What to watch for when the New England Patriots host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in AFC East action.
Divisional football games are usually closer and more physical than the average NFL matchup. That should be ramped up this Sunday when the New England Patriots host the Miami Dolphins in Week 5 action.
For the Patriots right now, offense is at a premium. Through four games the Pats rank 31st in scoring and dead last in total yards. Last week the Patriots had issues giving the ball away, with three turnovers in the game against the 49ers after turning the ball over just once the previous three weeks.
On the other side is a Miami team that – while usually an offensive juggernaut – is also struggling to light up the scoreboard. Things haven’t been clicking without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered a concussion in Week 2. In the two games since Miami has scored a total of 15 points, and had just 184 yards of total offense and under 100 yards passing last week against a Tennessee defense that was a bottom-five unit in the league heading into the game.
After turning to Skyler Thompson in the first game without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins moved on on recently-signed Tyler Huntley last week. That led to some growing pains for Miami, although Huntley will get the start again against the Patriots. Will we see something similar this week? We’ll start there in this week’s “5 Things.”
Star receivers…without a quarterback
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 08: Jaylen Waddle #17 celebrates with Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins after gaining yardage against the New York Giants during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
The drop-off from Tua Tagovailoa has taken its toll on the Miami star skill players. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for eight catches for 49 yards last week, and seven for 66 the week before. There are more plays to be made on tape, but the quarterbacks can’t consistently make them. Hill was visibly frustrated on the sideline last week.
However, that doesn’t mean the Patriots can get away with paying less attention to either player. “I don’t want to sleep on these guys,” head coach Jerod Mayo said this week. “I know they had some struggles and things like that, but this is still a very good football team with weapons across the board.”
In previous weeks we’ve talked about the Patriots’ secondary being mismatched against teams with bigger, more physical receivers against their smaller, faster cornerbacks. Miami is built with speed rather than size, leveling the playing field.
How do the Patriots handle those weapons? They’ll actually have some options. When it comes to matchups, Jonathan Jones has historically been good against Hill. When he was out last year though, Christian Gonzalez filled in and played well himself.
With the Patriots playing more zone coverage this season, that could play to their advantage. While Gonzalez has shadowed the other team’s top receiver at times this year, the Patriots could take the approach they used last week against a loaded 49ers offense and play sides, with the defensive backs working to just keep things in front of them (they’d need to do a better job of that than they did last week).
In theory, this would force the Dolphins to methodically march down the field, decreasing the margin for error for an offense that is not on the same page right now. Playing zone also helps the Patriots keep eyes on the quarterback, which is important against a player whose legs can be a weapon like Huntley. That brings us to our second point…
Setting the edge
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 19: Anfernee Jennings #33 of the New England Patriots in action during the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 19, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The Patriots have struggled to set the edge early in this season – both against the pass and the run. Quarterbacks have escaped the pocket too easily and too frequently against New England, and last week they couldn’t hem in outside rushing attempts as the 49ers ran for over nine yards a carry off left and right tackle.
One way the Patriots can improve in this regard is personnel. They were very thin on the edge last week, especially with Anfernee Jennings out. Middle linebacker injuries are having a chain effect on the edge too, with Jahlani Tavai playing out of position off the ball.
With Sione Takitaki and/or Marte Mapu potentially returning from PUP and IR respectively this week, the Patriots should have more options at middle linebacker that will let them put Tavai back on the edge. Jennings potentially returning as well would offer a major boost.
Another player who could be in for an increased role is Christian Elliss. Elliss has shined on special teams in recent weeks but also started to play a bit on defense. Would the coaching staff reward that performance with a bigger defensive role? Elliss has the ability to play both on and off the ball.
The other thing the Patriots can do to improve their edge presence is simply be more disciplined. Yes, there does seem to be an emphasis on being more aggressive in the rush, but there’s a fine line between aggressive and reckless. One player who has toed that line is Joshua Uche, who played 63 percent of the snaps last week with Jennings out – 20 percent more than his next-closest game this year.
It will be interesting to see how much Jennings plays coming off that rough performance. His usage will be a sign as to whether the coaching staff is planning this level of aggression or if Uche is playing that way on his own.
Ball security is job security
Sep 29, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) is tackled by San Francisco 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward (7) during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images
Four weeks, four fumbles for Rhamondre Stevenson so far this season. His ball security is now squarely in the spotlight as October begins – to the point where he could lose his starting role.
“That’s definitely under consideration,” Jerod Mayo said this week, when asked if Antonio Gibson could get the start at running back. “I’ve had multiple conversations with Rhamondre. But look, we can’t preach that ball security is job security and still have him out there the majority of the time. So, I think it sends a stronger message to the players that there are certain things that we just can’t do to win, especially with the team that we have today.”
Sending a message is one thing – and an important thing for the coaching staff to do. At the same time Stevenson is one of the Patriots’ top playmakers, especially in a game where they’ll probably be more run-heavy than usual. Not starting is one thing, but how much will the Patriots limit his role? How much can they afford to do so?
If the Patriots do plan to limit Stevenson, they could look to add another back to the gameday roster to help split the workload. If Kevin Harris, who had a strong summer, is among the practice squad elevations, that’s probably not a great sign for Stevenson having an extensive role on Sunday.
The good news for Stevenson and the Patriots is this Dolphins defense hasn’t done much in terms of knocking the ball loose this season. They’ve forced just two fumbles through four games. Last year Miami ranked tied for 10th in the NFL with 15 fumbles in 17 games.
Nick Leverett’s starting debut at center
August 8, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots guard Nick Leverett (51) protects the line against the Carolina Panthers during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots’ offensive line still is hardly settled. It seems like each week we’re highlighting a change up front. For the most part though that’s been at tackle, and this week we’re talking center.
Sunday will be the Patriots’ first game without veteran starter David Andrews. Nick Leverett, who stepped in for Andrews last week, is expected to start in his place.
Unlike the Patriots’ old offensive system, under Alex Van Pelt the center leads the way in setting the protections instead of the quarterback. So in addition to just blocking, seeing how Leverett handles those responsibilities will be key.
“You can’t fill those shoes with one foot,” Van Pelt said on Thursday when discussing replacing Andrews. He noted that some of the pre-snap responsibilities will go to Brissett, but Leverett will still be in a pivotal role.
“Obviously it’s a huge drop [from Andrews]. Just the person, the leader, everything, his intelligence, his experience,” Van Pelt added. “Jacoby is going to have to help, but Nick is trained to do it and ready to go.”
The other thing to watch with Leverett will be his snaps. For the most part this summer he was fine in that regard, but did have a few wild snaps late in camp and the preseason.
Snap velocity is also something to keep an eye on. Behind this offensive line every tenth of a second matters – can Leverett get the ball back quickly in shotgun without being erratic.
One more thing – Leverett is listed on the injury report with an ankle issue. Given that, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Patriots elevate rookie UDFA center Bryan Hudson from the practice squad as a backup. Hudson is the only other true center currently on the Patriots’ roster.
Special teams
Aug 15, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots punter Bryce Baringer (17) punts the ball during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Jeremy Springer deserves a lot of credit for the first month of the season. Through four weeks, the Patriots’ special teams unit has been one of the best in the league. The miscues have been few and far between with the biggest – a blocked field goal against Seattle – set up by a bad penalty by the offense.
Special teams is a way teams can win on the margins, and in a game that is expected to be close and low scoring like the one this Sunday that is especially true. Whether it be a field-flipping punt or a big return the specialists – for both teams – will have a chance to leave a mark on this game.
The Patriots’ punt unit is one area of special teams that will deserve extra attention this week. Last week they were excellent, with all four of Bryce Baringer’s punts downed inside the 20. This week though they’ll face a Miami team that ranks third in the NFL averaging 16.8 yards per punt return.
Most of those returns have come from former Patriot Braxton Berrios, who has been limited so far this week with an ankle injury. Given that and the lacking state of the offense though, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Dolphins put Tyreek Hill – an incredibly dangerous returner – back deep at least a few times to try and create a spark. That will be a significant test for the Patriots’ punt coverage team.
