Given the current state of things, Red Sox pitching is the now the priority. Time to reset the expectations.
On the chance you haven’t been paying as much attention – and how could during the most hectic month on the Boston sports calendar – the already-thin Red Sox had been further gutted in the last week or so, which has left the lineup looking thinner than Kristaps Porzingis. During the weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Red Sox lost first baseman Triston Casas to a broken rib that will keep him out for an extended time. Added to the absences of Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill (who returned last night) and Trevor Story (out for the year), the Red Sox played without their Nos. 2, 3, 4 and 5 hitters during the majority of a weekend sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Simply put, their Tin-Man lineup has been gutted. The heart of the order was missing.
Can it get better with the return of Devers, who could join O’Neill and be back as soon as tonight? Sure. But something also suggests that Devers might be nagged all season while O’Neill has a history of injury. And if the Red Sox are to somehow stay afloat, they’re going to have to do it with a starting rotation that has thus far been the surprising strength of the team.
And even if they don’t stay above water, the starting pitching will remain the most important development of this 2024 season.
Here’s the point: we’re all frustrated with Red Sox ownership and baseball operations as they continue to throttle back over a period of years. Should you expect more? Hell yes. Should you be angry? Definitely. But at some point, to borrow a phrase, it is what it is. The Red Sox are waiting for the proverbial cavalry – we hope – in Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony. In theory, we could get a glimpse of all three this season, and all three could factor into 2025 in some capacity. Is that what you want to hear on April 24? Nope. But you can either keep beating your head against the wall or accept the reality of it all.
Which brings us back to the starting pitching.
For all the hyping of the Red Sox farm system, pitching remains in thin supply. The Red Sox are so desperate for young starters, in particular, that they went back to the same drawing board with the same group of starters (Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Tanner Houck) under a new director of baseball operations in Craig Breslow. Lo and behold, the group is now thriving – albeit over a short sample – but that makes the Chaim Bloom Era look like an even bigger failure.
Despite last night’s 4-1 defeat – and you had better get used to the low-scoring losses – Red Sox starters remained first among all major league rotations in ERA (1.80) as April nears its end, which may or may not be a fluke. Only the Philadelphia Phillies (0.97) have a lower WHIP than the Sox (1.01) and only the Phillies (.189) have allowed a lower batting average than the Sox’ .203. Red Sox starters have allowed just eight home runs, tied for fewest in the game.
If the Sox can keep it up – and that’s a very big IF – there will be significant reason for hope as the season progresses and offseason approaches. Starting pitching, after all, remains the biggest obstacle between the Red Sox and contention again, and, perhaps, the difference between spending and not spending. If multiple starters from the group of Bello, Whitlock, Houck and Crawford emerge, the Red Sox could very well be back in business for the longer term.
Does that make 2024 even more frustrating and maddening? Again, yes.
But it also gives the season great value for the four starters highlighted below.
Tanner Houck
CLEVELAND, OH – APRIL 23: Tanner Houck #89 of the Boston Red Sox pitches against the Cleveland Guardians during the first inning at Progressive Field on April 23, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images)
While Kutter Crawford currently leads the American League in ERA – not a misprint – Houck may be the biggest development on the staff thus far. A former first-round pick with the build (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) to be a horse, Houck has average nearly 6.2 innings per start, which is a big number in this day and age. Can he keep it up? Time will tell. But he’s throwing strikes at a career-best rate and has the kind of movement on his pitches that makes him difficult to hit. His delivery looks much cleaner and tighter than years past. He has five walsk in five stars. Good stuff.
Brayan Bello
PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 19: Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates during inter-league play at PNC Park on April 19, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Though still a little erratic, Bello’s last two starts have been his best of the season, producing 15 strikeouts against just four walks and seven hits and 11.1 innings. The Red Sox have already committed to him in the form of a six-year, $55 million contract because he has higher upside than perhaps anyone else on the staff. How good can he be? That depends on the finer details, which include tightening up his delivery and showing a more consistent ability to command and spot the ball. (He has been better at this in his last two outings.) For now, let’s leave it at this: Bello can be a front-end starter. How high that is depends on where he goes from here. But for the first time in a while, it feels like he’s improving again.
Kutter Crawford
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – APRIL 20: Kutter Crawford #50 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on April 20, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Since the Red Sox committed to him as a full-time starter at the beginning of June last year, Crawford has posted a 3.43 ERA in 26 starts with 9.64 strikeouts and 2.93 walks per nine innings. Will that get him into the Hall of Fame? No. But it will make him a potential anchor to a big league rotation. Again, this year, Crawford leads the American League in ERA thus far. And while the walks are up, so too are the strikeouts. (If the former can back to last year’s level without sacrificing the strikeouts, that would be ideal.) He hasn’t allowed a home run this season. (Jinx.) With Crawford right now, there’s a longer sustained record of success than with anyone else on the staff.
Garrett Whitlock
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – APRIL 11: Garrett Whitlock #22 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park on April 11, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
Let’s make something clear here: the Red Sox don’t need all four of these guys to pan out. If the first three all succeed, the Red Sox could easily put Whitlock back in the bullpen, where he probably belongs. (He is currently on the disabled list again with an oblique injury.) Even if Whitlock stays healthy as a starter, he hasn’t been remotely as pitch efficient as he has been as reliever, which is concerning. His ERA (1.96) is good, but walks are up and strikeouts are down, which is consistent what he has previously been as a starter. In a best-case scenario, he ends up back in the bullpen to fortify an area that use a good, reliable young arm.
