*Cracks knuckles*
The Patriots’ offseason is here. Let’s dig in.
Normally when I do my offseason coverage, it’s incremental. Cover free agency during free agency, the draft during the draft, etc. It can all be cumulative, so it gets difficult to look too far down the road.
Given the big-picture nature of this offseason though, we’re going to deviate from that plan right now. After taking a step back during the 2022 season, the Patriots need to take two steps forwards during the 2023 offseason. How can they do that? It’s not a simple answer.
1. Find a new offensive, special teams coordinators
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 01: Joe Judge, head coach Bill Belichick and Mat Patricia of the New England Patriots look on before a game against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on January 01, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Starting off with a no-brainer here, as the Matt Patricia play-calling experiment has reached its logical conclusion – something the team confirmed Thursday night. Many of the issues with the Patriots’ offense this year relate directly back to coaching. With Patricia now expected to be removed from the role – either reassigned or let go – the search for the next offensive coordinator will be underway soon if not already. Bill O’Brien is a leading candidate, but names like Kliff Kingsbury and Zac Robinson have also popped up.
The offense wasn’t the only unit to flutter in 2022. This was one of if not the worst special teams season in the Bill Belichick era. Cam Achord clearly is knowledgeable, has a passion for the game and the respect of his players, but at this point, the results speak for themselves. Whether its moving Joe Judge back to his old position or making an outside hire, a change is needed.
2. Upgrade positional coaches
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 18: Coach Matt Patricia
and Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots react during the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)Hiring a new offensive coordinator will go a long way towards fixing what ailed the Patriots’ offense in 2022, but it’s not a complete measure when it comes to the coaching staff. Spots further down the ladder also need to be addressed. For more than two decades, the Patriots had some of the best positional coaches in football on the offensive side of the ball. That group was highlighted by offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia and running backs coach Ivan Fears, both who have retired in recent years. Josh McDaniels was also the quarterbacks coach from 2012-2021, except for the 2020 season.
Bill Belichick’s value of versatility is something he applies not only to his players, but his coaching staff. He’ll regularly talk about how the best coaches can coach any position, regardless of experience. While there may be some truth to that, the offensive coaching setup that existed in 2022 was too much of a stress test with the assignments of Patricia and Judge (QB coach). If the Patriots want to fix their offense, they need to put together a coaching staff led by individuals who have experience doing so.
3. Don’t get dramatic at quarterback
Nov 20, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) and quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) walk onto the field before a game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots spent the last year making things as hard as possible on second year quarterback Mac Jones. It’s time to take a different approach.
Instead of going on a wild goose chase for the quarterback that can cover up the flaws with the roster, the Patriots should instead expend those assets to fix the flaws themselves. That’s a much more doable task, and one that will yield the Patriots a much clearer result. On a rebuilt roster, one of two things will happen – either Jones will get back on track from where he left off in 2021, and the team is off and running. Or, he still struggles, and then the team can look to add a QB of the future in a much better 2024 class, and bring that new quarterback into a well-built situation.
They have their starter, their backup (Bailey Zappe) and a valuable veteran voice (Brian Hoyer) in place. The only move they should consider at the position this offseason is bringing in a comparable player to Hoyer (as a guide for Jones) if he retires. Expense those assets elsewhere, build up the roster, and be ready to surge forward either with Jones’ resurgence in 2023 or a strong situation for the next guy in 2024.
4. Internal free agency
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 25: Cornerback Jonathan Jones #31 of the New England Patriots runs after an interception during the second quarter at Gillette Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
The Patriots have 23 pending free agents this year, including 19 unrestricted free agents. They fall into four groups…
Must return:
-NoneNone of this year’s Patriots internal free agents feel make-or-break. Part of that is the position some of the players play, but it’s not like the last few years where there were one or two players whose free agency decisions would dictate the course of the offseason.
Worth an effort to bring back:
-CB Jonathan Jones
-S Jabrill Peppers
-LS Joe CardonaJonathan Jones isn’t a ‘must return,’ but he’s close after having a tremendous season in his first year playing on the boundary. Really, it comes down to the nature of the position. One way or the other, the Patriots need to add size on the boundary at cornerback. Letting Jones walk would open up a spot for that player to play a significant role, while bringing Jones back would add depth to their rotation along with Jalen Mills and Jack Jones. They could also move Jones back into the slot, but they still have Marcus Jones and likely Myles Bryant to handle that role.
Only bring back on team-friendly deal:
-RB Damien Harris
-WR Jakobi Meyers
-IOL James Ferentz
-OT Conor McDermott
-DT Carl Davis
-DT Daniel Ekuale
-LB Mack Wilson
-LB Raekwon McMillan
-SPT Cody Davis
-OT Yodny Cajuste (RFA)
-DB Myles Bryant (RFA)
-WR Kristian Wilkerson (ERFA)First off, no this does not mean the Patriots should bring all of these players back. What this is is the group of players that the team should set their number on, and not go above.
The reason Jakobi Meyers makes this group is that wide receiver contracts are exploding around the league and he’s going to command significant money on the open market. Like at cornerback, the Patriots need to add to the top of their depth chart at wide receiver. It’s harder to share snaps at that position so letting Meyers walk, assuming they make a corresponding move, wouldn’t be a disaster.
Back if not retired:
-S Devin McCourty
-SPT Matthew SlaterBoth Devin McCourty and Matthew Slater have hinted at the fact they will retire this offseason. If they don’t though, the door should be open for them to return. Either players going elsewhere in free agency seems unlikely.
It’s time to move on:
-WR Nelson Agholor
-OT Isaiah Wynn
-OT Marcus Cannon
-CB Joejuan Williams
-P Michael Palardy
-K Quinn Nordin (ERFA)Nelson Agholor and Isaiah Wynn were both benched this year, and Joejuan Williams likely would have been as well had he not gotten hurt prior to the start of the regular season. Michael Palardy struggled mightily, and Marcus Cannon is likely to retire. Next.
5. Contract extensions
Nov 14, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger (23) and linebacker Josh Uche (55) react after making stop against the Cleveland Browns during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
As we’ve established, this year’s Patriots internal free agency group isn’t as consequential as in years past. At the same time, they are projected to be towards the top of the league in available cap space. While they can and should use some of that money in free agency (more on that in a second) it also provides them with a chance to get ahead on some of next year’s pending contracts.
Three players stand out as candidates for long-term extensions as their rookie deals wind down – Kyle Dugger, Michael Onwenu, and Josh Uche. All three are set to be free agents after the 2023 season. If the Patriots can get an extension done with at least one player in this group this offseason before the cap jumps next year, that would be big.
6. Get a veteran No. 1 wide receiver
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins #10 of the Arizona Cardinals lines up during the NFL game against the Los Angeles Rams at State Farm Stadium on December 13, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Rams defeated the Cardinals 30-23. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The last few years, the Patriots have had too many needs to invest the assets it takes to add a true, game-changing No. 1 wide receiver. While they certainly have other needs this year, they’re more targeted. It’s time to go get the pass catcher fans have been waiting for for years. What they need is the guy who will draw coverage away from those two, while still being competitive. A player on the boundary who will command the other team’s top cover corner, help over the top, and dictate coverage assignments across the board.
What the Patriots should not do is go into the draft to address this need. Given their history of failing to develop receivers, drafting one with a premium pick – especially in this weak class – would represent a tremendous risk in an offseason where the Patriots can’t afford to miss with a premium asset. Instead, the goal needs to be to find a wideout who has already proven he can be a difference-maker in the NFL.
While it’s not the best year to make such a move, there are some intriguing options out there. DeAndre Hopkins will likely be the best player who will be available and fits the description. We went more in-depth on what a move to acquire him may look like here.
7. Sign one of the top offensive tackles in free agency
November 13, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey (69) during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Levi’s Stadium. Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Now that the wide receiver position has been addressed, it’s time to get to the biggest need for the team this offseason – tackles. As mentioned above, Isaiah Wynn is a pending free agent, and the Patriots can save about $6 million against the cap if they release Trent Brown. It’s the perfect chance to hit the reset button at the position.
If there were ever an offseason to need a tackle, this is a good one. Both the free agency and draft classes are deep. We’ll start in free agency, where top options include left tackle Orlando Brown or right tackles Mike McGlinchey and Kaleb McGary.
Because of the depth in this class and the draft class, it doesn’t matter which side the Patriots choose to address in free agency. Obviously getting a higher-level left tackle would be good given the impact of the position, but they could sign one of the two right tackles, save some money, and still be covered on the other side (we’ll get there in a second).
8. Other free agency additions
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – JANUARY 08: James Bradberry #24 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates an incomplete pass during the first quarter against the New York Giants at Lincoln Financial Field on January 08, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
Tackle is the big need for the Patriots, but not the only one. There are a few other positions they should look to.
As we discussed earlier, adding size to the boundary cornerback spot is a must. Bringing in a veteran for that role could also help add some leadership to a young group. Free safety is also a need the Patriots may need to fill if Devin McCourty retires. Finally, the Patriots might want to add another running back if Damien Harris leaves, specifically a pass-catcher.
9. Draft an offensive tackle in the 1st round
Sep 17, 2022; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) rushes behind the blocking of Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Broderick Jones (59) in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
Finally the reason you’re all probably here – the draft. And we have the Patriots double-dipping in the first round.
This is a very, very deep tackle class, especially at the top. At least five players in this class have the potential to be franchise tackles at the NFL level, and the Patriots should take advantage.
If the Patriots sign one of the right tackles – McGlinchey or McGary – in free agency, they could look to draft one of the top left tackles in Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., or Georgia’s Broderick Jones. If they add Brown instead as a left tackle, 6-foot-8, 360 pound Ohio State right tackle Dawand Jones would take over on the right side.
10. Other draft needs
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 03: Cornerback Julius Brents #23 of the Kansas State Wildcats intercepts a pass intended for wide receiver Quentin Johnston #1 of the TCU Horned Frogs in the second half at AT&T Stadium on December 03, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)
So the Patriots have used their first pick on a tackle, and for the sake of continuity traded their second for DeAndre Hopkins. What should they do with their remaining nine picks?
Their next biggest need, again, is a big cornerback. If they sign a player like Bradberry or Gilmore it would likely be for just a year. They should also draft a prospect at that position to help fill the need long-term.
They could also use a young versatile safety who could help fill some of the deep safety responsibilities if Devin McCourty leaves, as well as offer some insurance behind Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips.
If Jakobi Meyers leaves, slot receiver will also be a need. With Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith heading towards the end of their contracts, using a late-round pick on a project tight end to ‘redshirt’ in 2023 and take over in 2024 should also be in the cards.
An off-ball athletic coverage linebacker remains a need as well. Finally, kicker and punter could both be needs given the way Nick Folk’s age and the way he fell off at the end of the season, as well as Jake Bailey‘s guaranteed money in his contract potentially being voided due to his late-season suspension.
