Opening Day is quickly closing in, with it being less than two weeks before the Red Sox and Mariners faceoff at T-Mobile Park for Game 1 of 162. It’s been a wild ride of emotions since the last Milliken Mailbag, between Lucas Giolito going down for all of 2024 and Brayan Bello getting extended into the next decade. So, let’s dive right into the questions surrounding the big league club and the minor leagues with spring training winding down.
Thanks again to everyone who submitted a question! Check out the first Milliken Mailbag right here.
1. Have you come around to Ceddanne Rafaela making the Opening Day roster? – @williamsc979
At the start of the spring training, I was hesitant to bet on Ceddanne Rafaela making the club out of spring training. Between a crowded outfield group, the potential to get another year of team-control if he was kept in the minors through May 16th, and the concern over his swing decisions, it felt like he had to hit the ground running. Well, he’s done just that and it doesn’t hurt that Rob Refsnyder is set to begin the season on the IL, which eliminates another right-handed bat from a team starving for production from that side.
In 14 games this spring, Rafaela is slashing .256/.326/.584/.890 with 3 homers and 3 doubles for a 132 wRC+. It’s not like he’s been facing total slop either, with an opponent quality of 7.6. But beyond the results, it felt like Rafaela really had made his mark when Alex Cora went out of his way to complement the at-bats he was putting up.
There’s a bit of a misconception with Rafaela’s hitting profile at times that he needs to cut down on the strikeouts and walk more. While his 31.5% K% in the big leagues last season definitely needs to improve, he was at a respectable 21.9% mark in AAA, so I’m not concerned in that sense. I’d also love to see him walk more so his on-base percentage can tick up a bit, but with his aggressive contact profile, it doesn’t seem likely.
What the Red Sox want to see out of Rafaela is for him to make better swing decisions (42% OZ-Swing%). He has a habit of chasing bad pitches out of the zone and creating weak contact thanks to his bat-to–ball skills. Not ideal for a guy who clearly can drive the ball out of the ballpark, especially after hitting 11 homers in 48 games with the WooSox in 2023.
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