Big-Picture Bruins: Who’s bringing the extra scoring pop?
The Boston Bruins need Jeremy Swayman. Because they’re likely to play a lot of low-scoring games.
This version of the Bruins, not just the 2024-25 team but for the next several seasons, is built from the net out. They have a big, versatile defensive corps that can support any starting goaltender, but elevate to one of the hardest teams in the league to score on when you put a higher-end talent like Swayman between the pipes.
The real reason the B’s needed the upper-tier guy in goal, however, is because they may once again have trouble putting the puck in the net at the other end of the ice. The Bruins scored 267 goals in the 2023-24 season, 12th in the NHL. They ranked 15th in power play goals (54) and 14th in power play percentage (22.2%). They were quite firmly a middle-of-the-pack offense, and their off-season improvements didn’t necessarily pull them into the upper echelon of the league.
They’re still a talented and versatile team, and by virtue of their defense and goaltending, they should once again be a top Eastern Conference contender and threaten for the Atlantic Division title. But if and when they come up short in the summer, it’s likely we’re again pointing to a lack of offensive firepower.
There’s hope for improvement in the pure goal-scoring department, in the form of their top off-season addition, new No. 1 center Elias Lindholm. In an ideal world, Lindholm would be your do-it-all No. 2 pivot, but in Boston, he’s the top dog. Playing between Pavel Zacha and David Pastrnak, Lindholm should approach the highest levels of offensive production he’s had in his career.
Lindholm’s career-best goal output was 42 in the 2021-22 season for the Calgary Flames, but with one of the league’s elite scorers to his right, a more reasonable projection for Lindholm would be the 27 goals and 51 assists he put up in 2018-19. Assuming a good bill of health and something close to a full season, Lindholm pretty much needs to return to the 60-point mark, which he accomplished as recently as two years ago with the Flames. He should also provide a boost as the team’s new primary “bumper” on the power play.
It’s beyond that promising first line where the Bruins have to figure out how to get increased production. The No. 2 right wing has been the spot to watch all off-season, and through training camp. That was ideally where 2021 first-round pick Fabian Lysell would seize the opportunity and earn a role playing next to Brad Marchand and Charlie Coyle.
Instead, the B’s are expected to start the season with Morgan Geekie playing on the right side of the No. 2 line. Geekie, who is in year 2 of a two-year contract with the Bruins, is a good forechecker who isn’t afraid to battle in high-traffic areas. Dropped into the most favorable situation of his young career, he posted new highs of 17 goals and 39 points in 76 games.
But in the big picture, Geekie is best suited as a third-line center. And while he complements Marchand and Coyle well and should be tough for opposing defenses to contain physically, there’s too low of an offensive ceiling with him as a top-6 wing.
Now, for the nerd stats. Among all forwards with at least 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 time, here’s where Geekie ranked in the 2023-24 regular season in some key advanced metrics when he was on the ice:
— 2.67 expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60), tied for 85th in the NHL
— 2.63 goals/60, T-96th
— 55.16 shot attempts/60, 123rd
— 46.64 shot attempt percentage, 126th
Those rates don’t scream “top-6 forward.” However, to be fair to Geekie, he does have an ability to find inside ice and generate quality scoring chances for his line, as evidenced by his 12.67 on-ice high-danger chances per 60 minutes, which ranked 45th in the league last season.
Comparing these numbers to those of Lysell in the 2024-25 preseason is most certainly not apples-to-apples, but it’s the best we have to go by between these two players. Here’s where Lysell performed in the same metrics over the past month for the Bruins, among forwards with at least 40 minutes of 5-on-5 time:
— 2.76 xGF/60, 67th in NHL
— 2.43 GF/60, 133rd
— 52.14 CF/60, 144th
— 51.19 CF%, 105th
So, the expected scoring and possession metrics are up a tick for Lysell. There’s a clear disparity, though, in the high-danger chances department, where Lysell ranked 183rd with 7.28 per 60 minutes. That is a reflection of Lysell’s inconsistency getting to those areas and relative unwillingness to engage in the physical aspects of the game.
Those details and inconsistencies are holding Lysell back from the NHL. It was a key topic of discussion between myself and Ty Anderson on the latest episode of the Sports Hub Underground podcast, which you can watch in the above video (subscribe here for the Sports Hub Bruins channel). But to start, the B’s are going to see how it goes with Geekie in a top-6 role.
There’s a domino effect to that decision. It shifts Trent Frederic back to center on the third line, and moves another key off-season addition, left wing Max Jones, up to that group. Cole Koepke slides into the NHL lineup as a fourth-line wing with another new face, Mark Kastelic, and second-year forward Johnny Beecher. Fellow sophomore Matthew Poitras is a wild card entering the season, as he deals with an undisclosed injury, but could provide an offensive spark as a middle-six forward in his second NHL season.
If the Bruins get well into the regular season, and they’re not earning as many points in the standings as they’d like, and they’re once again a mediocre, sometimes-anemic offensive squad, they have to consider bring Lysell up, or bringing in someone to inject the lineup with skill, a better chance to put the puck across the goal line, even if it does come with the ups and downs of a young forward in his first NHL action.
For now, the B’s will go into the season with an improved team in more specific areas that they struggled with in 2023-24. They will win more faceoffs. They’ll be stronger and more physical in the defensive end. They will be hard on pucks on the forecheck and tougher for opposing defensemen to push around. Additions like Elias Lindholm, defenseman Nikita Zadorov, and Jones/Kastelic will help in those departments.
MORE: Bruins solidify goalie group after waiver moves
But these guys are safer bets to help in the 200-foot game, and the more hard-nosed areas of the ice. When it comes to pure speed, skill, and finishing ability, the Bruins’ best hope is in the young forwards coming up through the system, especially those that are knocking on the door.
And if the Bruins once again fall short of expectations, if they can’t go on a deeper playoff run than they’ve had over the past few seasons, once again, it’ll be because they didn’t light enough lamps.
Matt Dolloff is a writer and digital content producer for 98.5 The Sports Hub. Read all of his articles here.
Bruins announce Opening Night roster
May 8, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak (88) looks on against the Florida Panthers during the third period in Game 2 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena. (Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports)
Beginning at the top of their roster, the Bruins are going to roll with a first line that slots Lindholm between Pavel Zacha on the left wing and David Pastrnak at right wing. If Lindholm can help stabilize the center position and give that line yet another threat, Pastrnak could and should get back in the Hart Trophy conversation as a legitimate contender to those outside of Boston. And that’s a scary thought considering that he was arguably more important to the Bruins’ success last year than he was in 2022-23 when he was an actual finalist for the honor awarded to the player judged to be the most valuable player to their team.
You can expect that line to get a ton of offensive-zone minutes out of the gate.
And just below that top line, the Bruins will roll with a second line that slots Morgan Geekie to the right of Brad Marchand and Charlie Coyle in what projects to be a do-it-all line for Jim Montgomery’s squad.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – APRIL 11: Trent Frederic #11 of the Boston Bruins looks on during the third period against the Washington Capitals at TD Garden on April 11, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Down the lineup, the Bruins are projected to open up their season with a third line that features Max Jones at left wing, Justin Brazeau at right wing, and Trent Frederic at center. Their fourth line, meanwhile, will feature Johnny Beecher, Mark Kastelic, and Cole Koepke to begin the season.
Koepke is perhaps the lone surprise of this group based on offseason projections, but Koepke certainly earned the gig out of camp, as he was a constant factor whenever deployed during the preseason.
The group will also have Riley Tufte hanging around as the proverbial 13th forward.
Apr 4, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Hampus Lindholm (27) is congratulated by defenseman Charlie McAvoy (73) center Charlie Coyle (13) and left wing Brad Marchand (63) after his empty net goal. (James Guillory/USA TODAY Sports)
On the backend, which is the absolute and undeniable strength of this club, the Bruins are going for a supercharged top pairing that’ll reunite Hampus Lindholm with Charlie McAvoy.
Over the last three seasons, the Lindholm-McAvoy pairing has been one hell of a weapon for the Bruins, with the duo on the ice for a 39-20 scoring edge and a plus-125 shot differential at five-on-five play.
That’ll align Mason Lohrei and Brandon Carlo as Boston’s second pairing, while Nikita Zadorov will skate with Andrew Peeke to give the Black and Gold an absolutely punishing third-pairing look.
Parker Wotherspoon, meanwhile, will round out the group as their seventh blue liner.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – APRIL 06: Jeremy Swayman #1 of the Boston Bruins looks on during the second period against the Toronto Maple Leafs at TD Garden on April 06, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
In goal, the Bruins will indeed have the tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and Jeremy Swayman ready to go.
Korpisalo, who is coming off an absolutely miserable season in Ottawa, was named the Opening Night starter last week, but it’s worth wondering if that’s changed with Swayman signed and practicing with the club. Speaking with reporters on Monday, Montgomery acknowledged Swayman starting as a possibility for the club.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 30: Matthew Poitras #51 of the Boston Bruins looks on during the second period against the Florida Panthers at TD Garden on October 30, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
And when it comes to some ‘extras’ hanging around, it’s worth noting that the Bruins designated forward Matt Poitras, along with defensemen Ian Mitchell and Alec Regula, as ‘Injured Non-Roster’ players.
Poitras and Mitchell did practice with the club on Monday, but it’s worth noting that Poitras was skating in a non-contact jersey (and remains ‘day-to-day’ according to the team) and that Mitchell may have suffered his injury during practice. Regula, meanwhile, has not practiced with the team at all this camp due to injury.
