So here you go, five Red Sox questions on Opening Day. The truth, of course, is that there are considerably more.
But as we – ok, I – like to say, the more questions you have, the more losses you get. Or, more specifically, the more ifs … the more Ls. Given that we are an the analytical age where there is a formula and calculation for everything, the pertinent formula is If = L, which is another way of saying that everything rarely goes according to plan. And so, if Brayan Bello becomes and ace … and if Trevor Story plays to his peak … and if Triston Casas continues to develop … and if Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford stay healthy … well, you get the idea. The 2024 Red Sox, like the 2023, 2022 and 2021 teams before them, have relatively little margin for error.
Or maybe no margin for error.
For example: the Red Sox’ biggest offseason pitching acquisition for this year is/was Lucas Giolito, who has already been lost for the season to an elbow injury. In the process, the Sox also lost $19 million of their payroll for next season because Giolito will now almost certainly exercise his player option at that number. Already, Giolito is now one of the ifs that has produced the wrong answer, which leaves the Red Sox with a big red X in the column marked “Outcome.”
And they haven’t even played a game yet.
For now, we’re actually going to leave Giolito off the list of five questions to ponder as the Red Sox enter the 2024 season because the season starts now. Replacing Giolito with someone like Jordan Montgomery (one year, $25 million with Arizona) could have gone a long toward softening the blow, but the Red Sox clearly aren’t in the business of aggressive spending anymore. As such, welcome back to the early 1990s, when the Red Sox entered the season as a mid-market team with relatively little expectation of winning a championship.
Nonetheless, the season will go on and there will be baseball (or some version of it) played in Boston this year, and there will be consequential things to consider:
Is there a path to playoff contention?
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 05: The Boston Red Sox run to Garrett Whitlock #72 as they celebrate their 6-2 win against the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card game at Fenway Park on October 05, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Before we even begin, let’s disclose something. The Red Sox have qualified for one postseason in the last five years with three last-place finishes. As such, you may notice that many of the photos included in today’s post harken back to a happier time – October in general, but more specifically, October 2021. At this stage – like standing on the tee box on 17th at Sawgrass – we might as well embrace the power of positive visualization.
Can the Red Sox be better than we think? Sure. Any team can. And honestly, this is one of the benefits of having low expectations. The Sox are not devoid of all talent. In fact, they have more capable players than many might guess. Rafael Devers is a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. Trevor Story is a two-time Silver Slugger Award winner (albeit in Colorado) who can also play good defense. Triston Casas batted .293 with a .922 OPS in his final 106 games last year, and he was even better after the All-Star break, when he batted .317 with a 1.034 OPS. Remember that the Sox won 78 games last year and are not – repeat NOT – a total zero.
The real questions, of course, are in the starting rotation. Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello all have enough talent to be front-end starters. (Please do not confuse that with ace talent, though you never know.) If the Sox can get two of those three starters to: a.) stay healthy, and b.) produce consistently, well, everything will change. In this case, those ifs are more like IFS, which is to say that there is no more important question than the starting pitching.
One quick note: this is as important to the long term as the short term. We keep saying this but it bears endless repeating: the Sox’ minor league system is one of the worst in the game as it relates to pitching. Whitlock, Houck, Bello and even Kutter Crawford are all very important in fostering hope.
OK, so who are the most important positional players?
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 22: Trevor Story #10 of the Boston Red Sox throws to first during the third inning against the Chicago White Sox at Fenway Park on September 22, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
Well, nothing is ever quite so simple as to boil it down to one thing or one player, but let’s go with Trevor Story, who has been close a bust in his first two full seasons in Boston. First remember that Story was brought here to replace Xander Bogaerts. Then remember that he missed much of last year to injury. Story has a .227 career average with a .685 OPS during his Red Sox career, which makes him a boom-third-of-the-lineup hitter.
Is he better than that? Yes. (We think so.) But we need to see it.
For starters, whenever the question of the Red Sox’ shoddy defense comes up, the Red Sox keep citing Story’s presence at shortstop as if he’s Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel. In that way, he’s a linchpin. But given the absence of proven right-handed production in the Boston batting order, he’s important to the offense, too. On the road, for his career, Story is a .234 hitter with a .723 OPS. (Again, bottom-third-of-the-lineup.) Most of his career production came in the lunar atmosphere at Colorado. Unless the Red Sox can move Fenway Park to the top of Mount Washington in the next week or so, Story’s going to have to find a way to produce here on Mother Earth. The balance of the batting order depends on it.
One additional note: outfielder Tyler O’Neill (a career .816 OPS against left-handers) and newly-acquired second baseman Vaughn Grissom (.320 overall with an .889 OPS in his minor-league career) bear watching, too. Remind me again why the Sox let Justin Turner go?
Wait, what about the bullpen?
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 15: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after the final out of the game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on August 15, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Excellent question. In fact, not enough is being said or written about the relief corps, which feels like a rapidly growing concern.
First off, the Red Sox spent at least some of the offseason exploring the idea of trading Kenley Jansen for financial reasons, which should make you want to retch. (That’s a whole other story.) Second, Jansen then missed much of spring training, though he has been deemed “ready” for the start of the season. (Undoubtedly, he will be in his usual peak physical condition.) Beyond that, right-hander Chris Martin – who might have been the Sox’ best player last year – also had some forearm issues during camp. Combined, those two pitchers will be 75 years old at season’s end, which means they enter the regular season with red flags draped all over them.
There is also this: when Giolito went down – and when he wasn’t replaced – Whitlock and Houck effectively became shoo-ins for the starting rotation. Had one (or both) been in the bullpen alongside Josh Winckowski, the relief corps would return virtually intact from a year ago. Now, if the starting pitching and defense do hold up – and both are questions – there is the concern of whether the bullpen can seal the deal. And given the way things have gone in recent years, it would be just like the Red Sox to catch a few breaks and still undermine themselves.
Is Alex Cora a candidate to be fired?
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 19: Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora talks to the media prior to Game Four of the American League Championship Series against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on October 19, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)
Well, let’s put it this way: Cora is entering the final year of his contract and did not get an extension – and he didn’t necessarily seem to want one. How’s that for a (un)healthy situation? Officially, the Red Sox don’t want to force Cora on new baseball operations leader Craig Breslow the way they arranged the (failed) marriage between Cora and Chaim Bloom. Fine. Unofficially, Cora seems to want out as much as (or more than) the Red Sox want Breslow to pick his own guy, all of which feels like a major fire-code violation.
At this point, we’re all expecting this to fail, which raises an interesting question:
What if the season is a success? What if the Red Sox actually come together and it all works? Would the Red Sox actually find themselves in the awkward position of having their manager walk away from the team?
Unlikely, we know.
But such in such odd circumstances are precisely where the Sox find themselves these days.
Does Red Sox ownership care anymore?
BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 30: Owner of the Boston Red Sox John Henry is presented with the trophy after the Boston Red Sox defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-1 in Game Six of the 2013 World Series at Fenway Park on October 30, 2013 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Now this is a loaded question.
Do they care anymore? Well, sure. But do they care like they used to? It certainly doesn’t feel like it. For starters, using the photo above as a starting point, Larry Lucchino has been gone from the organization for a while now. John Henry and Tom Werner are in their mid-70s. Where once the Red Sox were Henry’s most cherished asset, they now merely serve as Henry’s oldest child (Kendall Roy?) in a empire that includes ownership of (or part ownership in) Roush Racing, Liverpool, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the PGA tour, virtual golf and other assorted endeavors.
Where is this all going? Heaven knows. But last year, excluding Covid, attendance at Fenway Park was at an all-time low during the Henry ownership era. Opposing fans routinely overran Fenway Park. (Yes, the Bastille was repeatedly stormed.) Television ratings are now one-fifth or one-sixth or where they were in 2007, at the peak of the Sox’ height. Now, if you’re looking for theories, Theo Epstein joined the Fenway Sports Group as a minority partner last year and will advise on the sports franchises like the Red Sox and Penguins. A reasonable guess here is that we’ve begun the transition out of Henry-Werner to new age overseen by Epstein (acting as an arm of FSG), though Theo obviously wouldn’t have complete control of the payroll. Or would would he?
As seems to be the case with most all other things concerning the Sox … we shall see.
