We’re back with the second part of this week’s Mock Draft Monday, presented by U.S. Pavement. If you missed Part 1, we published a full first round NFL Mock Draft Monday morning, and this is the continuation of that draft from the New England Patriots point of view. The idea behind both of these mock drafts is ‘what if the Patriots trade down?’
Many people (myself included) would like to see the Patriots take one of the top quarterbacks with the third overall pick. Assuming they believe in one of the top six quarterbacks, this would solidify the most important position in sports as the Jerod Mayo era begins.
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However, the team hasn’t been shy about saying publicly that they’re not locked into picking third overall. The strongest such comment came from Mayo two weeks ago at the NFL annual meetings, when he told reporters “I know everyone likes to think they have the special formula to picking players. But honestly, the guaranteed way to win is to accumulate more picks,” before adding “so if we don’t feel convicted [about a player] at number three, we are willing to do that as well.”
Our first two Patriots mock draft runs had the Patriots sticking at third overall to take a quarterback, assuming they’ll have the conviction in one of the top guys. While that still feels like the most likely outcome, Mayo and de facto general manager Eliot Wolf have made it clear every option remains on the table.
In the spirit of leaving no stone unturned, what could a draft look like if the Patriots aren’t sold on any of the top quarterbacks? Let’s take a look in a special Patriots Mock Draft 2.5. We also took a look at what a Patriots trade down could mean for the first round as a whole, which you can find in NFL Mock Draft 2.0 here.
TRADE!
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf during the NFL Scouting Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Patriots get:
— 6th overall pick (1st round)
— 47th overall pick (2nd round)
— 2025 1st-round pickGiants get:
— 3rd overall pick (1st round)
— 180th overall pick (6th round)The big question when assuming a trade down is where do the Patriots go? There appears to be two leading options. Do they hop back from three to six to stay in the range of the true elite players in this draft? Or do they make the jump all the way back to 11, perhaps missing out on the top offensive players in this draft but picking up a haul?
For this mock draft, we’re going with the former option. While Minnesota’s offer would likely be enticing, the Patriots are desperately lacking top-end talent. In the end they can’t pass on the opportunity to add such a player, even at a position other than quarterback.
Plus, this is still a solid return. This trade is loosely based on the one the Colts and Jets made in 2018. That was also a quarterback-centered trade – the Jets moved up from six to three to take Sam Darnold. The Colts ended up taking guard Quenton Nelson at six.
Round 1, Pick 6 (from NYG): WR Malik Nabers, LSU
TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA – NOVEMBER 04: Malik Nabers #8 of the LSU Tigers pulls in this touchdown reception against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 04, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
If you checked out our NFL first round mock draft, you know that four quarterbacks are already off the board by now. It’s entirely too early for Bo Nix, and the Patriots have, to this point, shown zero interest in Michael Penix.
Instead of a quarterback, the Patriots turn their attention to a dynamic, explosive playmaker. They’ve shown more interest in Nabers than any non-quarterback at the top of this year’s board, meeting with him at the LSU pro day.
Earlier this offseason, Wolf talked about “weaponizing” the Patriots’ offense, and Nabers might very well be the biggest non-QB ‘weapon’ in this entire draft. While he’s not as polished of a route runner as Marvin Harrison Jr., he’s an elite-tier athlete and a big-play touchdown threat on any given play, who can take the ball to the house on any route from any alignment. NFL.com called him the next big thing coming out of LSU’s receiver room,” with “some flashes of both” Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson in his game.
TRADE!
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf during the NFL Scouting Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Patriots get:
— 30th overall pick (1st round)
— 165th overall pick (5th round)Ravens get:
— 34th overall pick (2nd round)
— 137th overall pick (5th round)
— 2025 4th-round pickWith the top six quarterbacks all now off the board (see how that played out in NFL Mock Draft 2.0 here), the Patriots get to work building up the rest of the roster to be as ready as possible for a future quarterback addition. After getting a wide receiver in the first round, that means adding a tackle, so they jump a couple of tackle-needy teams with this deal.
Round 1, Pick 30 (from BAL):
OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
Oct 28, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Tyler Guyton (60) at the line of scrimmage against the Kansas Jayhawks during the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
After moving back up the Patriots take Guyton, out of the tackle factory that is The University of Oklahoma. Not only is Guyton a good player (he is), but he’s the kind of tackle that’s perfect for a retooling offense like the Patriots.
The first thing about Guyton that stands out is his size. At 6-foot-8, 322 pounds with 34 1/8-inch arms he comes into the NFL ready from a physical standpoint. On top of his size he also has experience playing both left and right tackle, and has the athleticism to suggest that versatility will carry over to the pros.
Guyton’s biggest flaw right now is his hands. If he can get his upper-body technique cleaned up he has all the other tools to be a plus starter in the NFL. The Patriots will have time to develop him, and will continue to have the flexibility to figure out the rest of their line knowing they can put him at either tackle spot.
Round 2, Pick 47 (from NYG):
S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
Aug 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers defensive back Tyler Nubin (27) celebrates a stop against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the fourth quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
With two of their biggest needs on offense addressed and no quarterbacks worth taking at this spot, the Patriots instead turn their attention to a need on defense. Specifically, they target a player who could take over the center field safety role that has been handled by committee since Devin McCourty’s retirement.
Nubin has tremendous eyes and instincts playing on the back end of a defense. His ability to read the quarterback and get in the right place at the right time is rare for a player coming out of college. Playing primarily on the back end as a starter for the last four years at Minnesota he had great on-ball production, including five interceptions and four pass breakups in 12 games last year.
Putting Nubin in the lineup would allow the Patriots to exclusively play their box safeties up front, maximizing their impact. That’s something that should be especially important after the team invested $58 million in Kyle Dugger over the weekend. Picking a safety this high after paying Dugger may seem counter-intuitive initially, but Nubin’s presence would free Dugger and Jabrill Peppers to play where they can be at their best.
TRADE!
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf during the NFL Scouting Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Patriots get:
— 76th overall pick (3rd round)
— 147th overall pick (5th round)Broncos get:
— 68th overall pick (3rd round)
The Patriots move down one more time, in order to add extra draft capital. Given how many open roster spots the team currently has, the plan seems to be to have a bigger rookie class. This is nearly an even swap on the Belichick trade chart, the Broncos overpay to move up is the equivalent of a late seventh-round pick.
Round 3, Pick 76 (from DEN):
QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Oct 21, 2023; Columbia, Missouri, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler (7) during the first half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots don’t leave the top 100 without any quarterback. They grab the one true Day 2 option in Rattler.
In drafting Rattler, the Patriots will try to tap into the potential he seemed to have when he was the top quarterback quarterback in his class coming out of high-school – a five-star prospect ranked top 10 nationally. Rattler initially attended Oklahoma and was supposed to be Lincoln Riley’s next great success story at quarterback after the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.
After a promising freshman year Rattler was the Heisman favorite as a sophomore, but lost his starting job midway through the season to Caleb Williams. Williams picked up what was supposed to be Rattler’s career path from there. Rattler himself transferred to South Carolina, where he led the Gamecocks to a 13-12 record in two seasons, never throwing for more than 19 touchdowns.
Now entering his age 24 season, it’s fair to question how much of that potential Rattler has left. He shows flashes of big-play ability – but it’s just that, flashes. A big-play hunter through and through, the variance in his game won’t stick at the NFL level. His path to sticking around would be to model his game after a guy like Gardner Minshew.
In all, Rattler is not a bad lottery ticket at this point in the draft, but he’s not a guaranteed long-term answer either. As a rookie he may be able to start some games, but he wouldn’t preclude the Patriots from taking a big swing on a quarterback in 2025. This is taking a quarterback for the sake of taking a quarterback. Never a great idea, but given we’re doing this draft under the pretense of the Patriots not liking any of the top six passers, it’s better to do it at the 76th overall pick than the sixth.
Round 4, Pick 103:
CB Cam Hart, Notre Dame
SOUTH BEND, INDIANA – OCTOBER 15: Cam Hart #5 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish looks on against the Stanford Cardinal during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium on October 15, 2022 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Back to defense to start Day 3. The Patriots address their other big need in the secondary – adding another boundary cornerback to play opposite Christian Gonzalez.
Heading into 2024, it’s unclear who will get that role. Will Jonathan Jones stay on the outside, or will he move back into the slot with the departure of Myles Bryant? Even if Jones does stay on the outside, the Patriots tend to use a rotation of three boundary cornerbacks, and right now the third spot is wide open.
Hart looks like a great candidate to fill that role. Part of what’s exciting about the 6-foot-3, 202-pound cornerback is that he seems to play his best against top opponents. He held his own against Marvin Harrison Jr. earlier this year, and then was one of the stars of the Senior Bowl.
In terms of his skillset, Hart plays to his size. Among a Patriots’ secondary that’s relatively on the smaller side, he could be a very helpful matchup player, then potentially develop into a fulltime starter down the road.
Round 5, Pick 147 (from DEN):
OT Walter Rouse, Oklahoma
PROVO, UT – NOVEMBER 18: Walter Rouse #75 of the Oklahoma Sooners blocks Isaiah Bagnah #13 of the Brigham Young Cougars during the first half of their game at LaVell Edwards Stadium on November 18, 2023 in Provo, Utah. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
The way Oklahoma churns out tackles, why not take two? That wasn’t exactly the plan coming in, but it’s where the Patriots are at with pick 147.
Rouse comes into the NFL with a ton of experience. He played exactly 3,400 snaps at left tackle over the last five years – all as a starter. His first four seasons were at Stanford, and then after transferring last season he had a career-year for the Sooners allowing just six pressures and no sacks on 480 pass blocking snaps.
Like Guyton, Rouse projects as a swing tackle at 6-foot-6, 313 pounds with a strong understanding of how rushers are trying to beat him. He’ll need to get into the weight room as a rookie but he showed great technical growth last year and could develop into a reliable third tackle and spot starter.
Round 5, Pick 165 (from BAL):
RB Dillon Johnson, Washington
CORVALLIS, OREGON – NOVEMBER 18: Running back Dillon Johnson #7 of the Washington Huskies runs with the ball against the Oregon State Beavers sat Reser Stadium on November 18, 2023 in Corvallis, Oregon. (Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)
With their second fifth-round pick the Patriots add to their backfield. Johnson is a great fit for the Patriots’ current backfield, led by Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Like those two, he’s a bigger back (6-foot, 217 pounds) who runs hard and is an incredibly tough tackle. Johnson was the ‘closer’ for the Huskies this year, grinding out carries and delivering body blows against defenses early, then taking advantage of the worn down front for bigger runs late in the game.
At the same time, like Stevenson and Gibson, Johnson shiftier than most backs his size. He’s also a very capable pass-catcher, hauling in 173 receptions in 49 career games. As a receiver he’s not exactly a ‘James White type’ who will win as a route runner, but he’s very comfortable in the typical running back route tree, able to catch the ball in space in the backfield and compete from there, or win on option and wheel routes.
Johnson may not have a major role in 2024 pending injuries, but the Patriots do need a third back. Plus, with Stevenson in a contract year he’d give them a player with some upside who could step into a top two back role if Stevenson leaves.
Round 6, Pick 193 (from JAX):
EDGE Brennan Jackson, Washington State
Nov 11, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; Washington State Cougars defensive end Brennan Jackson (80) pursues California Golden Bears quarterback Fernando Mendoza (right) during the first quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Over to the other half of the Apple Cup rivalry. The Patriots use their sixth-round pick on Jackson, a high-energy, physical edge defender.
Jackson has been a consistent pass-rushing presence for the Cougars over the past three years, with 31 tackles for a loss and 19 sacks in 38 games. He also has active hands a s a rusher, with eight pass breakups.
In the NFL Jackson may never be more than a situational pass rusher, and he’ll need to develop a more nuanced rush plan beyond playing with a high motor, but there’s enough there to take him as a flier late on Day 3.
This is the pick the Patriots got when trading away Mac Jones.
Round 7, Pick 231:
TE Trey Knox, South Carolina
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – SEPTEMBER 02: Trey Knox #1 of the South Carolina Gamecocks reacts after running for a first down against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first half of the game at Bank of America Stadium on September 02, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Wrapping the draft up by addressing the developmental tight end need. At 6-foot-3, 240 pounds Knox is a converted wide receiver who is a plus route-runner for the position. While he’s not exactly an extra tackle, he’s come a long way as a blocker in a short time since making the position change. What pushes Knox down the board is the lack of outright speed teams want to see from pass catchers, but he’s an interesting developmental option as a backup tight end, with some special teams potential as well.
