If there’s been one constant theme surrounding the Red Sox this offseason, it’s been negativity. That’s a result of a winter where the organization over-promised a “full throttle” approach that was supposed to include multiple starters being added to the mix. We’ve all rightfully complained about it enough, so let’s dive into some mostly positive predictions for the 2024 club.
1. Garrett Whitlock solidifies himself as a rotation building block again.
Garrett Whitlock of the Boston Red Sox pitches against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on May 16, 2022. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
I’m ready for Garrett Whitlock to hurt me again. Last year, I was confident that Whitlock had a future as a big league starter, but he failed to ever find his footing as he battled different elbow injuries. Now, I think Andrew Bailey has a chance to get him back on track.
Alex Cora announced on Friday that Whitlock won a rotation spot after making the proper “adjustments” this spring. He’s posted solid numbers with a 3.45 ERA/3.93 FIP over 5 starts and 15.2 IP. But as of late, Whitlock has turned it up a notch with a significant change to his arsenal.
Last year, Whitlock featured a sinker, sweeper, 4-seamer, and changeup as he transitioned into a starter role. Now, he’s started throwing a slider again that offers a different look than his sweeper with more vertical movement. He’s also added a new cutter that leaves him with what Bailey believes is 100% a starter arsenal.
It was clear last season that Whitlock was trying to figure himself out as a starting pitcher. There were multiple points where he made some pretty significant adjustments to how hard he threw his changeup and his overall pitch sequencing. Fans saw flashes of Whitlock’s potential with a strong April outing against the Angels and a series of strong starts in June, but it never sustained because his elbow gave out again.
2. Trevor Story puts together his first 25/25 season.
Trevor Story of the Boston Red Sox is congratulated in the dugout after scoring against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on August 27, 2022. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Trevor Story has been one of the biggest positives this spring for the Red Sox. You don’t even have to look at the numbers to see the confidence he’s displaying at the plate. It’s evident after seeing how uncomfortable he’s looked since coming to Boston, especially against breaking balls.
Across 40 at-bats over 15 games, Story has slashed .350/.435/.600/1.035 with 2 homers and 4 doubles. Obviously the K% at 28.3% is still a bit high, but over the last 2 weeks it’s been down to 20%. None of this will matter once the season starts, but if Story was struggling right now, the panic would be through the roof.
In terms of him reaching the 25 homer benchmark, I’m confident he can get there as long as he stays healthy. I don’t consider him injury prone because of an unlucky hit by pitch and an elbow injury he had nursed for years. Even in 2022 when he wasn’t himself offensively, he found a way to go deep 16 times in 94 games.
On the basepaths, I might be under-estimating Story a bit. He stole 10 bags in 43 games last season (shout out the bigger bases) and has his sights set on getting 30 in 2024. That would be a career-high with his best mark being 27 in 2018, but with Cora wanting to be aggressive on the base-running front, it might be a match made in Heaven.
Nobody is expecting Story to be the second-coming of his mentor Troy Tulowitzki. Yet, he should be able to produce a wRC+ around 110 with 20-30 home run power, a similar number of stolen bases, and fantastic defense at shortstop. That still would make him one of the better middle infielders in baseball, even if he’s going to rack up his fair share of strikeouts and walk at an average rate.
4. Triston Casas receives MVP votes for the first time in his career.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 28: Triston Casas #36 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the top of the fifth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on July 28, 2023 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
If Triston Casas replicates his second-half from last season, he’ll be a top 3 finalist for AL MVP. Not too many hitters are going to compete with a 1.034 OPS and 175 wRC+. But even if can’t replicate that over 162 yet, he’s not far from receiving some down-ballot votes with his overall numbers from last year.
Just for reference, Casas posted a 129 wRC+ in 2023 that led everyone on the Red Sox, including Devers who finished 18th in MVP voting. Casas is right on the brink of being in that conversation if he can add another 20 games to his slate in 2024. I don’t think we’re going to see Casas endure a big sophomore slump either, because he only looked more comfortable at the plate after seeing pitchers multiple times last season.
Casas has come into spring training this year in the best shape we’ve ever seen him. He’s also set big goals for himself of a .300/.400/.500 slash line, making the playoffs, and playing every game, so he’s not running away from the pressure in Boston. If anything, he’s continuing to embrace it and show that he thrives in such a tough market to play in.
There’s a reason why Casas isn’t going to cave on his contract demands without a chance at another platform year. Everything under the hood points to one of the best offensive bats in baseball moving forward. Good luck finding another 24-year-old coming off a season with a 92nd percentile xwOBA, 88th percentile xSLG, and 93rd percentile BB%.
5. Wilyer Abreu will be more valuable than Alex Verdugo in 2024.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – AUGUST 24: Wilyer Abreu #52 of the Boston Red Sox hits a one run single in the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on August 24, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)
When the Red Sox traded Alex Verdugo back in December, one of the first things that came to my mind was that it wouldn’t take long for Wilyer Abreu to provide similar value. Abreu was sensational in his first taste of big league action in 2023, as he hit .316/.388/.474/.862 with a 10.6% BB%. That included 2 homers and 6 doubles, which led to a 135 wRC+ that made Verdugo’s bat pretty forgettable.
After Verdugo’s breakout campaign in 2020 that led to a 12th-place finish in MVP voting, his bat weakened every season. He went from a 125 wRC+ to 106, then to 102, before ending last year at 98. While his defense in right field was spectacular in 2023, his bat failed to match what you need out of a corner outfielder.
Now, I’m not expecting Abreu to repeat those offensive numbers from the final weeks of 2023, but can he at least be a league-average bat? I definitely think so. He’s shown the ability to draw walks without a problem at every level of the minors, giving him a strong floor in terms of on-base skills with very little chase.
Cora has emphasized the importance of having a strong arm in right field to keep runners from going first to third and Abreu also has that at his disposal. He finished in the 97th percentile for Arm Strength last season and also showed the ability to play all 3 outfield spots, which Verdugo can’t do at this point. It’s also nice to know Abreu shows up to the field on time, which according to Will Flemming, has already been an issue for Verdugo again with the Yankees.
There’s also a power component to Abreu at the plate, that Verdugo has never come close to replicating. Verdugo’s highest number of homers in a single-season at any level is 13, which Abreu has already surpassed 3 times. It feels like Abreu has a floor that should at least draw him even with Verdugo, with a ceiling that could surpass him by a nice margin.
In 2023, Verdugo was worth a total of 2.0 fWAR. Abreu was on pace to beat that over a 162-game schedule, as he posted a 0.6 mark in 28 games. There will be some regression, but I expect Cora to protect him against tough lefties and keep him fresh with a crowded outfield group that will thin out after the trade deadline.
As someone who rooted hard for Verdugo in Boston, it does feel like a relief to have that experiment over. It became maddening to watch him shine for half a season and then disappear for the other 81 games on a yearly basis. I look at Abreu and see a guy who resembles Jay Bruce quite a bit on both sides of the ball.
6. Red Sox will regret not moving Kenley Jansen over the offseason.
BOSTON, MA – MAY 13: As Enrique Hernandez #5 of the Boston Red Sox holds his head in his hands, pitcher Kenley Jansen #74 hangs his head after hiving up three runs to the St. Louis Cardinals during the ninth inning in their 4-3 loss at Fenway Park on May 13, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
I haven’t loved this spring from Kenley Jansen. He’s clearly upset after being bamboozled by the Red Sox front office and ownership about the organization’s direction for 2024. Not to mention, his back and lat have both barked in camp, continuing a trend we saw at the end of last season as he wore down.
Fortunately, despite the multiple setbacks, it looks like Jansen is going to be ready for Opening Day. He touched 95 in his most recent outing against the Orioles and struck out 2 in a 1-2-3 inning. Still, I have my concerns about him being fully healthy by the time the trade deadline rolls around.
The Red Sox have made it clear with their actions that competing isn’t a priority in 2024. So, why does a steady closer worth $16 MM make sense for a club that has its sights set on developing a young core right now? It doesn’t, which is why he was initially signed by Chaim Bloom with the hopes of pushing some of their chips in the following winter.
That’s not saying the Red Sox can’t have one expensive reliever on their roster to fill the gaps, but they have that in Chris Martin. I would’ve preferred them to eat some of Jansen’s money to get a solid prospect back, especially since they’re $23 MM short of the first luxury tax. While I understand teams get desperate at the deadline, a year of team-control is worth more than 2 months of production.
It doesn’t help that once again the bullpen is in a position to be overworked again either. Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck have never made 30 starts in a season, which means they need to be protected. Initially, one of Houck or Whitlock was supposed to help support the bullpen, but after Lucas Giolitio’s injury that group has been weakened as well.
You can make the case to ship Martin out too, but this bullpen would be in dire shape at that point. Best-case scenario is the Red Sox flip both guys at the deadline for pieces that help accelerate this rebuild. Letting them walk for nothing in free agency isn’t helping anyone, which I bet Breslow will keep in mind after Bloom was ridiculed for missing selling opportunities last summer.
7. Red Sox finish with a better record than they did in 2023.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – MAY 28: Manager Alex Cora #13 of the Boston Red Sox watches from the dugout during the fourth inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on May 28, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
What’s made me the angriest about this offseason is Red Sox ownership treating the 2023 team like it was garbage from April to October. That wasn’t the case even if they hoped to frame it that way, with the team looking destined for a mid-80s win total until it completely went off the rails in September. Keep in mind, the Red Sox were 7 games over .500 at the trade deadline last season before Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, and James Paxton all went down.
I want to make it clear, I don’t see them as a playoff team, but I think they can be a win or two better than 78-84 for the third straight year. I don’t think we’ll see the same highs and lows as a season ago. It’ll be a more consistent and mediocre squad that doesn’t fall through the floor in the final month of the year, as the young core serves as the engine of the group.
I’m sipping the Andrew Bailey Kool-Aid with the belief that Bello, Crawford, and Whitlock will all take steps forward in the rotation. Story and Rafaela will improve the defense up the middle in a significant way, and Casas should be on the brink of establishing himself as one of the most elite bats in the game. It’s a young and solid squad that deserved a lot more support in 2024.
In the grand-scheme of things does that marginal improvement mean much? Not really. The most important thing is the young core elevates enough to make John Henry no longer be comatose.
Don’t get it twisted, the Red Sox have a bright future and an intriguing young group. It’s just that ownership has left them and the fans out to dry with inconsistent messaging/actions. 6 months from now don’t be surprised if one of the main talking points of the 2024 season is that this team would have stolen a Wild Card spot with a little more help.
Hello, 79-83.
