Mazz: A quick primer on what to watch for as the Red Sox square off against the Rays

Author Tony Massarotti

October 7th, 2021 8:01 AM

The Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are hardly strangers, but we all know that we don’t watch baseball with the intensity we once did. As such, here are a few things to look for when the Red Sox open the American League Division Series in Florida tonight against a Tampa team that led the AL with precisely 100 wins:

• Tampa pitching generally shut down the Red Sox this year

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  While the season series was 11-8 in favor or Tampa, the Red Sox won the first four. The Rays claimed 11 of the last 15, holding the Red Sox to 69 runs, an average of 4.6 per contest. That included a 20-run outburst by Boston at Fenway Park on Aug. 11, which means the Red Sox scored an average of 3.5 runs in the other 14 games. Meanwhile, the Rays led the American League with a ridiculous 2.97 ERA at home. Translation: you’re probably not going to hit, especially at Tampa, where the Sox’ last two wins were by scores of 4-0 and 3-2. The Sox need to pitch very well, especially down there.

• On offense, Kyle Schwarber feels like a potential X-factor

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  Offensively, where the Sox particularly struggled in Tampa was from the left side of the plate, where Rafael Devers (.674 OPS) and Alex Verdugo (.615) were substandard. Since joining the Sox – a period that included those last two, low-scoring wins – Schwarber went 5-for-16 with three runs scored, a home run, two RBI and two walks on the road against Tampa. He and Devers may now be the two more important players in the Sox lineup, even with the Rays throwing lefty Shane McClanahan in the series opener.

• On the mound, against Tampa, the Sox had success with left-handed pitching

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  Offensively, the Rays are a remarkably consistent team in terms of overall performance: they had a .745 OPS at home and a .753 OPS on the road, though they pitched noticeably better at Tropicana Field (2.93 ERA, .619 OPS) than anywhere else (4.43 ERA, .739 OPS). Again, this puts pressure on Sox pitchers. At Tampa this year, Eduardo Rodriguez went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings and Chris Sale went 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in one start that covered six innings. As things stand, Rodriguez and Sale are set up to pitch Games 1, 2 and 5 (if necessary) – all in Tampa Bay. That doesn't feel like a coincidence.

You can hear Tony Massarotti weekdays from 2-6 p.m. EST on the Felger & Massarotti program. Follow him on Twitter @TonyMassarotti.

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Author Tony Massarotti

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2021 mlb playoffs,Boston Red Sox,MLB,Tampa Bay Rays,Tony Massarotti