L-R: USC quarterback Caleb Williams and Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr., two of the top prospects projected to be in the 2024 NFL Draft. (USA Today)
An important NFL Draft deadline is quietly yet quickly approaching. For underclassmen heading to the draft the deadline to officially declare and file paperwork with the league in Jan. 15 – less than a week away.
For any players who still haven’t declared, they’re certainly cutting it close. The league actually sets a ‘soft’ deadline that passed on Jan. 5, but still gives players another 10 days beyond that. Players then have until Feb. 2 to withdraw if they change their minds.
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This year, as had been the trend the last few years, there’s been a dip in underclassmen declaring. 34 players are currently listed on the league’s underclassmen draft tracker. For comparison, that’s down from 140 juniors declaring in 2019.
There are two main reasons more underclassmen are staying in school – NIL money and the transfer portal. Players no longer have to leave college to get paid (some may make more money by staying), and even if they can’t get on the field in their current situation they can find another program where they can.
To this point, over the past few years, that change has mostly impacted players lower in the draft. This year though as things come down to the wire, there’s a chance that changes.
Most of the top underclassmen for this year declared weeks ago. We covered a few when they did, including UNC quarterback Drake Maye, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt, and Penn State tackle Olu Fashanu.
Missing from that list? The two players currently at the top of most experts’ big boards – USC quarterback Caleb Williams and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 26: Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans looks to pass the ball during the third quarter against the San Jose State Spartans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on August 26, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Again, both players have a week left to make their move, but their situations bear watching. There have been rumblings around both that could hint at a return to school.
Back in September, Williams’ dad hinted at his son returning to school if he didn’t like his draft projection. “The funky thing about the NFL draft process is, he’d almost be better off not being drafted than being drafted first. The system is completely backwards,” Carl Williams told GQ. “The way the system is constructed, you go to the worst possible situation. The worst possible team, the worst organization in the league — because of their desire for parity — gets the first pick. So it’s the gift and the curse.”
“If there’s not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school,” the elder Williams added.
As for Caleb Williams himself, he told The LA Times back in late November he’s “a game-time decision” when it comes to declaring for the draft. That comment came as Williams opted out of USC’s bowl game – a common practice for projected top draft picks.
Staying in school, Williams couldn’t make up for the projected $24 million signing bonus he’d get as the top overall pick in the draft. However the payday he’d be walking away from isn’t exactly small. NIL tracking site On3.com lists Williams’ NIL valuation at $2.7 million, which is the fifth-highest in all of college sports and the highest among draft-eligible players.
If Williams did go back to school he’d likely have another shot at being the first overall pick in 2025. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders currently projects as the top quarterback in that class (assuming Williams declares this year).
SOUTH BEND, INDIANA – SEPTEMBER 23: Marvin Harrison Jr. #18 of the Ohio State Buckeyes in action against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at Notre Dame Stadium on September 23, 2023 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
As for Harrison, he’s spoken more directly about potentially returning to school in 2024. When asked ahead of the Heisman ceremony in early December if he planned to declare for the draft, Harrison reflected on the Buckeyes’ shortcomings in the 2023 season.
“I’m still undecided,” Harrison told assembled reporters. “Coming into this year, I wanted to beat ‘The Team Up North’ [Michigan] and win a Big Ten championship. And obviously, I didn’t do that this year. I think there’s a great motive to come back if that’s what I decide to do. That’s something I definitely wanted to do in my Ohio State career, and not being done that yet definitely opens the door for me to come back. But, I’m undecided. I’m really just taking it day-by-day at this time.”
Like Williams, Harrison is taken care of well financially at Ohio State. His NIL valuation sits at $1.4 million, which ranks 11th in all of college sports, fifth among draft-eligible players, and is the most for a non-quarterback.
Again like Williams, Harrison would likely still be a top pick if he stayed in school another year. If anything his production might improve – Ohio State projects to have a better quarterback situation next fall with Kansas State transfer Will Howard replacing 2023 starter Kyle McCord (who transferred to Syracuse).
