Clean up the mistakes
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 18: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots reacts after a penalty against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the game at Allegiant Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
This could be a game focus for just about any game the Patriots have played this year, but there’s no time like the present. If the Patriots want to pull off the upset they’re going to need to clean up the basic mistakes they’ve been making procedurally and operationally, especially on the offensive side of the football.
“I think the biggest thing is just cleaning up the details and the nitty-gritty,” quarterback Mac Jones said on Wednesday. “That’s what I always call them, the nitty-gritty goals of just trying to get everything to where we’re all operating on the same page. That can apply in football, that can apply in life, just cleaning up every little detail, so that when you get to game day, we have that stuff figured out. We have all that stuff planned out. We’ve done that at times, and we just want to improve that as an offense.”
Center and fellow captain David Andrews echoed those sentiments. “To me, it starts with the fundamentals, right? Because if your fundamentals aren’t good than nothing else is going to be good. So we start there, build from there.” he explained. “If there’s a bad play and you sit there and dwell on that bad play there’s probably going to be some more bad plays. Put the bad ones behind you, keep moving forward, and worry about the next one.”
Whether it’s getting plays called in, substitutions, lining up correctly, limiting penalties, etc., the Patriots will need to be better when it comes to the little things this week. Is it finally time for them to turn that page? We will see.
Pressure Joe Burrow
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – NOVEMBER 27: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals throws the ball during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 27, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Earlier this week, Patriots safety Devin McCourty called the Bengals passing attack is “across the board, is probably the best group [in the NFL],” in terms of the weapons at their disposals. There’s plenty of evidence to back up that claim, with the wide receiver trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd arguably being the best wide receiver trio in the league. Complementing them is tight end Hayden Hurst and running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, who both contribute in the passing game.
That’s a lot of players who can all make an impact with the ball in their hands. While strong coverage and tight coverage assignments will help with slowing them down, the best thing the Patriots can do it make it tough on the guy getting them the football – quarterback Joe Burrow.
Burrow hasn’t been as bad under pressure as some of the other quarterbacks the Patriots have faced, but there is a noticeable drop off when rushers come after him. His passer rating drops from 105.5 in a clean pocket to 89.7.
On top of just general pressure though, one of Burrow’s biggest issues this year has been when there are hands in his face in front of him. He’s had 19 passes batted at the line this year, tied for the most in the league (although Justin Herbert, who he is tied with, has attempted 100 more passes). His batted pass percentage is currently 5.1 percent, which would be the second-highest in the league since 2019.
A number of those deflections have turned into interceptions. The Patriots will need to create turnovers to stay in this game, so keeping hands in the passing lanes will be big.
This will also be Burrow’s first game against Bill Belichick, which could be a factor. Expect Belichick to spin the dial on the back end and have some new looks for Burrow, which could lead to the Cincy quarterback holding the ball a bit longer than normal.
The size mismatch
CINCINNATI, OHIO – OCTOBER 23: Tyler Boyd #83 and Tee Higgins #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrate after Ja’Marr Chase #1 made a catch for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half at Paycor Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Pressure will be important, but coverage matters too. The Patriots’ gauntlet of facing the NFL’s top tier of wide receivers this week, as they have to handle Ja’Marr Chase.
Despite missing four games in the middle of the season due to a hip injury, Chase has still been one of the top pass catchers in the league this year. In 10 games, he’s caught 71 passes for 881 yards and eight touchdowns.
Plus, unlike with Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins the last two weeks, the Bengals have a healthy group of legitimate playmakers opposite Chase, again highlighted by Higgins and Boyd. One thing they all have in common? Size. Higgins is listed at 6-foot-4, Boyd at 6-foot-2, and Chase at 6-foot, although he plays much bigger than that.
With Jalen Mills once again ruled out and Jack Jones questionable, the Patriots could once again be down to cornerbacks all 5-foot-10 and under against this group. That makes the coverage assignments tricky. Although Jonathan Jones (who is also questionable after being added to the injury report this week) has been the No. 1 so far this year, rookie Marcus Jones has played competitively against both Adams and Hopkins. He could get some looks across the line of scrimmage from Chase.
If that’s the case, the Patriots could put Jonathan Jones on Higgins, then shade help over Chase’s way. That’s a tactic they’ve used before – have the No. 1 corner erase the No. 2 receiver, then swarm the No. 1 receiver with multiple bodies in coverage.
It sounds good on paper, but will it work in reality? Or will the Bengals exploit the size mismatches better and more often than the Ravens did? We’ll see on Saturday.
Ball security
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 18: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots hands the ball to Rhamondre Stevenson #38 during the third quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
This is pretty much a sub-point of the first point on this list, but the Patriots have to take care of the football on offense. Last week, the Bengals were able to erase a 17-0 deficit by forcing four Buccaneers turnovers. That included intercepting Tom Brady twice, and strip-sacking him multiple times (some of which were recovered by the Bucs, but the chase for turnovers was there).
Among the issues Mac Jones has had the last few months, turnovers haven’t been one. Since Week 9, he’s thrown just one interceptions (when his arm was hit due by a pass rusher while throwing) and hasn’t lost any of the three fumbles he’s had.
It goes beyond Jones as well. As mentioned above, Cincinnati’s pass rush led to a number of the turnovers last week. That brings the focus to the Patriots’ offensive line. They played better last week, possibly helped the continuity factor of having played the same starting five for a second week in a row. They’ll need a similar performance this week.
Turnover issues popping back up wouldn’t be ideal at any time, but the Bengals are a team that capitalizes on turnovers better than most.
