Most New England Patriots fans would have probably been ecstatic if told back in August that their team was going to be 2-1 in the division through their first three divisional games. That kind of start in the division surely would have the team looking like early contenders, given the non-division opponents on their schedule – right?
Well, not quite. With losses to seemingly beatable teams like the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders those two divisional wins are the only wins on the record. Still, if the Patriots do want to make a push back into the playoff picture divisional games are the quickest way to do so. The team will have another chance to pick up a divisional win this week, on the road against the Miami Dolphins – the only AFC East team they’ve yet to beat this year.
READ MORE:
—Week 8 Patriots Mailbag
—The long-term implications of this year’s NFL Trade Deadline
—There’s a ‘real possibility’ the Dolphins are without their top receiver on Sunday
In past years, the Patriots’ annual trip to South Beach has been a tough one. New England has lost three games in a row in Miami, five of its last six, and eight of its last 10 at Hard Rock Stadium (although this drought actually predates the current name of the building, which was called Sun Life Stadium – two names ago – the last time the Patriots won consecutive games there).
Coming off of a win over the Buffalo Bills – another kind of victory that’s been evasive of the Patriots in recent years – can Bill Belichick’s team build on that momentum with a win in Miami? Here are some things to watch heading into the game…
Keeping last week’s changes in place, Part 1
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 22: Patriots’ offensive linemen Mike Onwenu and Sidy Sow during the fourth quarter of the game against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium on October 22, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Last week the Patriots made a number of personnel-related changes on offense that seemed to jumpstart the unit and certainly impacted their win. How many of those changes will remain in place this week?
The biggest chance was Mike Onwenu kicking out and playing right tackle for the first time since 2021. It’s possible the team wanted to do this sooner but Onwenu’s ankle injury limited his mobility too much to defend the edge, but he had an excellent game against the Bills. His presence on the right side seemed to boost the entire line as well.
Pending injury, there’s no reason the alignment should change this week. If there is any change, it likely wouldn’t be Vederian Lowe going back to right tackle, but Conor McDermott – who was re-signed to the practice squad last week – stepping in at right tackle with Onwenu moving back inside, benching rookie Sidy Sow in the process. That would leave the Patriots with the offensive line they had for most of the second half of last year.
That group is certainly better than the one that started this season, but not as good as the one with Onwenu at right tackle. The Patriots may think Onwenu is a guard long-term, but him playing on the edge offers them the best chance to win games right now, plain and simple.
Keeping last week’s changes in place, Part 2
Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas (81) runs with the ball during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Moving on from the offensive line, the Patriots made changes to their wide receiver rotation as well. Kendrick Bourne was the team’s most-used receiver, playing 93 percent of the snaps. Both Demario Douglas and Jalen Reagor (who has since been signed to the active roster from the practice squad) saw increased roles in that game as well.
Between Bourne and Douglas adding significant yard-after-catch threats, and Reagor’s speed, the Patriots were able to stretch the Bills’ defense significantly sideline-to-sideline. That allowed Bill O’Brien to go to some of the passing concepts that Mac Jones has succeeded in since college (something Jones pointed out after the game) which hadn’t been parts of the offense prior to that point this year.
With those increased roles, DeVante Parker took a step back playing just 58 percent of the snaps in the game. On top of that, JuJu Smith-Schuster didn’t play due to a concussion.
Parker and Smith-Schuster are the Patriots’ two highest-paid wide receivers. Will that fact get them back in the lineup? Or will the Patriots prioritize speed and quickness after having success with that approach last week?
Tackling
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 15: Jaylen Waddle #17 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates a touchdown with Tyreek Hill #10 and Raheem Mostert #31 during the first half in the game against the Carolina Panthers at Hard Rock Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by https://x.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1717283700101075421?s=20)
One thing that absolutely does need to change for the Patriots this week from last week is their tackling effort. Last week the Patriots allowed the Bills to regularly break tackles and extend plays. Their 43.7 PFF tackling grade was the worst of the season to this point, for a team that ranked top-five in most major tackling metrics heading into the game.
That cannot happen again against a Dolphins team that lives on yards after the catch and yards after contact. So far this year the Dolphins rank fourth in both broken tackles off carries and broken tackles off receptions.
In the Week 2 matchup, the Patriots allowed the Dolphins to break six tackles in a 24-17 Miami win. That number needs to come down this week. With Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert all banged up this may be an easier task this week than it was back in September, but it’s still something to keep an eye on.
Can Christian Barmore take the game over?
Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) reacts after a sack during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Defensive tackle Christian Barmore has been on a tear to start the season. That included last week’s monster performance against the Bills when he was credited for four pressures by PFF (which feels low low), a sack, and two run stops. The prior week against the Raiders he had two pass breakups at the line of scrimmage, and five run stops.
If the Patriots want to slow down Miami’s offense, their best chance is Barmore dominating on the interior once again. He should have a real chance to do so too. In the first meeting, Miami left guard Isaiah Wynn allowed just one pressure and no sacks. Wynn was placed on IR by the Dolphins earlier this week, and his replacement Lester Cotton allowed four pressures and was called for two penalties in 33 snaps last week.
The Dolphins may also be without center Connor Williams, who has been on the injury report all week after missing the last two games. He’s been replaced by Liam Eichenberg, a true guard who has a 25.6 pass blocking PFF grade so far this season. Between Cotton and Eichenberg, the Patriots should be able to dominate the interior of the offensive line – an effort that would likely be led by Barmore.
It’s not just on the interior that the Dolphins’ line is banged up either. Starting left tackle Terron Armstead has been on IR since Week 4. He’s been replaced by Kendall Lamm, who has allowed at least one sack in three of the last four games.
In total, the Dolphins could be down three of their five starters on the offensive line for this game. It’s an area the Patriots can and should be able to take advantage.
Expect the unexpected on special teams
FOXBOROUGH, MA: Jason Sanders of the Miami Dolphins has his field goal attempt blocked by Brenden Schooler of the New England Patriots during the third quarter at Gillette Stadium on Sept. 17, 2023. (Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
When these teams met in Week 2, the Patriots pulled a fast on on the Dolphins’ special teams unit. That was the game that featured the Brenden Schooler blocked field goal after the running start.
On one hand, let’s see if the Patriots try that play again, or build off of it. They still should have the tell on punter/holder Jake Bailey, or if Bailey has changed things up that could create other issues for Miami if he’s overthinking.
At the same time it wouldn’t be surprising if Dolphins’ special teams coordinator Danny Crossman draws something up special for the Patriots, to get some revenge for what Joe Judge and Cam Achord had for his unit in September. That wouldn’t just have to be on a field goal play, but could appear anywhere in the kicking game.
