Inability to create sustained drives
Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick rubs his head during the fourth quarter of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Earlier this week, we highlighted sustained drives as something the Patriots would need to do to have a chance to win this game. That didn’t come to fruition Thursday night.
The Patriots had nine drives in this game. Over the first five, only one saw them pick up first downs (they had three on the five-play drive that resulted in a Marcus Jones TD). That was followed by an eight-play drive in a two-minute drill situation at the end of the first half, and resulted in just 29 yards and a missed field goal.
Their only real sustained drive of the night was their final one, when they went 57 yards in 17 plays. That drive also ended in a field goal, and given the time and score that late in the fourth quarter, may have done more harm than good with how much time came off the clock (5:45).
A big part of what hurt the Patriots in this regard was their performance on first downs. They averaged 4.3 yards per play on first, but the average doesn’t tell the whole story. 10 of their 23 first down plays went for zero or negative yards, while five went for 10-plus. There was little consistency in this regard, and more often than not they found themselves behind the sticks.
For more on the offensive struggles, particularly as they related to the game plan and coaching, check out this post here.
Not enough tackles
Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; The New England Patriots line up against the Buffalo Bills in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Part of the reason the Patriots’ struggled so much offensively in this game was their tackle situation. Isaiah Wynn and Yodny Cajuste were both ruled out prior to the game, and Trent Brown was so sick he didn’t participate in warmups. Still, Brown played across from Conor McDermott, the only other active tackle on the roster.
The results were predictable. Mac Jones was regularly left needing to extend plays with his legs, and that pressure seemed to speed him up late in the game.
“I think Mac needs more time,” wide receiver Kendrick Bourne said after the game. “He’s obviously running around, so it’s hard to get the ball downfield when you can’t really have time to throw.”
After the game, Belichick was asked if he felt the tackle situation limited what the offense was comfortable calling. “We were definitely working round some things there. But, yeah, we just need to do a better job,” he said.
Offensive line depth, or lack thereof, isn’t an issue just limited to this game for the Patriots either. It’s something they’ve had to deal with, and likely will continue to have to deal with moving forward. That stands out after they let two starting-caliber guards go back in March – one in a trade (Shaq Mason) and one in free agency (Ted Karras) – then traded their third tackle (Justin Herron) just two weeks into the season.
The two-minute drill that wasn’t
Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) runs the ball against the Buffalo Bills in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
From big picture self-inflicted wounds, to the more immediate ones. There were a number of questionable sequences from the offense Thursday night, but none topped what happened at the end of the first half.
After starting slowly, the defense started to pick up the intensity late in the first half. That included a Josh Uche strip sack with about a minute and a half to go until halftime, setting the Patriots up with the ball just shy of the 50 with two timeouts in a 17-7 game. With a short field ahead of them, the Patriots’ offense had a great chance to cut the game to a single score margin and pick up momentum heading into the locker room.
That sounds great, but it’s not what happened. The drive started promising, with Rhamondre Stevenson gaining 14 yards on first down. That was followed by a nine-yard completion to Jakobi Meyers on the sideline, stopping the clock before a 2nd & 1 at the Bills’ 35.
However, that’s when the Patriots fell into a trap they’ve repeatedly caught themselves in this season. Instead of using the 2nd & 1 opportunity to take a shot down the field, they seemed fixated on picking up the one yard and the first down. With 50 seconds left on the clock, they ran Stevenson up the middle but failed to gain the yard, and after trying to go no-huddle were forced to take a timeout after 16 seconds had come off the block. On 3rd & 1 they went with a QB sneak, and although Jones picked up the first they had to take their final timeout. In total, the Patriots ran two plays, gained two yards, burned both their timeouts, and the clock ran from :50 to :32.
With that sequence, the Patriots were significantly limited in what they could do. The middle of the field was a no-go at that point, and a sack would have taken them out of scoring range. They ran a couple of short passing plays to the boundary, then kicked a 48-yard field goal that Nick Folk missed short. Despite the gift in field position and the chance to pick up momentum, the Patriots came away empty-handed.
“Kind of short on a third down, cost us another – we didn’t pick it up on third down, so we had to use a timeout there,” Belichick said when asked about the sequence after the game. “I mean, in the end we should have had a field goal at the end of the half and we ended up not getting it.”
Would better execution in that specific sequence have been the difference between the Patriots winning and losing? No, probably not. But those individual moments continue to pile up, and this was yet another example of something situationally the Patriots used to be very good at, but now feels more like a weak spot.
There were punts
Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass against the New England Patriots in the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
While the offense showed plenty to scrutinize in this game, the defense was more of a mixed bag. Let’s start with the positive.
After not forcing a punt in the last two meetings against the Bills, things started off looking familiar for the Patriots’ defense. They forced a field goal attempt on the first drive, but then allowed two touchdown drives in the second quarter.
Obviously not great, but after that the defense actually settled in. The Bills remaining drive results included three punts and the Uche forced fumble, and only one touchdown. While Buffalo may have taken their foot off the gas late in the game, there were some competitive drives late in the second quarter that saw the Patriots’ defense make plays.
If the Patriots want to make a late season run this year – or as long as their offense looks as anemic as it has – they’re going to need the defense to play at a high level. Thursday night’s performance wasn’t perfect, but that kind of effort will keep the Patriots in games if they can find a way to even just get back to level offensively.
Stopping the run on first down
Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) hands off the ball to running back Devin Singletary (26) against the New England Patriots in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
While the Patriots’ defense played significantly better than the last matchup against the Bills, they weren’t perfect. The Bills still did put up 24 points after all. So, what went wrong?
A major turning point in this game was how well the Bills ran the ball – especially on first downs. Of Buffalo’s 28 first downs in this game (excluding their end of the game kneel down), they ran the ball 15 times. On those 15 runs, they averaged 4.53 yards per carry. Those runs resulted in a number of second and manageable or even second and short situations for Buffalo, keeping them on schedule and allowing them to move the chains. When the Patriots were able to get the Bills into second or third and long situations they fared much better defensively, but those situations weren’t created as regularly as needed.
This contrasted starkly with what the Patriots’ first-down offense did on Thursday night. Of their 23 first down plays, 10 went for no yards or negative yards, leaving them behind schedule repeatedly. As a result, the Bills were a respectable 9-for-15 on third downs, while the Patriots were 3-for-12. As noted above, extending drives or failing to do so was a major separator in this game.
Missed opportunities
Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger (23) and cornerback Jack Jones (13) defend against Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
While the defense played good in this game, there were opportunities for them to play great. However those opportunities slipped through their fingers – mostly figuratively, but once literally.
The best way to beat Josh Allen is to capitalize on his mistakes. Not only does he lead the league in interceptions, but PFF’s turnover-worthy plays as well. Making him pay for those mistakes is how teams have kept games in reach against the Bills this year.
There was one such chance late in the first half, when the game was 17-7. Allen threw a ball into double coverage where both Kyle Dugger and Jack Jones had a shot at a pick six. They collided going for the ball though, and it ended up falling incomplete (ironically, in almost the exact same spot on the field where J.C. Jackson dropped what would have been a game-turning interception against the Bills at Gillette last year). While the Bills did end up punting on the drive, this took away a chance for a short field for the offense, if not a defensive score outright.
While that missed chance potentially took points off the board for the Patriots, another help Buffalo extend its lead. With the game at 10-7 late in the first quarter, the Patriots had the Bills in a 3rd & 9 from the Buffalo 35. Allen overthrew Gabe Davis on the boundary, but Jones dragged him down from behind while the ball was in the air. While the throw may or may not have been catchable, it was enough contact to draw a pass interference penalty, extending the drive. Five plays later, the Bills scored their second touchdown of the game.
These kinds of miscues – especially the penalties – have been a thorn in the Patriots’ collective side all season. While those sorts of plays do happen over the course of a game and a season, they continue to happen too frequently for the Patriots to overcome.
Buffalo’s third quarter march
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 01: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills drops back to pass against the New England Patriots in the second half at Gillette Stadium on December 01, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Mistakes aside, the real backbreaker for the Patriots came in the third quarter. Although the offense hadn’t shown much, the game was still in reach – especially after the Patriots forced a Bills punt on Buffalo’s first drive of the half.
The Bills’ second drive of that half was the one that really put the game to bed. They got the ball about halfway through the third quarter, then drained almost nine minutes off the clock with a 15-play, 94-yard touchdown march that carried over to the fourth quarter and put the Bills up 24-10. Suddenly, the Patriots went from being in a close divisional game with time to go, to needing to be next to perfect to create a fourth quarter comeback.
Those kinds of drives used to be Hallmarks of the Patriots offense. Now they’ve been on the wrong end of such drives two times in as many weeks (Minnesota had a 14-play, 65-yard drive that took 7:36 off the clock in the third and fourth quarters last week). Again the defense played well as a whole Thursday night, but this drive is a turning point they’d probably like another shot at.
