In retrospect, maybe Bill Belichick wasn’t entirely wrong. As the Kansas City Chiefs proved, maybe defense still wins championships.
At the very least, maybe it still plays a principal role – and maybe that’s a good thing for the Patriots going forward.
Yes, Patrick Mahomes is all-world and was, as usual, scintillating in the late fourth quarter and overtime of Kansas City’s 25-22 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. But as noted by ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky in the following tweet, the real backbone of this Chiefs championship was the Kansas City defense, which made a historic run through the postseason by thwarting four of the top six offenses in the NFL.
So what’s the point? Well, if you want to say that Patrick Mahomes won the Super Bowl, fine. It’s hard to make an argument to the contrary. With the championship at stake, Mahomes led the Chiefs on a game-tying scoring drive at the end of a regulation and then a touchdown drive in overtime. As usual, he was money. But you want to say that the championship was largely the product of the Kansas City defense, well, that would be right, too. And it would be easier for the Patriots to replicate than finding the next Mahomes.
Some facts worth considering: this year, the Chiefs ranked second in the NFL in scoring defense. During the year, including playoffs, they became the first team in NFL history to never allow as many as 28 points in a single game. The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL in sacks (57) and were tied for fourth in fewest touchdown passes allowed, which speaks volumes. Their one potential vulnerability? They allowed 4.5 yards per rush, which ranked 25th in the league. But in the Super Bowl, including Brock Purdy’s scrambles, the Niners ran for 110 yards on 31 rushes and Christian McCaffrey ran 22 times for 80 yards, averages of 3.6 and 3.5 yards per rush. Those numbers would have ranked second- and third-best.
The conclusions?
Defense still wins – at least to a degree
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 11: Trent McDuffie #22 of the Kansas City Chiefs breaks up a pass intended for Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter during Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium on February 11, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
True fact: The Chiefs offense ranked 15th in the NFL in scoring this year. That’s right, 15th, the definition of average. Admittedly, the Kansas City offense was playing better at the end of the year than at the beginning, thanks largely to the development of wide receiver Rashee Rice and the versatility of Isaiah Pacheco. But the defense was Kansas City’s backbone all year.
And make no mistake, defense was the order of the day in the NFL during the 2023 season. Overall, scoring was down. Eight of the top 11 defensive teams (based on scoring) qualified for the playoffs this season and the top three – Baltimore, Kansas City and San Francisco – were all conference finalists. Last year, only six of the top 12 defensive teams made the playoffs.
Now, the obvious questions: are defenses catching up to more modern and open NFL offenses? Or was this just an aberration?
Improving defenses hardly means that offense is worthless
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 11: George Karlaftis #56 and Justin Reid #20 of the Kansas City Chiefs tackle Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers in the first half during Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium on February 11, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
As always, there are two ways of looking at this: does the rise of defense make offense less important? Or does it mean that you need an even better quarterback to beat a team like the Niners? As is often the case in the NFL, a top offense almost guaranteed you a playoff berth. The top eight scoring offenses in the league this year all reached the playoffs, which is fairly typical. Last year, eight of the top nine qualified with the lone exception being Detroit, which narrowly missed. The Super Bowl champion was the again the Chiefs, who ranked first.
So what does all of that tell you? A lot. Yes, defense mattered more this year than in past years. But if previous seasons are any indication, the Chiefs offense this year was the real outlier because it won the title while ranking 15th in scoring during the regular season.
And in the playoffs, well, the Kansas City quarterback ranked first at his position in QBR. The KC defense allowed Patrick Mahomes to do less overall, but he was still an enormous difference maker at the end.
