For the first time in six years, the New England Patriots are heading outside of the country to play a football game. They’ll be Europe for the first time in over a decade, in Frankfurt Germany on Sunday to take on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Patriots were early participants in the NFL’s International Series, which began in 2007. They had games in London in 2009 and 2012, and then played in Mexico City in 2017. They’re 3-0 in those games with wins over the Buccaneers, Rams (both London games), and Raiders (Mexico City), making them one of just five teams to play multiple games outside the U.S. without a loss. With a win, they’d be the first team to be 4-0 internationally.
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Still, even that 2017 trip to Mexico City – a 33-8 win over the Raiders – was a long time ago in football terms. This team is in a very different spot that team was, as they’re trying to avoid what would be their second three-game losing streak of the season and pick up some positive momentum heading into the bye week next week. They’ll be doing so against a Colts team that has a chance to get back to .500 heading into their own bye week, and remain in the AFC’s Wild Card picture.
There’s an extended level of familiarity between these teams for non-division opponents, having played each of the last two years. In 2021 the Colts beat the Patriots 27-17 in Indianapolis to kickstart what was a backslide to close out that season. Last year the Colts came to Gillette a week after firing their offensive coordinator, and with a backup quarterback fell to the Patriots 26-3.
Who comes out on top as the rubber-match of the post-Tom Brady era takes place? Here’s what to watch for on Sunday…
Stop the run
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 05: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts carries the ball during the second quarter of the game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
The Colts’ plan to win the game is simply, run the ball. It’s been there identity all year – they’re averaging 134 rushing yards per game in their wins, and 114.8 in their losses. For the season, their 4.3 yards per attempt rank 11th in the league. Since the return of all-pro running back Jonathan Taylor in Week 5 they rank ninth in that category.
Taylor was a problem for the Patriots in that 2021 matchup rushing for 170 yards on 29 carries, including a 67-yard run to ice the game in the fourth quarter. Last year Taylor missed the Patriots matchup, and without him the Colts ran for just 78 yards on 22 carries.
With Taylor, the key it to hit him early and not let him build steam. This year he’s averaging more yards after first contact per carry (2.3) than before (1.8). He’s also breaking a tackle on average every 7.8 carries – a career best.
For the Patriots to get to Taylor early, they’ll need to win at the line of scrimmage. That puts defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux in the spotlight.
As much as the Patriots’ defense struggled last week, Barmore and Godchaux were the lone bright spots. Barmore, in particular, has been arguably the Patriots’ best player for the last month. Meanwhile, they’ll be going against a Colts interior offensive line that has struggled this year. In particular, four-time All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson hasn’t been himself this year – especially against the run. His 56.3 PFF run blocking grade to this point is a career low.
If the Patriots can win up front and slow down the running game it will force the Colts to put the ball in the hands of backup quarterback Gardner Minshew (starter Anthony Richardson is out for the season). While Minshew is one of the league’s best backups, he hasn’t been able to consistently win games throwing the ball in his career.
Minshew has thrown for over 300 yards eight times in his career, and is 0-8 in those games. When throwing for over 250 yards, he’s 3-11. Even with their banged-up secondary, it would benefit the Patriots to have Minshew and the passing game decide this game for the Colts, not Taylor and the running game.
What will the wide receiver rotation look like?
Aug 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Tyquan Thornton (11) during the first half against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Another week, another chance to see how the Patriots view their wide receiver room. Which players will get more or less of a chance compared to how much they played last week?
Just as a refresher, Demario Douglas played the most snaps of any Patriots wide receiver last week at 83 percent. Jalen Reagor was next at 77 percent, followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster at 36 percent. Tyquan Thornton played 19 percent of the snaps but those all came early in the game – he was benched four minutes into the second quarter. Additionally tight end Mike Gesicki, who Bill Belichick called the team’s “fourth receiver,” played 86 percent of the snaps as the team relied heavily on ’12’ personnel.
With DeVante Parker ruled out for the second week in a row, the personnel available is the same as last week. Will anything change though? Will Thornton’s benching carry over to another week? If it does, the Patriots may not have any choice but to finally activate rookie Kayshon Boutte. If both Thornton and Boutte don’t play the Patriots are leaving themselves very thin in terms of personnel at the position, and will have to ask for a lot from Gesicki.
A clean game from the special teams units
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – NOVEMBER 05: Brenden Schooler #41 of the New England Patriots reacts during the second half in the game against the Washington Commanders at Gillette Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
The Patriots’ special teams units have struggled all season, but last week their mistakes were magnified. While the defense was able to work around a 37-yard kickoff return to open the game, penalties on punts late in the game proved costly.
In what is likely to be a low-scoring, ball-control, field position battle against the Colts, the Patriots can’t afford to make similar special teams mistakes. This is a week the Patriots need the kicking units to be a positive, not a negative.
One other thing to watch on special teams – the scoreboard. Last week’s game in Frankfurt between the Chiefs and Dolphins saw punters hitting the suspended scoreboard at Deutsche Bank Park during warm-ups. Prior to the Patriots’ Week 4 game in Dallas we highlighted the challenges a low scoreboard can pose on special teams – those will all be in play again this week.
