1) Assuming the promotion of Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell, what is Ceddanne Rafaela’s role next year? – @EricGuelfi
I have a hard time envisioning Ceddanne Rafaela anywhere but center field. That was clearly the plan to start 2024 and once Trevor Story went down, they hesitated to move Rafaela to shortstop until David Hamilton was sinking the team on a nightly basis. The name of the game for this front office is run prevention and Rafaela excels at that when he’s roaming the outfield.
In 631.1 innings in center field this season, Rafaela racked up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and 5 Outs Above Average. That DRS mark is tied for the 3rd-best mark amongst all center fielders in 2024. The only guys ahead of him were Daulton Varsho and Jarren Duran who both had 17 DRS, but Duran played 179 more innings in center field in 2024.
I have my questions about Rafaela’s bat after posting an absurd 46.1% Chase% in his rookie season, but it’s clear this front office views him a long-term building block with the extension they gave him. Alex Cora mentioned that they want Rafaela to add weight and get stronger for 2025, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can tap into more power after he topped out at 15 homers in 152 games this season. He’s going to need to be better than the 79 wRC+ he posted as a rookie.
When it comes to Roman Anthony, I believe his future home comes down to who gets dealt this offseason. If Jarren Duran is moved, I’d bet on Anthony handling left field with Wilyer Abreu in right. It gets overlooked but Abreu had an elite defensive season in right field with 18 DRS and 7 OAA.
If Abreu ends up being the piece flipped, Anthony makes the most sense in right field. When Duran hasn’t been in center field this season, he’s been moved over to left field and looked smooth over there. Anthony has an above-average arm and has shown the ability to handle center field in the minors, so he has the tools to handle the hardest right field in all of baseball.
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on X (formerly Twitter): "EVERY DAMN DAY CEDDANNE RAFAELA!JAW. ON. THE. FLOOR.5% catch probability. pic.twitter.com/fjd2ZhjSut / X"
EVERY DAMN DAY CEDDANNE RAFAELA!JAW. ON. THE. FLOOR.5% catch probability. pic.twitter.com/fjd2ZhjSut
2. What are realistic expectations for the Red Sox in free agency? Max Fried? Corbin Burnes? Willy Adames? – @shaughn_rourke
Brian McTaggart on X (formerly Twitter): "Alex Bregman walks off the Dodgers with a 407-foot homer in the ninth. pic.twitter.com/ZlK1v6xkJk / X"
Alex Bregman walks off the Dodgers with a 407-foot homer in the ninth. pic.twitter.com/ZlK1v6xkJk
I’ve become very careful with setting expectations for the Red Sox this offseason. For the last two seasons, I’ve advocated heavily for them to supplement the young core at the big league level and both years it’s been ignored. Over the weekend, Craig Breslow told Rob Bradford that the plan is to be more aggressive and he echoed Alex Cora’s comments about it being time for the front office to take care of the fans, so what does that mean?
I have serious doubts about them handing out a massive deal to Max Fried or Corbin Burnes. Dishing out ace money to free agent starting pitchers over the age of 30 doesn’t seem like something this front office is geared towards doing, especially after acknowledging they targeted the right arms last offseason that ended up breaking out. Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, and Shota Imanaga all fit into that category.
Going beyond that, we do know that the Red Sox were reportedly chasing Jordan Montomgery down in free agency last winter. While Scott Boras was looking to get him top of the rotation money, the Red Sox were pursuing him at a different level with a 4-year deal on their minds. Then there was the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes, where they were willing to make a competitive offer, but that should be framed in a different lens since he was entering his age-25 season.
In order to get the right outlook for the Red Sox offseason, it’s important to know how much money the front office has to work with. Right now, there’s $153.6 MM on the books for 2025 before Giolito and Refsnyder have their options picked up. At that point, the Red Sox will have about $66.15 MM to spend before the first luxury tax of $241 MM.
Arbitration numbers will obviously factor into the equation with Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford all eligible for the first time. Sam Kennedy has made it clear he won’t tip his hand to a potential payroll budget, but the last two seasons have featured that. In 2023, the line was reportedly drawn at $225 MM and in 2024 it was announced before the season it would be lower than the year prior.
Ultimately, extensions and the trade deadline led to the 2024 Red Sox finishing with a total of $225.74 MM, but that was still well-below the first luxury tax threshold of $237 MM for 2023. So, what does 2025 look like? I think the Red Sox will end up pushing above the numbers we’ve seen the last two seasons, but they won’t be luxury tax offenders on Opening Day.
I’d expect something around the realm of $235 MM, which will point to the Red Sox front office making some real investments, but still in-between as to whether they’re fully pushing for a championship. There will be the opportunity to blow past that mark at the trade deadline if everything clicks like they hope, but there is also an escape hatch to kick the can down the road if they don’t look like contenders. Not the full court of press many Red Sox fans will be hoping for, but a slightly more aggressive approach as they spend a bit more and offload some prospect capital.
It’s hard to guess how the money will be allocated, but I’m going to bet on the rotation acquisition coming via trade. Let’s go with a blockbuster for Crochet, who’s projected Arbitration total is $2.9 MM. Tyler O’Neill will be offered the Qualifying Offer and depending on his answer, we could see a pivot to Teoscar Herndandez (unless he’s offered the QO), who the team showed a ton of interest in a year ago.
At that point, the focus will turn to solidifying the bullpen. I wouldn’t expect two significant signings like Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin a few years ago, but bringing Martin back might make the most sense. He’s hoping to play one more season and after posting a 3.45 ERA/2.78 FIP in 2024 despite a few different setbacks, it can’t hurt to extend that relationship another year.
There’s also going to be a need for an impact arm from the left-side. Even before Brennan Bernardino went down, the team was missing an arm like that late in games. While Cam Booser flashed some solid stuff this past season, I’d group him in with Zach Penrod and Chris Murphy as an intriguing depth option, but not #1 lefty material.
Beyond that, many will ponder if Alex Bregman or Willy Adames are destined to be long-term fixtures in Boston. While I really like Adames as a player, it seems like there’s already a group of teams starting to lock their eyes on him. The Dodgers are at the top of that list and they’ve taken a different approach to spending than the Red Sox in recent years.
Bregman, strictly from a profile standpoint, checks off a lot of boxes of what the Red Sox need. Strong defense, power from the right side, leadership, doesn’t strike out a ton, but he’s also turning 31 and will be chasing more money than the 6-year, $151 MM extension that Matt Chapman just signed. Doesn’t sound like a contract that will age too well, yet his relationship with Cora might be enough for the front office to overlook some of the warning signs.
So much will depend on how the Red Sox are able to target starting pitching. I’m only expecting one significant addition to the rotation at the moment, but if Crawford gets flipped in a deal for an arm, I wonder if that could lead to a free agent starter making sense. Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Alex Cobb, Walker Buehler, or maybe they circle back to Montgomery if the DBacks are looking for someone to eat his contract.
It makes your head spin trying to figure out how all of these pieces fit together. But I think this paints a fair idea of my expectations for the offseason. At least one top of the rotation arm, two bullpen pieces, an impact right-handed bat, and a backup catcher with strong framing.
3. Ideally who is your closer next season? Liam Hendriks, Justin Slaten, bring Kenley Jansen back, or somebody picked up via free agency or trade? – @WilyerHitBall
Rob Friedman on X (formerly Twitter): "Justin Slaten, K'ing the Side...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/UxTiT31Dz2 / X"
Justin Slaten, K'ing the Side...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/UxTiT31Dz2
In a perfect world? Liam Hendriks sees his stuff tick back up to where it was before Tommy John surgery and he’s able to be that veteran anchoring the back of the bullpen. When he was signed back in March, it always seemed like he was the replacement for Kenley Jansen.
Going back to Hendriks last healthy season (2022), his 4-seamer averaged 97.6 MPH. It was more like 94-95 before he suffered his most recent setback in September, so that will be something to watch once spring training rolls around. He only made 4 rehab appearances before being shelved, but he didn’t allow any earned runs, despite only striking out one and walking one.
Something that caught my eye over the last few weeks is the hype surrounding Justin Slaten. Both Andrew Bailey and Alex Cora have made a point to say he has closer potential, especially if he’s able to add weight and get a bit stronger over the offseason. While he had barely pitched at the Triple-A level before 2024, he put together a strong season with a 2.93 ERA/2.61 FIP in 55.1 IP as a rookie.
Slaten reminds me of a younger Chris Martin with his ability to limit walks (1.5 BB), get hitters to chase (34.9%), and miss barrels (4.1%). It’s a big ask to put him in the closer role in only his second season, but he has the best stuff in the bullpen right. Not to mention, he’s shown the ability to get more than 3 outs, which is a huge plus for Alex Cora over the course of 162.
Best-case scenario would be allowing Slaten to get another season under his belt as the Red Sox try to contend in 2025. There’s a major need for an impact lefty in the bullpen right now, which could point to Tanner Scott in free agency. He showed the ability to close with the Marlins earlier season and has continued to be filthy with the Padres after getting moved at the deadline with a 1.75 ERA/2.92 FIP in 72 innings.
I have my doubts about the Red Sox giving Scott the contract he’s going to demand in free agency, but with Jansen and Martin coming off the books this winter, maybe there’s a fit. Just one look at Scott’s Baseball Savant page and your breath will be taken away. It’d go a long way having another guy with closing experience as a back-up plan if Hendriks isn’t able to tap into his pre-injury form.
4. I had a rumor of a potential trade, maybe in the off-season… Marcelo Mayer to Miami for the TJ surgery recovering Sandy Alcantara. Yes or no? Your thoughts? – @ScottJohn69555
Nick Pollack on X (formerly Twitter): "34 seconds of Sandy Alcantara fastballs destroying hitters at 97+ mph pic.twitter.com/neMcxxTuuF / X"
34 seconds of Sandy Alcantara fastballs destroying hitters at 97+ mph pic.twitter.com/neMcxxTuuF
Sandy Alcantara is a dream for me. Sadly, the Marlins have already told him he won’t be moved this offseason as he continues to rehab Tommy John surgery. Marlins GM Peter Bendix knows teams will be swarming with Alcantara due $17.3 MM in 2025 and 2026 with a $21 MM team option for 2027 ($2 MM buyout).
Still, if I was Craig Breslow I’d call and see if Bendix is willing to bend with his organization at the start of a long rebuild. Alcantara is everything the Red Sox are missing at the top of the rotation. From 2020 to 2022, he led the entire sport in innings pitched with the 5th-best ERA and 9th-best FIP
Even with the Red Sox rotation taking a step forward in 2024 with the 7th-best ERA, they only ranked 16th in total innings. That should improve with Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford not having to be managed throughout 2025, but still Alcantara will only help in that department. It’d be refreshing to see the Red Sox bullpen not turn into a dumpster fire for the third second-half in a row.
Marcelo Mayer is a painful return, but if the Red Sox want to add a front of the rotation arm with term, that’s going to be the cost. The same goes for a guy like Garrett Crochet, who the Red Sox were connected to multiple times at the trade deadline. My bigger concern is what the second piece of a deal like this will look like.
Is the immediate ask for Abreu as well? Other teams know the Red Sox have a log jam on their hands, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see if this is where Breslow has a chance to be caught in a tough spot. It’s hard to envision Anthony, Campbell, and Teel being moved in a scenario like this as well.
Looking back at the return for Chris Sale in the winter of 2016, Moncada was MLB Pipeline’s #1 prospect in baseball. Michael Kopech came in at #67 with Luis Alexander Basabe being the #8 prospect in the Red Sox system and Victor Diaz being a relief prospect. Where things get tricky is that Sale was coming off of 5 straight seasons of getting Cy Young votes at this point and starting pitching has only become more expensive since then.
It’s hard to dive too deep into trade proposals until the offseason gets underway, but if the Red Sox want to make a real push in 2025, it starts with landing that starting pitcher that knocks everyone down a peg. Blank, Houck, Bello, Giolito, and Crawford feel like a group that can compete with just about anyone. Finding that arm will be quite a challenge for Breslow because everyone is starving for elite starters, which is exactly why the Mariners are already telling teams they aren’t open for business.
5. Why defense is never held accountable on this team unless you’re Yoshida and not allowed to see the field? – @svmichanco
Jake on X (formerly Twitter): "Connor Wong had absolutely no idea how to frame this one, A for effort though pic.twitter.com/HX1KRgkmnN / X"
Connor Wong had absolutely no idea how to frame this one, A for effort though pic.twitter.com/HX1KRgkmnN
First off, the idea that Masataka Yoshida is NEVER allowed to play the outfield is still ridiculous. I’m not trying to tell you he’s even average out there, but in a pinch or when he’s swinging a hot bat, it should at least be an option. Especially in a place like Fenway Park where he can be protected from having to make rangy plays.
I love Rob Refsnyder as much as the next guy, but he was absolutely lost in the month of August and wearing down. There has to be some value in rotating guys in the DH spot over the course of 162 to keep them fresh. It felt like there was a lane for that in August with Rafael Devers wearing down once again and Tyler O’Neill on the IL/needing constant workload management.
If I’m being honest, the one spot on defense that feels ignored without any significant shakeup is catcher. I’m not sure if it was overlooked because Connor Wong exceeded expectations with the bat this season, but what he did behind the plate was absolutely brutal. He racked up the 2nd-fewest Defensive Runs Saved among catchers at -14, which was one spot better than Danny Jansen, who finished with -11.
That wasn’t the only metric that strongly disliked Wong’s work on defense, as he finished in the 3rd percentile for Blocks Above Average. It didn’t get much better in the framing department either, where he ended up in the 9th percentile. Entering 2024, there was a lot of emphasis on building up competent defensive depth at Triple-A to work with the pitching staff, but that seemed to come up short in the big leagues.
The one thing Wong remained competent at defensively was his ability to control the running game, where he ranked in the 58th percentile for Caught Stealing Above Average with a 1.95 pop time. That’s where Jansen’s game fell through the floor though, as he ranked in the 5th percentile for CS Above Average and the 23rd percentile for pop time. To Jansen’s credit, he was elite in Blocks Above Average with 15 which ranked in the 100th percentile, but it still wasn’t enough to make him an average defender.
It’s hard not to wonder whether this pitching staff could take another step forward with a more dependable duo behind the plate. It’s why fans are dreaming about Kyle Teel possibly making the Opening Day roster, but that feels unlikely since he’s not a finished product defensively. Still, it’s been clear during the postseason how much a dependable backstop can help a team in big spots, whether you’re Jake Rogers or above-average framers like Kyle Higashioka and Francisco Alvarez.
I’m curious to see how the Red Sox address the catching situation this offseason, especially since Wong’s offensive breakout doesn’t seem sustainable. Do they try to capitalize on his value being at its highest and target two stopgaps, or continue his transition to being more of a utility player that can help out all over? Jansen is a free agent, so at the bare minimum, there needs to be at least one move to add to the group.
With how much the Red Sox have emphasized run prevention, this seems to be a clear area where they can improve. That’s not to act like Wong is some asset to throw to the side, but maybe he’s the second piece in a potential deal for a big arm. There’s clear value to a catcher that posted a 110 OPS+ this past season, has versatility, and isn’t a free agent until 2029.
If you want more Red Sox content, go check out my Twitter/X profile @TylerMilliken_.
