Let’s get this out of the way: making the case for Bill Belichick’s return is harder to make than the case for firing Bill Belichick. And it’s also shorter.
But that doesn’t mean it’s any less important.
And so, after presenting you with the case for firing Belichick – which you can find here – today’s assignment is to do the opposite. Hiring the next Nathaniel Hackett, after all, could actually leave the Patriots in far worse shape than they are right now. In the case of Hackett, remember, the Denver Broncos went from 7-10 to 5-12 despite adding quarterback Russell Wilson to the roster. Hackett actually went just 4-11 before the Broncos fired him during the 2022 season, a decision that ultimately led to the hiring of the experienced, accomplished Sean Payton.
Following a 1-5 start this year, the Broncos are 6-3 under Payton since, including a 1-0 record behind Wilson’s current replacement, Jarrett Stidham.
The point?
Bill Belichick may not be at the top of his game anymore, but he’s still better than Nathaniel (Buddy?) Hackett.
1964: American comedian Buddy Hackett (1924 – 2003). (Photo by Evening Standard/Getty Images)
We all know the approximate numbers at this point, but let’s revisit some of them for clarity. With or without Tom Brady, Belichick is a brilliant tactician and the possessor of 302-164 career record in the regular season, 31-13 in the postseason. His 332 combined career victories place are just 16 short of eclipsing Don Shula atop the NFL’s list for all-time coaching victories. (Shula famously opened a chain of steakhouses, the “347 Grille,” in honor of his achievement.) A whopping 296 of Belichick’s career victories have come in New England, where he has taken the Patriots to nine Super Bowls and, of course, won six of them.
To date, in fact, Belichick’s 4-12 record is the worst of his career, something will remain true whether the Patriots win or lose Sunday’s season finale against the New York Jets. He has coached 29 years. which makes 2023 an obvious aberration on his resume. Or does it?
Here is the case, then, for keeping Bill Belichick coach:
You can split the proverbial baby
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – NOVEMBER 05: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots looks on during the first half in the game against the Washington Commanders at Gillette Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Of all the arguments made by Belichick loyalists, this might be the most common: keep Belichick the coach and fire the GM, which is to say that the Patriots could merely strip Belichick of duties as the personnel czar. Many (including me) regard this as preposterous because the idea of Belichick working with someone else’s players feels like a recipe for disaster. He’s too controlling, too set in his ways and too arrogant for this all to work in a healthy environment. But what if those people are wrong? What if someone else can effectively pick the players, especially on offense – especially at quarterback – and Bill just has to devise the game plan and coach the game on Sundays.
Wouldn’t that work? The answer is yes, at least on paper. Belichick would still get his coaching victories in pursuit of Shula and the Patriots would be better off for it on multiple fronts. It’s an admittedly idealistic scenario that many teams successfully implement. The Patriots are probably heading toward that structure regardless, albeit without the complexity of an accomplished coach who comes with a resume that would intimidate most anyone to work with him.
The Pats have already started to recover and are already on their way back
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 07: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick reacts during the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on December 07, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Here’s a different way to phrase this argument: the real problem was Mac Jones. And that could absolutely be true.
In the two games before Zappe was named the starter, the Patriots scored a combined 13 points in losses to the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants, the latter of which is similarly one of the worst teams in football. The Pats were then shut out in Zappe’s first start – a 6-0 defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers – though the game was played in wet conditions at Gillette Stadium. Since that time, while going 2-2, the Pats have scored 21, 17, 26 and 21 points with Zappe at the helm. OK, so they haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard like the 2007 Patriots. But the Pats have indisputably been better, which has to be some reflection on Belichick’s coaching, right?
Now, let’s say the Pats implement the above (which is to strip Belichick of his GM responsibilities) and improve the roster. With Bill coaching, could they build upon their existing momentum and go .500 over a longer stretch en route to a 9-8 or 10-7 season. Well, anything is possible. The defense has played well of late. Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon will be back next season. If you just eliminate Mac Jones and go forward, the Pats can be right where they need to be.
Belichick is still a better option at coach than most anyone on the market
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 07: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick reacts during the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on December 07, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
So fine, you fire Belichick. Then what? What coaching candidate on the market is going to be better than arguably the greatest coach in NFL history? Jerod Mayo, deemed by many to be the Belichick’s successor, has never so much as been an NFL coordinator let along head coach. At a minimum, he lacks experience. And unless the Patriots are planning to hire Jim Harbaugh or trade for someone like Mike Vrabel, the likelihood is that they will end up with a coach who has limited or no experience – or a coach who has failed in another operation.
As was the case with Tom Brady, any step away from Belichick is almost certainly a step down, which leads to a different question: is it a step down from the Belichick of his peak years – or is it a step down from the Belichick of today? Certainly, the Belichick of old was largely peerless. But if the Belichick today doesn’t have to worry about players and can successfully separate himself from the control freak/personnel decision-maker, he’s still the best candidate to be walking the sideline on Sunday.
Belichick deserves it
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots reacts to a call during the second half of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)
Admittedly, this argument isn’t rooted in cold, surgical logic – but that hardly makes it irrelevant. Over the last 24 seasons, Belichick has been the chief officer, decision-maker and strategist of the greatest dynasty in football history. Again, this season is the worst of his career. Doesn’t he deserve a mulligan? Don’t his previous 23 years in New England outweigh (by a landslide) the outcome of the 24th? On some level, Belichick himself believes this. Lest anyone forget, during the offseason, Belichick had the following answer what reasons he could give fans to provide them some assurance: “The last 25 years,” he said.
Though Belichick was criticized for that answer – the entire Patriot Way is built on the notion that past performance does not guarantee future success – he’s at least partly right. His track record is as sterling as the Lombardi Trophies that decorate the display case at Gillette Stadium, which is The House That Belichick Built as much as it is The House That Brady Built.
