With the Patriots’ season coming to an end, we can now take a big-picture look at what the team was in 2022. A year after returning to the playoffs for the first time in the post-Brady era, the Patriots finished 8-9, and were eliminated from postseason contention on the final day of the season.
“Our record is right around .500, which is what it’s been kind of all year,” Bill Belichick said Monday morning. “With that, some good things and some not so good things, so nobody’s satisfied with that. That’s not our goal. We need to try to improve on that. Need to improve on it.”
Objectively, that improvement mainly needs to come on offense. The Patriots went from being the sixth-ranked offense in 2021 (27.2 points per game) to 17th in 2022 (21.4 points per game). That 2022 number is also buoyed by the Patriots’ NFL-best eight non-offensive touchdowns. Offensively, they scored 31 total touchdowns in 17 games or 1.8 a game.
What happened that led to this regression? We’ll take a look through postseason offensive positional grades (defensive grades coming tomorrow).
A couple of notes on these grades. First, we’re grading on a curve here. The evaluation factors in what the expectations were for each group coming into the season. Also, with football being a ‘what have you done for me lately’ game, there is a recency bias in effect. Finally, there’s no grade for the coaching staff. Rather, we’ll get into the impact of coaching on each position individually.
Ok, let’s get to the grades…
Quarterbacks: C
Oct 24, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) and quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) run onto the field before a game against the Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s get right into the coaching. The offensive setup this year did Mac Jones very few favors – and it showed. In 14 games this year Jones completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,997 yards, with 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That was a noticeable step back from last season statistically.
What happened? First off, there was little consistency in the offense as a whole. From training camp, to the early portion of the season, to Jones returning from injury, to the final few weeks of the season, the Patriots’ offensive philosophy and even scheme seemed to change. That’s a lot to process.
Within that, the Patriots also took elements out of the offense that seemed to favor Jones last year. His play-action percentage (play action pass attempts compared to total pass attempts) dropped from 20 to 15. The RPO rate in the offense was cut in half when Jones was on the field from six percent to three percent.
This isn’t all to totally exonerate Jones. Late in the season, his frustrations appeared to start to impact his play. His accuracy and decision making did dip off in some bigger moments, something he’ll certainly need to work on in 2023.
Overall, this year was somewhat of a wash for Jones. He certainly didn’t emphatically prove he is definitely the guy for the Patriots moving forwards, but the circumstances that existed around the offense didn’t allow enough room to fully evaluate that he isn’t either.
First-round pick quarterbacks often get three years to prove they belong, which is in part dictated to the fifth-year option needing to be decided on prior to the fourth year of the contract. Outside of truly disastrous situations (see Jets, New York), that’s generally the timeline and Jones hasn’t given the Patriots any reason to break from it, although it will be make-or-break for him in 2023.
As for the other quarterbacks, Bailey Zappe had some impressive moments early in the season when Jones was hurt. While they came against two of the league’s lowest-ranked defenses, he showed he belongs in the NFL and can at the very least be a capable backup moving forwards.
Midseason grade: C-
Running backs: A-
Patriots running back #38 Rhamondre Stevenson runs for a big gain after getting a block from #71 Mike Onwenu in the 4th. (Bob Breidenbach/USA TODAY NETWORK)
In his second NFL season, Rhamondre Stevenson had one of the best single seasons for a Patriots running back in the Bill Belichick era. He was the focal point of the offense for most of the season, putting up some unprecedented numbers.
This season, Stevenson was on the field for 66.4 percent of the Patriots’ total offensive snaps. That’s the most by a running back by a wide margin going back to 2012, when Pro Football Reference tracking data begins. This was a major break from the Patriots’ standard running back usage, as only two other backs have eclipsed a 50 percent usage rate in that window – Shane Vereen played 52.5 percent of the offensive snaps in 2014 and James White previously held the record with a 53.6 percent usage rate in 2018. Stevenson beat them both by more than 10 percentage points and 100 total snaps.
Overall, Stevenson was the fourth-most used running back in football this year. He trailed Saquon Barkley (75.4 percent), Josh Jacobs (64.5) and Dalvin Cook (72).
Not only was Stevenson on the field a lot, but the ball found him often. In addition to being the team’s leading rusher, he caught more passes (69) than any other player on the roster. His 279 touches were the sixth-most by a Patriots player in the Belichick era, and the second-most in the last 10 years behind LeGarrette Blount’s 306 touches in 2016. In terms of total yards, Stevenson finished fourth on the Belichick-era leaderboard with 1,461. He finished behind Corey Dillon (1,738 in 2004), Wes Welker (1,599, 2011), and Randy Moss (1,493, 2007).
While all of these numbers from Stevenson are wildly impressive, the workload clearly started to wear on him by the end of the year. Following his late-game fumble against the Bengals in Week 16, Stevenson admitted he was feeling “a little banged up,” although the evidence suggested he started feeling it a few weeks before.
That begs the question – if the Patriots had rotated the backs more early in the season, would Stevenson have been more explosive down the stretch? Damien Harris played well when on the field, rushing for 462 yards in 11 games, despite playing just 35 percent of the snaps in the games he was active for. Later in the season, the option to pool him was taken off the table as a nagging thigh injury caused him to miss the full month of December.
Both rookie backs, fourth-round pick Pierre Strong and sixth-round pick Kevin Harris, also looked good albeit in very limited chances. When Stevenson got hurt in Week 14 against the Cardinals the Patriots were forced to turn to the duo, who each offered some explosive plays. However, the coaching staff was tentative to look their way the rest of the year, again leaning on Stevenson and then increasing his role when Harris got hurt.
Midseason grade: B+
Wide receivers: C
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 24: Jakobi Meyers #16 of the New England Patriots celebrates with Andrew Stueber #64 of the New England Patriots after Meyers touchdown
during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette Stadium on December 24, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Nick Grace/Getty Images)It was an inconsistent year for Patriots wide receivers. Individually, most of the group struggled to make an impact from start to finish, and no clear patterns emerged within the group.
Jakobi Meyers was the exception to that roller coaster year. Despite missing three games, he still had the highest usage rate of any receiver on the team. He was on the field for 65.6 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, even factoring in the games he missed. Again, despite the time missed he led all receivers and was second only to Stevenson on the team with 67 catches. His 804 receiving yards and six touchdowns were team highs. However, he was a key part of the team’s lowest moment this season, throwing the lateral that likely cost them the game in Las Vegas.
After Meyers, the production dropped off steeply. Kendrick Bourne played the fewest snaps of any of the five main wide receivers on the team (41.9 percent usage rate), but still proved to be the most explosive. Despite his low usage rate, he still caught the second-most passes with 35 receptions in 16 games. His 12.4 yards per reception were the second-most of any qualified receiver on the team.
Bourne’s lack of usage was a storyline throughout the season, and one that will likely carry over into text year. While there were technical lapses – his 8.3 percent drop rate was the highest among the wideouts on the team – he was hardly alone in those mistakes. Ultimately the offense looked at its best when he was involved, and Jones was clearly comfortable throwing him the ball. It’s tough to not wonder what the offense would have looked like had he been more involved.
It was another tough year for Nelson Agholor, who caught less passes for fewer yards as the 2021 free agent signing saw his role slashed from last year. His usage rate dropped from 73 percent to 49 percent, despite the fact he played one more game in 2022. That cut came progressively. Agholor was actually the Patriots’ most productive receiver for the first month of the season, but hands issues – both fumbles and drops – soon became an issue. He finished with 31 catches for 362 yards and two touchdowns.
First-year Patriot DeVante Parker may have been the Patriots’ second-most consistent wideout when on the field. He played the second-most snaps despite missing four games – no other receiver missed more time than he did. When on the field though he looked like the deep-threat and 50/50 expert he appeared to be in Miami. He caught 31 passes but for 539 yards and three touchdowns. His 17.4 yards per catch ranked second in the NFL, behind only Jaylen Waddle. Parker’s building chemistry with Jones is something to watch into 2023, as he proved he should still have a role in the Patriots’ offense moving forwards – although durability remains a question.
Then there’s the rookie Tyquan Thornton. Thornton began the season on IR, and returned to make an immediate impact in Week 6 against Cleveland. After that though his production dipped, even as his usage increased. It didn’t help that he was a big play receiver in an offense that was operating in an overly-conservative manner. As they opened things up late in the season he started factoring in more, including a three-catch, 60-yard performance with a touchdown against Miami in Week 17. That gives him some momentum heading into the offseason.
There still looks to be plenty of room for Thornton to grow his game, especially if the Patriots re-adapt their offense with a new offensive coordinator. But his production as a rookie didn’t line up with the expectations that generally come with being a top-50 pick.
Midseason grade: C
Tight ends: D+
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 01: Hunter Henry #85 of the New England Patriots catches a pass against Jevon Holland #8 of the Miami Dolphins during the second quarter at Gillette Stadium on January 01, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Let’s revisit the thought experiment we used for the Patriots’ tight ends when we did our midseason grades. The duo of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith combined for 68 catches and 754 yards with two touchdowns. That’s just one more catch and 50 less yards, as well as four less touchdowns, than Jakobi Meyers had individually playing 14 games.
When the Patriots signed Henry and Smith in 2021, the thought was they’d return to being a two tight end passing attack. Through two seasons, that has yet to materialize.
Henry did start to come on a bit towards the end of the season. Over the final seven games, he caught 21 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown. Still, that came after a relatively unproductive three months. Plus, he had two key mistakes – a bad penalty and a pass hitting off his hands leading to an interception – in the finale against the Bills.
As for Smith, he’s another case of curious usage. He played in 14 games, but was on the field for just 40.2 percent of the team’s snaps. On top of that, less than half of his snaps saw him running routes – 56.9 percent of the plays he was on the field were runs, and another 14.1 percent saw him pass blocking.
When smith was given chances, he provided the offense with a spark. His 7.4 yards per reception led all Patriots’ qualified skill players, and his 11 broken tackles were second on the team to only Rhamondre Stevenson. He trailed Stevenson by 10 missed tackles forced despite having 251 fewer touches. His 28 touches were the ninth-most on the roster.
For the second season in a row, it feels like the Patriots’ high-priced tight end duo didn’t reach it’s potential. Once again, the focus will be on a new offensive coordinator unlocking that potential in 2023.
Midseason grade: D+
Offensive line: C-
Dec 12, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; New England Patriots center David Andrews (60) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots’ offensive line in 2022 was a story of the good, the bad, and the ugly. It took the team three months to find continuity up front, and even once it did there was still much to be desired.
From the beginning, the coaching decisions up front were in the spotlight. Back in the spring, the Patriots elected to flip the tackles, moving Trent Brown to the left side and Isaiah Wynn to the right side. Brown was up and down, with high highs and low lows. Wynn on the other hand was benched multiple times before being placed on IR in Week 11.
It took three tries for the Patriots to find Wynn’s replacement. Marcus Cannon was signed to step in, and played five games before suffering a season-ending concussion. Yodny Cajuste got a shot as well, but didn’t appear to show the coaches what they wanted to see.
In the end, that continuity ended up coming from Conor McDermott, who was signed off the Jets’ practice squad in late November and ended up starting the final six games on the right side opposite Brown.
Things weren’t as spotty in the interior. For the first time in his three-year career, Michael Onwenu got to stick to one position throughout the season. That consistency seemed to work out well for him, and he finished the season as PFF’s fourth-ranked guard allowing just 14 pressures and one sack in 18 games.
Adding to that consistency was the fact that Onwenu didn’t come off the field. His first missed snaps came when he suffered an injury in the second half of the season finale. Heading into Week 18, he was on track to be just the fourth Patriots player with a 100% usage rate since 2012.
Next to Onwenu, David Andrews turned in another solid season. To his left, Cole Strange went through the typical rookie ups-and-downs, but noticeably struggled the most when Andrews missed three games due to injuries.
As a whole, the offensive line didn’t do enough to lift the passing game though. Per PFF, 89.8 percent of the times a Patriots quarterback was pressured was due to the offensive line. That was the third highest rate in the league, with the two tackle spots being responsible for 56.7 percent of the pressures alone. Their run blocking was better but still left room to improve, and the Patriots finished with the 20th-best team run blocking PFF grade in the year.
Midseason grade: D-
