It’s been about a month since the last time we checked in on the Red Sox farm system. While there have been plenty of positives to start the season, the organization took a significant blow with Johanfran Garcia going down with a knee injury that will cost him all of 2024. On the bright side, Yoeilin Cespedes and Yordany Monegro returned to the field over the last few days, which are the two of the more exciting prospects in the farm system.
All of these round-ups will always feature “The Big 3” because everyone is eagerly awaiting their arrival. Beyond them, it will be whoever is making noise at any level of the minors. So, let’s dive in!
1. Marcelo Mayer – SS – Portland Sea Dogs – Age-21 Season
Marcelo Mayer smoking his second homer of the season. 💣
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) April 24, 2024
Little upper deck action.
pic.twitter.com/aY0HyxEI9F
Remember all the panic about Marcelo Mayer? He’s shaken off last year’s shoulder injury and has done nothing but hit since the Portland Sea Dogs kicked off their season. Through 27 games, the 2021 first-rounder has slashed .291/.341/.479/.820 with 3 homers, 13 doubles, and 6 stolen bases.
Arguably the biggest positive beyond the surface numbers is the fact that he’s cut down his K% (21.7%) by a solid chunk from 2023. It’d be nice to see him start to draw a few more walks (7.8 BB%), but so far the aggression has paid off with his ability to pile up hits. I’m not worried about the homer total either since he’s been playing in freezing conditions up in Maine.
On the defensive side of things, scouts have continued to emphasize their belief Mayer will stick at shortstop, but he has racked up 7 errors in 24 games. Nothing to freak out about yet, especially since errors can be misleading in the minors, but something to keep an eye on as he tries to earn a promotion. Either way, it’s a massive relief to see him being a productive player again, because he’s a crucial part to the Red Sox finding their way out of mediocrity.
2. Roman Anthony – CF – Portland Sea Dogs – Age-20 Season
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "🚨 Roman Anthony has homered again!That's his second homer of the day and the season.Leadoff blast to start the nightcap of the doubleheader. Just what you're hoping to see from the teenager.pic.twitter.com/erMlcg5lyC / Twitter"
🚨 Roman Anthony has homered again!That's his second homer of the day and the season.Leadoff blast to start the nightcap of the doubleheader. Just what you're hoping to see from the teenager.pic.twitter.com/erMlcg5lyC
Anthony’s elite exit velocities haven’t stopped in 2024, but he hasn’t exactly seen the results yet. So far in 29 games, he’s batting .227/.333/.373/.706 with 2 homers and 8 doubles, which leads to a slightly above-average 105 wRC+. The most concerning component of his game right is the K% spiking up to 31%, but he’s still drawing walks at a strong rate of !4%.
Keep in mind, he’s only 19 and started slow last year on the surface because of a tough hitting environment, so there’s no reason to panic. I did find it interesting that Ian Cundall, Director of Scouting at Sox Prospects, recently mentioned on his last podcast that he thinks Anthony has taken a step back in center field. This isn’t due to a lack of work or effort, but more that he’s growing into his 6 ‘2 frame a bit more, so that’s sapping some athleticism.
I always envisioned Anthony landing in a corner outfield spot like Kyle Tucker or Christian Yelich, so this doesn’t change my projection much on him. He seems like a natural fit in right field at Fenway Park, which only raises the question of what’s going to happen with Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu down the line. Both have come up in trade rumors in the past, so that will be a storyline to follow as the 2024 season continues.
3. Kyle Teel – C – Portland Sea Dogs – Age-22 Season
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Kyle Teel hit 2 homers in the 26 games he played after getting drafted last year. He's now matched that total in 9 games this year. Once again, he's going to love the Monster. 🎥: @Hunter_Noll pic.twitter.com/bDZFgMUZoY / Twitter"
Kyle Teel hit 2 homers in the 26 games he played after getting drafted last year. He's now matched that total in 9 games this year. Once again, he's going to love the Monster. 🎥: @Hunter_Noll pic.twitter.com/bDZFgMUZoY
Teel has been off to a solid start so far, with a line of .253/.364/.407/.771 and a 125 wRC+ through 24 games. It’s been nice to see him continue to handle Double-A after getting a small taste at the end of 2023, but his K% of 29% needs to improve. On the positive end of things, his BB% remains strong at 14%.
Defensively, Teel’s stats on the surface aren’t anything impressive with a Caught-Stealing% of 12%, but it’s hard to read too much into those numbers with such a small sample size. Eric Cross of RotoBaller recently was in Portland and clocked Teel with 1.77-1.92 pop times, so he’s still looking as athletic as he did last summer. It also helps when you’re seeing a throw like this just a few nights back.
Hunter Noll on Twitter: "Kyle Teel with a bullet that would make @tylermilliken_ reminiscent of his younger days. pic.twitter.com/NlSq0bKZGS / Twitter"
Kyle Teel with a bullet that would make @tylermilliken_ reminiscent of his younger days. pic.twitter.com/NlSq0bKZGS
Also, it’d feel wrong not to include anything on Teel’s post-game DJ performances. He’s continued the DJ BaseMonkey tradition after wins in 2024, which Anthony called “awesome” and motivating for all the guys. Mayer echoed similar thoughts and even told a story about how he sends different mixes to Teel on off-days, so he can be prepared for their next win.
4. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz – SP – Salem Red Sox – Age-20 season
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz has quickly become one of the most intriguing arms in the Red Sox system for me.He owns a 3.20 ERA/2.47 FIP with a 14.6 K/9, 5.0 BB/9 through 5 starts. Needs to lower the walk total, but he's had < 2 in 3 of 5.Touching 98 now. 😳pic.twitter.com/7jdf9mUx5M / Twitter"
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz has quickly become one of the most intriguing arms in the Red Sox system for me.He owns a 3.20 ERA/2.47 FIP with a 14.6 K/9, 5.0 BB/9 through 5 starts. Needs to lower the walk total, but he's had < 2 in 3 of 5.Touching 98 now. 😳pic.twitter.com/7jdf9mUx5M
I’m trying hard to keep my excitement about Rodriguez-Cruz at bay, but it’s not easy. After missing the final two months of last season with right elbow inflammation, he’s returned with a newfound velocity that has seen his fastball top out at 99 MPH and sit 94-96 MPH. When he was drafted in the 4th round back in 2021, there was always hope his stuff would tick up as he grew into his wiry frame, and it seems like the new pitching infrastructure has tapped into that.
The explosion in stuff has led to Rodriguez-Cruz missing bats at a higher rate than ever before, with a 2.96 ERA/2.31 FIP in 6 starts that includes a 14.8 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9. Cutting down on those walks will need to be a major focus, but it’s no surprise to see him struggle to harness his new arsenal early in the season. These were much-needed growing pains if he was ever going to raise his prospect stock and make a real push for the big leagues.
It’s still only Rodriguez-Cruz’s age-20 season, so it’s not like he’s some late bloomer the organization needs to rush. He feels like the exact type of arm the organization is looking to mold with their new outlook. Especially since his pitchability is what stood out most in previous years, with a curveball, slider, and changeup also in the mix, which have ticked up thanks to his overall velocity gains.
5. Hunter Dobbins – SP – Portland Sea Dogs – Age-24 season
Red Sox Player Development on Twitter: "Hunter Dobbins on Friday night:5 IP76 pitches8 K0 BB1 ER30% whiff rateThe righty lowered his ERA to 2.14 on the season. pic.twitter.com/r0KKSJczGH / Twitter"
Hunter Dobbins on Friday night:5 IP76 pitches8 K0 BB1 ER30% whiff rateThe righty lowered his ERA to 2.14 on the season. pic.twitter.com/r0KKSJczGH
Dobbins doesn’t carry the same ceiling as someone like Rodriguez-Cruz, but he’s continued to show an intriguing floor after a strong start with the Sea Dogs. In 5 starts, the righty is rocking a 2.42 ERA/2.84 FIP with a 7.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. The strikeouts need to improve if he ever hopes to make starts in Boston, but it’s been huge to watch him avoid the long ball with 0 homers given up.
While there’s some effort in Dobbins’ delivery, he’s shown the ability to hold his velocity deep into starts, touching 96 in the 5th. Then when you throw in 3 secondaries that include a slider, curveball, and splitter that could be average or better, there’s a shot at a starter arsenal. Especially with a pitching infrastructure that’s going to squeeze every ounce of juice out of the orange
Even this season alone, Red Sox fans have seen the impact of an up-and-down starter like Cooper Criswell. That type of depth is essential over the course of 162. Still, Dobbins has better stuff at his disposal so the ceiling should be higher, whether that’s making a start every 5 days or seeing his arsenal potentially tick up in a bullpen role.
6. Matthew Lugo – LF/3B – Portland Sea Dogs – Age-23 season
Hunter Noll on Twitter: "Matthew Lugo doesn't want to be in Portland anymore.The Boston Red Sox prospect goes 109 MPH off the bat (420 feet) for his SEVENTH homer of the year in Double-A..354 average with 22 RBI. pic.twitter.com/VXGjGvk8Qe / Twitter"
Matthew Lugo doesn't want to be in Portland anymore.The Boston Red Sox prospect goes 109 MPH off the bat (420 feet) for his SEVENTH homer of the year in Double-A..354 average with 22 RBI. pic.twitter.com/VXGjGvk8Qe
It’s fair to say that Lugo has been the hottest hitter in the Red Sox system in 2024 (Eastern League Player of the Week, April 15th-21st). This comes on the heels of a miserable 2023 that plummeted his prospect stock because he didn’t hit whatsoever. Right now, he’s currently raking with a slash line of .304/.389/.684/1.072 with 7 homers, 5 doubles, 2 triples, and a 195 wRC+ in 23 games.
Lugo’s strikeout issues have continued into 2024, where his rate has actually increased from 27.6% (2023) to 28.6%. You have to acknowledge the BB% as well though, which has doubled from 5.9% to 12.1%. He’s going to need to make contact more consistently if he hopes to find the same success in Triple-A or the big leagues.
Defensively, he’s spent all of his time between left field and DH this season, which only puts more pressure on the bat. He still can offer support at third base though and is planning to get some work in right field. Makes sense to increase his versatility, so that he has more paths to the big leagues with some of his other limitations.
7. Blaze Jordan – 1B/3B – Portland Sea Dogs – Age-21 season
Hunter Noll on Twitter: "Blaze Jordan just pissed on a baseball.The first home run of the season for the Boston Red Sox prospect in Double-A. pic.twitter.com/IvWAOEn3Ih / Twitter"
Blaze Jordan just pissed on a baseball.The first home run of the season for the Boston Red Sox prospect in Double-A. pic.twitter.com/IvWAOEn3Ih
Just checking, is a 17-game hitting streak any good? That’s what Jordan was in the midst of yesterday before injuring his finger, which led him to bringing home Eastern League Player of the Week from April 22nd to the 28th. He feels almost like a new player in 2024, after dropping 20 pounds and looking a lot more athletic between first and third base.
Despite a rough first week, he’s now batting .283/.342/.414/.756 with 2 homers, 7 doubles, and a miniscule 9.9% K%. Nothing that knocks your socks, but a 116 wRC+ in his age-21 season isn’t something to ignore, even if he isn’t walking much with a 5.4% BB%. His ability to consistently put the bat on the ball is an intriguing development, and while it won’t matter much if he can’t tap into more power, I’m not concerned considering the hitting environment.
It’s fair to wonder whether Jordan’s bat will ever provide enough thump to warrant a massive jump in the prospect rankings, but there is a solid utility profile forming. While he doesn’t swing and miss like Travis Shaw, he could fill that kind of bench role pretty well, especially if he continues to show 20+ home run power over a 162-game sample size. It’s fair to argue that Jordan might end up being an even better defender than Shaw with his newfound athleticism, which we know the Red Sox value with their new pitching infrastructure being at the forefront.
8. Kristian Campbell – CF/2B – Greenville Drive – Age-22 season
Beck on Twitter: "Kristian Campbell (BOS) was a 4th rounder last summer and has since retooled his swing for impact. It's paid off with two HRs this year already that were harder than his 109 mph max in '23.10 hits last week w/ 2 doubles and 3 HRs.🎥: @RedSoxPlayerDevpic.twitter.com/P7nbc5IAue / Twitter"
Kristian Campbell (BOS) was a 4th rounder last summer and has since retooled his swing for impact. It's paid off with two HRs this year already that were harder than his 109 mph max in '23.10 hits last week w/ 2 doubles and 3 HRs.🎥: @RedSoxPlayerDevpic.twitter.com/P7nbc5IAue
Campbell has been tearing the cover off the ball in High-A, which is exactly what he needed to do after returning to the level in 2024. He’s been posting some of the most elite exit velocities of any prospect in the Red Sox farm system and slashing .272/.398/.556/.954 with 5 long balls. That’s quite the improvement from a year ago, when he went deep only once in 14 games, and now has done it 5 times in his first 23 games of 2024.
While things looked a bit rocky for Campbell in center field during spring training, he’s continued to get work there and at second base to start the season. It hasn’t been a disaster by any means, but it’s still a work-in-progress out there and he’s never expected to be competing for Gold Gloves or anything like that. He has enough athleticism that finding a defensive home won’t be an issue in the long-term.
One thing that Campbell will need to improve to trigger a promotion to Double-A is lowering his K% from 29.6%. Like Anthony and Teel, it’s a great sign to see such a high BB% of 16.3%, but it’s hard to expect a guy to make more contact against tougher competition. Small sample sizes obviously apply in this conversation, so it’s something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
9. Ryan Zeferjahn – RP – Worcester Red Sox – Age-26 season
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Ryan Zeferjahn is now one step away from the big leagues after dominating AA to start the season. 13.2 IP0.00 ERA/0.73 FIP22 K (14.5 K/9)2 BB (2.0 BB/9)0 HR.176 BAAHe told @SmittyOnMLB that he's really bought into Bailey and Breslow's vision. pic.twitter.com/OgV09GefQF / Twitter"
Ryan Zeferjahn is now one step away from the big leagues after dominating AA to start the season. 13.2 IP0.00 ERA/0.73 FIP22 K (14.5 K/9)2 BB (2.0 BB/9)0 HR.176 BAAHe told @SmittyOnMLB that he's really bought into Bailey and Breslow's vision. pic.twitter.com/OgV09GefQF
Fresh off a promotion to Triple-A, Ryan Zeferjahn has taken a massive step forward under the new pitching infrastructure and isn’t afraid to let everyone know it. He’s finally cracked the code to throwing more strikes and is thriving in the relief role the front office first envisioned back in 2022. Across 13.2 IP with the Sea Dogs, he didn’t allow a single earned run and picked up 22 strikeouts and ONLY 3 walks.
Christopher Smith of MassLive.com recently dropped a great piece breaking down some of the changes Zeferjahn has gone through to get to this point. After losing roughly 8-10 pounds, the 6 ‘5 and 230 pound righty is now topping out at 101 MPH with his 4-seamer, along with a new sweeper and a cutter that moves like a slider. He’s also working in multiple inning stints, which the Red Sox have shown a liking for in recent years with the likes of Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck.
At 26, it won’t take long for Zeferjahn to push for a spot in the big leagues if he continues to dominate in Worcester. He’s made 2 appearances since his promotion to Triple-A, with only 2 unearned runs given up over 4 innings with 5 Ks. It’s nice to see 2 lethal relief prospects in Zeferjahn and Guerrero waiting in the wings, with Bryan Mata likely joining them soon on a rehab assignment.
10. Niko Kavadas – 1B – Worcester Red Sox – Age-25 season
Hunter Noll on Twitter: "Here's the ninth home run of the year for Niko Kavadas.It's getting hard to think of reasons why he isn't getting a shot in the Majors. pic.twitter.com/PcZ7wpX288 / Twitter"
Here's the ninth home run of the year for Niko Kavadas.It's getting hard to think of reasons why he isn't getting a shot in the Majors. pic.twitter.com/PcZ7wpX288
It seems like Kavadas has his sights on forcing the Red Sox to move on from Dominic Smith. 2023 wasn’t kind to Kavadas whatsoever, but he’s turned things around in a major way during his second stint in Triple-A. Across 27 games, he’s mashing to a tune of .319/.466/.714/1.180 with 9 homers and 9 doubles for a 197 wRC+.
In typical Kavadas fashion, he continues to walk at a strong clip (17.8% BB%) but also stack strikeouts (27.1%). He’s also going off against righties again (.343/.494/.806/1.300), but is handling lefties with more success (.250/.379/.458/.837). It’ll be interesting to see if he struggles against velocity as the season goes on, because that’s created some serious swing-and-miss issues for him over the years.
Ultimately, it feels like Red Sox fans will see Kavadas at some point in 2024. There seems to be a path for him to be a platoon option that resembles Daniel Vogelbach or DJ Stewart, even with his defensive limitations at first base. Obviously, that doesn’t point to the highest ceiling in the world, but both of those guys have hung around the big leagues for quite some time and been useful role players.
If you want more Red Sox content, go check out my Twitter/X profile @TylerMilliken_.
