Welcome to the third edition of the Milliken Mailbag! At the moment, the Red Sox are 12-10 and have bounced back with a series win over the Pirates after a miserable homestand. The rotation continues to be the best in baseball with a ridiculous 1.71 ERA, but the injury bug refuses to ease up with Triston Casas likely going down.
Thank you again to everyone who sent a question in! If you’d like to submit one next time, I usually post a tweet asking for submissions in the middle of each month. Questions can range from anything involving the big league club, to the minors, or any other topic surrounding the sport.
So, let’s dive into the submissions, even if I’m checking my phone constantly for an update on Triston Casas’ left rib discomfort.
1. Which position would the Red Sox benefit having Rafaela play more: shortstop or center field? – @SportsFellow_
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 01: Trevor Story #10 and Ceddanne Rafaela #43 of the Boston Red Sox celebrate after a win against the Oakland Athletics at Oakland Coliseum on April 01, 2024 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
Without a doubt, the best version of the Red Sox includes Ceddanne Rafaela at shortstop right now. You can’t afford to have David Hamilton holding down that position anymore with -2 Outs Above Average and 3 errors in 10 games. The poor guy is crow hopping multiple times to get the baseball to first base and is at constant war with his feet.
Rafaela isn’t perfect at shortstop, which we saw when he made an error early Friday night, but he’s already flashed more range and fluidity around the second base bag than Hamilton ever showed. On top of that, while Jarren Duran has looked elite in left field to start the season, he’s also handled center field nicely. That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone either because he held his own out there in 2023.
Last year, Duran finished in the 57th percentile for Outs Above Average and was in the 99th percentile for Outfield Jump. Nobody ever looked at Duran in 2023 and was framing him as the reason the Red Sox defense was historically bad in terms of Outs Above Average (-50). Instead, it was Kike Hernandez who was on a one-man mission to destroy the Red Sox with all his errors at shortstop.
At this point in Rafaela’s career, his glove and versatility are his biggest strength. We’ve seen that he’s a mess offensively, so this is how to get the most value out of him and ensure your team doesn’t completely collapse defensively. Some people think this will hurt Rafaela’s development, but I’m strictly against that considering he’s moved between the two positions with ease in the minors.
Another important variable to this is how the pieces fit once the outfield is fully healthy. The Red Sox are getting by with Rob Refsnyder playing daily right now, but once Tyler O’Neill returns for the series opener against the Guardians, he’ll obviously be in the lineup every day. At that point, platoon Wilyer Abreu and Rob Refsnyder and you have a pretty solid outfield group.
Abreu has proven that he deserves to face every righty the Red Sox come across after posting a 120 OPS+ in his first 17 games of the season. Not too bad for a guy who was scuffling and struggling to find at-bats a few weeks back. That type of offense is crucial with Triston Casas going down.
It’s telling how quickly the Red Sox changed their tone over the idea of Rafaela playing shortstop since Story went down. Maybe a couple wins could have been salvaged if they bent the knee a little earlier. Either way, more of Rafaela at shortstop and Abreu in the outfield is what this team needs right now if they hope to stay afloat with all of these injuries.
2. What happens when Marcelo Mayer is ready for the big leagues and Trevor Story is still on the team? Who moves to 2B? – @TrevorSanne3
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 05: Trevor Story #10 of the Boston Red Sox winces as he walks from the field after being injured going after a ball hit by Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels in the fourth inning during opening day of a Major League Baseball game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 5, 2024 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
Even before Trevor Story suffered a fractured glenoid in his left shoulder, I believed he’d transition over to second base once Marcelo Mayer was promoted to the big leagues. Mayer was drafted to be the organization’s shortstop of the future in 2021 and hasn’t shown any defensive struggles to change that outlook. Also, Story has already proved he can excel at second base and as he gets older it should be less stress on his body.
It’s going to be essential to keep Story healthy moving forward if the Red Sox hope to get any value out of his contract. Another intriguing layer of this conversation is whether the front office is over Rafael Devers’ defensive struggles and the injuries he’s been dealing with. I won’t say I’m that far down the road yet, but it’s something to consider since some think Mayer will eventually end up at third base as his body fills out.
Also, I want to take a moment to highlight Mayer’s strong start to the season in Double-A. He’s currently slashing .326/.347/.457/.803 with a homer, 3 doubles, and 2 stolen bases in 3 attempts. Yesterday, he snapped a 10-game hitting streak he opened the season with.
So, I still lean in the camp of Story moving over to second base. If Vaughn Grissom breaks out for the Red Sox this season, it could also push them towards the idea of Devers giving up a large chunk of his defensive responsibilities. Yet, it seems like the organization isn’t too keen on the idea of moving their $300 MM superstar to a role where he sits on the bench for 50% of the game.
3. If you could only pick one this off-season would you rather bring back Nick Pivetta or Tyler O’Neill on a long term deal? – @WilyerHitBall
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 03: Nick Pivetta #37 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after the Oakland Athletics hit into a double play with the bases loaded to end the fifth inning at Oakland Coliseum on April 3, 2024 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
I absolutely love Tyler O’Neill because of how badly the Red Sox need an impact bat from the right-side, but I have a hard time envisioning him as a long-term fit. Ceddanne Rafaela and Roman Anthony seem like locks to hold down a spot in the Red Sox outfield for the foreseeable future. So, unless the Red Sox are going to deal both Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu in one offseason, it’s probably not going to happen.
Not to mention, Duran and Abreu are on their rookie contracts, so the price tag will likely factor into any equation involving O’Neill. There are also injury concerns that have followed O’Neill throughout his career, which are only going to get worse as he enters his 30s. It’ll be a tough blow to his value if he can’t supply Gold Glove defense in the outfield as he starts to lose some of his athleticism.
Pivetta on the other hand has become the veteran leader of the starting rotation and is a rare innings eater in today’s game with upside. You could argue Lucas Giolito could serve a similar role next season as he returns from elbow surgery, but if the Red Sox aren’t ready to sign a #1 starter, it could make sense. Garrett Whitlock also complicates this equation a bit with his future role still up in the air.
It’s fair to wonder if the bullpen could make more sense for Whitlock if he continues to deal with injuries and there’s a need for high-leverage arms again. Justin Slaten and Whitlock have the chance to be a lethal duo late in games. So, a locked in rotation of Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Pivetta moving forward offers an intriguing floor and ceiling with room to add a top of the rotation starter in the coming years.
Neither O’Neill or Pivetta seem like obvious fits right now, but it’s only one month into the season. It’s easy to see the need for someone like Pivetta only increasing if Houck regresses or Crawford hits a wall with a heavier workload. The same goes for O’Neill if Anthony sees his development stall and Duran deals with another season-ending injury once again.
If I was a betting man though, I’d put it on Pivetta. He’s heavily entrenched himself in the city of Boston and has shown he can shine when the lights are the brightest in October. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if the Red Sox view him as an extension candidate this summer if he picks up right where he left off before the flexor tendon strain.
4. When the Red Sox try to sell at the deadline, do they have any players a contender would want? I guess Martin looked good on Thursday. – @JChalifour
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – MARCH 31: Tyler O’Neill #17 of the Boston Red Sox high-fives third base coach Kyle Hudson after hitting a solo home run during the second inning at T-Mobile Park on March 31, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
First off, I hate thinking about the trade deadline in the month of April, but that’s the outlook the Red Sox have right now. Honestly, even with Kenley Jansen looking like he’s on the verge of falling off a cliff, the organization still has some pretty valuable assets to move. After Chaim Bloom was heavily ridiculed for not selling at the trade deadline in 2023, I don’t think Craig Breslow will hesitate to ship out a few different pieces to get long-term assets back.
On the position player side of things, I’m looking at Tyler O’Neill and one of Jarren Duran/Wilyer Abreu. In terms of O’Neill, he’s a rental and if he returns to the freakish offensive input we saw to start the season, he’ll have a solid chunk of value to a contender looking for a middle of the order bat with strong outfield defense. Where things get interesting with Duran and Abreu is that both have come up in trade talks already and with Roman Anthony right around the corner, it might be time to clear that logjam up a bit.
Now, trading one of Duran or Abreu isn’t something I take lightly, so I’d need to get an impact piece in return. Duran is already looking ready to take another step forward in 2024 and despite a slow start from Abreu, he has a strong floor because of his plate approach and versatility in the outfield. But there’s only so much room in the outfield with Ceddanne Rafaela now being locked into an 8-year extension.
It’s a pretty similar situation at catcher as well, with both Connor Wong and Reese McGuire off to hot starts at the plate. Kyle Teel will be joining the mix in the next year, so it wouldn’t shock me to see one of them moved in a deal. McGuire only has one year of team-control remaining, with Wong not being a free agent until 2029.
I’ll also add that while Wong has had reverse splits for a majority of his big league career, so far this season he’s dominated lefties in a small sample. That might make it easier for him to pair with Teel moving forward, while also ensuring the Red Sox are spending very little behind the plate. We all know the organization has been high on Wong’s ability to work with pitchers over the years.
On the pitching side of things, Jansen and Chris Martin are obvious options as high-leverage bullpen arms about to hit free agency. In the rotation, a healthy Nick Pivetta could be your best trade asset if he continues his dominant breakout with the “whirlybird” slider. There aren’t too many guys who can eat innings and pivot between the rotation and bullpen in the playoffs on a dime.
More likely than not, the Red Sox will be willing to listen on anyone that isn’t part of the young core. The front office has made it clear that everyone is waiting on The Big 3 to reach the big leagues before they start properly investing in the team again. So, that could lead to role players like Brennan Bernardino or Rob Refsnyder also getting moved for an intriguing flier.
The trade deadline should be a great test to see what Craig Breslow can do with a bunch of assets ranging from rentals to long-term solutions in the outfield. It wouldn’t hurt to keep replenishing the pitching depth in the organization with other arms that resemble Richard Fitts and David Sandlin. Even with all the success the big league rotation has been having so far, it’s essential to maintain depth if you hope to make it through 162.
7. Love Casas, would be thrilled if they extended him…BUT, with Raffy banged up and at 10/$30M, maybe the thought is take 6 years of elite bat (with avg-to-below D, 0 speed), and NOT pay him 100’s of millions into his decline years? Might need 1B for Raffy down the line. Thoughts? – @blamontz
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – MARCH 30: Triston Casas #36 of the Boston Red Sox catches a ball for an out at first base during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on March 30, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
I’ll be honest, when it comes to the idea of Rafael Devers playing first base, I’m not sure if he could handle it. The last thing I want at first base is a guy who often loses focus in the field and botches routine opportunities. Throughout his career, It’s never been the rangy or tough plays at third base that have stumped him.
If Devers ends up moving off of third base on a daily basis, I’d expect him to move to the DH role. That way the Red Sox could maximize his biggest strength and keep him healthy for the entirety of his contract, while also strengthening their defense in a significant way. I don’t think his long-term outlook is going to impact how the Red Sox pursue Triston Casas in the coming years though.
If the Red Sox had their way, they would’ve already locked up Casas this spring based on the talks that took place. Unfortunately for ownership and the front office, the 2018 first-round pick knows that he is going to be an elite bat for years to come. You aren’t getting a ridiculous bargain when Casas has the 4th-best OPS in the AL over his last 100 games played.
While I liked the Brayan Bello extension and I’m more indifferent on Ceddanne Rafaela’s deal, Casas is the big fish the Red Sox front office should be worried about. You want him locked up while Anthony, Mayer, and Teel are all in their primes to create the biggest championship window possible. Still, Casas isn’t a free agent until 2029, so this isn’t anything to freak out about right now.
