their game October 30, 2021 at the LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
If the Patriots do want to add a project quarterback who will bring a different dynamic to the room in this year’s draft, it makes the most sense for them to do so on Day 3. And they should have some options.
Jaren Hall from BYU is the best option here, in the fourth or fifth round. Stepping in for Zach Wilson under center for the Cougars, he put up number on-par with the 2021 second-overall pick. Unlike Wilson, he was named a team captain not once, but twice in Provo.
Another name Patriots fans are already probably somewhat familiar with is Dorian Thompson-Robinson – or DTR – from UCLA. It’d be hard to find a quarterback in any draft more experienced than Robinson, who was a five-year starter for Chip Kelly and the Bruins. His production showed all five years, culminating in a career year in 2022 when he completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 3,154 yards and 27 touchdowns, with another 646 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground.
The Patriots got a chance to work with Thompson-Robinson at the Shrine Bowl, and seemed to like what they saw. Highlighting Dorian Thompson’s week was his displaying a more compact throwing motion, something he said he’d worked on with a throwing coach when his season ended.
Max Duggan could also be an option towards the end of Day 3. Duggan came out of nowhere to lead TCU to the College Football Playoff in 2022, and had a strong showing at the Combine running a 4.52 second 40-yard dash. He’s still very raw, but at this point the pick would be completely about upside rather that immediate contribution.
If the Patriots want to take a quarterback but want a player in the same mold of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, the names to know on Day 3 would be Jake Haener from Fresno State, Clayton Tune from Houston, Tanner Morgan from Minnesota, Aidan O’Connell from Purdue, and Chase Brice from Appalachian State. The Patriots worked with Brice at the Shrine Bowl, while Morgan and O’Connell were there on the other team.
UDFAs
Dec 27, 2022; Birmingham, Alabama, USA; East Carolina Pirates quarterback Holton Ahlers (12) throws against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in the 2022 Birmingham Bowl at Protective Stadium. Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
There is one UDFA in this class that is really fascinating, and that’s Holton Ahlers from East Carolina. The big (6-foot-4, 230 pounds) lefty put up some gaudy numbers in 2022 for the Pirates in his fifth year as a starter. He completed 67.2 percent of his 469 pass attempts for 3,708 yards with 28 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also ran for 290 yards from scrimmage and scored another six times on the ground.
Ahlers didn’t make it to either of the big showcase games, but pulled a rare move and went to two of the smaller ones – the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl and Hula Bowl. He won MVP of both.
Given his athleticism and experience, Ahlers stands out as a strong practice squad/scout team candidate. With his size, it’s not unrealistic to think he could potentially make the move to tight end as well. Those are all ‘ifs,’ but he’s a fun player to know.
