With the Red Sox, there are always questions. This year, there are more – and bigger ones – than usual.
If you’ve read some of these baseball previews before, you know that we subscribe to a pretty simple formula when it comes to predicting the fortunes of the Red Sox (or any team, for that matter) for the coming season: generally speaking, more ifs mean more losses. Given that this is the analytical age when, for whatever reason, people feel the need to control and predict everything – let’s just surgically remove all the entertainment value from sports, shall we? – our formula looks something like this: If = L.
(A word of note: this formula, like all others, will undoubtedly and needlessly increase in complexity over time in hopes of accounting for other variables like Injuries (In), Prospect Integration (PI), Player morale (Pm), Managerial ineptitude (Mi), Weather (We), Faulty expectations (Fe) and others.)
So what does this all mean for the Red Sox? Well, since our offseason plan that was rudely dismissed, Las Vegas odds makers have the Red Sox’ projected win total at 80.5, which seems reasonable given that they have basically been, in aggregate, a .500 team (356-352) for the last four years. The Red Sox haven’t sucked so much as they have been astonishingly average and, well, boring, though average and boring are often synonymous in an American League East that features three or four legitimate playoff contenders. The 2023 Red Sox were the only AL East team to finish with a losing record but will pick a relatively medicore 12th in this year’s annual amateur draft, which is to say they didn’t exactly tank well, either. In fact, during the entire tenure of former general manager Chaim Bloom, the Sox generally failed at contending, tanking or improving the organizational pitching talent that one evaluator recently placed 29th among the 30 major league teams.
So, you want to know what’s wrong with the Red Sox? A lot. And if you’re asking any of the following questions – beginning with the most obvious one – you’re not alone:
Is ownership even on the same page anymore?
(Translation: “What the f— is going on?”)
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 26: Chairman of the Boston Red Sox Tom Werner and principle owner John Henry walk on the field before the game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on June 26, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
If you haven’t read this recent account by John Tomase of NBC Sports Boston, we suggest you do. And while you can certainly focus on the suggestion that Red Sox employees are “embarrassed” by the team’s offseason – and you should – of greater note is the following section:
“I get the distinct sense that if it were up to Werner, in particular, the Red Sox would’ve made more of an effort this winter. Why claim the team plans to go `full throttle’ if he knew it was a lie that would just boomerang back in his face? He’s a TV guy who’d like to sell a compelling TV product. He recently insisted that the ownership group remains `in lockstep,’ but after 20 years together, we shouldn’t be surprised if such a profound change in organizational philosophy has not been embraced with unanimity.”
Get the picture? Henry and Werner have been together a long time. This isn’t a family business like the Patriots or Bruins. Larry Lucchino was part of the original leadership group and was pushed out. Theo Epstein left and is now back. John Henry and Tom Werner have both remarried – that isn’t any sort of criticism as much as it is a statement fact and example of how things have changed – and both men are now basically in their mid-70s. (Henry will be 75 in September, Werner will be 74 in April.) From the outside, it’s starting to feel like the Red Sox are in an ownership transition. That can be true even if the club is not up for sale. Where is this going? And are Henry and Werner even in agreement on that anymore?
Is Craig Breslow equipped for the challenge?
Feb 15, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow talks with media at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Werner’s “full throttle” comment has garnered most of the ridicule this offseason, but if we’re being truthful, Breslow certainly played along. Did he blurt out ridiculous promises? No. But he did talk about the need to use prospects as collateral in trades, the desire to sign two starting pitchers, the need to put emphasis on the major league team. Despite that, he’s made nothing but moves that Chaim Bloom might have made – at least philosophically. (Most everything Breslow has done has been geared toward the longer term.) When you add all that up – and, again, presuming that ownership was in sync – we can’t help but use this analogy: the Red Sox didn’t change the menu when they hired Breslow, they just changed the chef. Same groceries, pal. Now go make dinner. And we have no idea he can cook. Or if he can just bus tables.
Where is the pitching going to come from?
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 27: Pitcher Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox gets a new ball back after giving up a two-run home run to Isaac Paredes #17 of the Tampa Bay Rays , left, during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on September 27, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Early in the offseason, Werner was asked whether the Red Sox’ relative fiscal conservatism was the result of economic constrains or a belief that, based on their young organizational talent, they weren’t quite ready to contend. While that question ultimately produced the famous “full throttle” comment, the Sox subsequently failed to sign any front-end starting pitching. Why? Did they try and fail? Were they delusional about the cost of pitching (specifically for Yoshinobu Yamamoto) on the market? Or was one hand (Werner) just not paying attention to the other (Henry)?
Regardless, here’s the concern: if and when the Red Sox are ready to contend again, where is the pitching going to come from? As noted, the organizational pitching talent (and we use that term loosely) is nonexistent. Presumably, Breslow was hired to do what Bloom did/could not – and he has already made some relatively minor moves to bring in some younger, “project” pitchers. Still, this market had (and has?) some good pitching talent. If the Red Sox weren’t going to get it now, when and where do they intend to get it?
For now, it certainly feels like the Sox don’t want to part with some of their better positional prospects (shortstop Marcelo Mayer, catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Roman Anthony) and their others obviously weren’t enough to make a significant trade this winter. Next year’s free-agent market is slim. So how long before the Sox can do something they’ve rarely done and build a pitching-rich system? Three years? Five? Never?
Is this year already a lost cause?
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 28: Jordan Montgomery #52 of the Texas Rangers pitches in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks during Game Two of the World Series at Globe Life Field on October 28, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Well, unless something changes relatively soon, the answer is probably yes. Plain and simple, the current Sox just don’t appear to have the horses. Could that change if Brayan Bello becomes a front-end starter … and if Garrett Whitlock stays healthy … and if Tanner Houck puts it all together … and if Nick Pivetta has finally figured it out … well, yeah, I guess. But even the analytics junkies will tell you it’s all about odds and the
likelihood of outcomes. Right now, the Sox project to be exactly what they’ve been – a relatively mediocre (or worse) team, with no reliable pitching in the majors or the minors.
Incredibly, there is still pitching available. Blake Snell feels like a longshot, but Jordan Montgomery should be in the Sox’ range. Is he a stud? No. Be when healthy, he’s a capable, middle-of-the-rotation starter who can sneak into the front end. Adding him alone might be enough to make the Sox a wildcard contender – assuming they don’t continue to cast off other pieces. And it would at least give the Sox some veteran pitching for whenever their young positional players are ready.
One final thing: Lucas Giolito, whom the Sox signed to a two-year contract, has an opt-out after this season. If Giolito pitches well, he’ll go back to the market. If he pitches poorly, you’re stuck with him. In the longer term, he really solves nothing.
How costly was the Chaim Bloom era?
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – OCTOBER 01: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox jogs to the dugout after flying out against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on October 01, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
In a word, VERY.
All things considered, the biggest, most obvious cost of the last four years was the greatest commodity in history: time. The Red Sox spent four years under Bloom and really didn’t get any better. Given that Bloom came from Tampa Bay, the expectation was that he would, at a minimum, improve the pitching in the Boston organization – and it may have gotten worse. The Red Sox are now five years removed from their last World Series – ok, it’s no exactly a major drought – but they’ve further deteriorated. And we’ve already spent hundreds of words lamenting the state of pitching in the organization.
But there’s also this: Bloom’s departure led to a regime change, which leads to other philosophical changes. For example: last offseason, the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90 million contract that many deemed an overpayment. And that was with the idea that Yoshida would play left field. Now the Sox are already talking about Yoshida spending more time at designated hitter than anyone else on the roster – this comes after reports that they considered trading him – which means Breslow has to clean up some of Bloom’s big league mistakes, too.
This is what happens when you keep changing baseball executives. Before he can start building, the new guy has to tear down at least some of the structure left by the old guy.
