The drill that predicts Patriots pass rushers

To find the next Patriots pass-rusher in the draft, it often boils down to the results from one of the Combine’s more unheralded events: the three-cone drill.

No Combine in 2021, as NFL talent evaluators adjusted to the continued restrictions of a COVID-wracked world. But the three-cone and all the other familiar drills have lived on at Pro Days and other events, and Pro Football Reference gathered the results like it does every season. Bill Belichick almost always drafts at least one player who ranked highly at his position in the three-cone – and it’s particularly eye-opening at defensive end.

Out of 16 DEs drafted by the Patriots since 2000, 10 of them participated in the three-cone drill. Six of them ranked fourth or better at the position. Four ranked second.

Three-cone results, good or bad, don’t necessarily indicate long-term NFL success. For every Chandler Jones (4th in three-cone in 2012), there’s a Jake Bequette (2nd in three-cone in 2012). There are outliers like Trey Flowers (7.34, 10th) and Zach Moore (7.41, 11th), and Flowers has become a premier edge defender, while Moore fizzled out after four seasons and only 26 games. The important thing, here, is that the drill consistently draws the interest of the Patriots.

Wide receiver Diondre Overton runs the three-cone drill during Clemson’s 2020 Pro Day. (Clemson/NFL)

The drill itself is quite simple: players run from the first to second cone, then from the second to the third cone, and back. The best times are typically from receivers and cornerbacks in the 6.5-second range. But the 6.75-7.00 range is excellent for defensive ends. It’s not surprising that the Patriots, who often run a lot of stunts and twists, want their pass-rushers to have short-area quickness. The three-cone results are the best measurement of that.

Belichick’s most recent three-cone stud on the edge is 2019 third-round pick Chase Winovich (6.94, 2nd at “EDGE” in 2019). The former Michigan product has flashed as a pass-rusher in his first two seasons in New England, with 11 sacks and 22 QB hits in 32 games. With no edge players drafted in 2020, Kyle Dugger was the guy, based on posting a ridiculous 6.70 in 2019.

Predicting The Next Pats

The average three-cone time of all 10 DEs drafted by Belichick is 7.13, but five of them had sub-7 times. Low performers like Flowers and Jarvis Green (7.52) skew that number. The average position rank is 5.8. So with all this data in mind, let’s take a closer look at the top-7 edge defenders in this year’s three-cone results, and whether they’d fit with the Patriots.

• Jayson Oweh, Penn State

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  Three-Cone Time: 6.83 seconds
  
  Oweh is an exciting prospect because all his measurables, not just his three-cone, are off the charts. He has prototypical size at 6-foot-5 and 257 pounds, and already looks like he can defend the run on the edge at the NFL level.
  
  His lack of experience and pass-rush production (literally zero sacks in 2020) is going to make him a late-first-round pick at best, and the Patriots may need to trade up from 46 if they really want him. But there's little doubt that Bill Belichick likes the raw traits here, and he could afford to let Oweh develop behind the Pats' newly stacked front-seven.

• Shaka Toney, Penn State

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  Three-Cone Time: 6.95 seconds
  
  The NFL.com comparison for Toney? Derek Rivers. That might ring some alarms for you, but the point is that, right or wrong, Belichick has taken a liking to these kinds of players.
  
  It seems that, at the NFL level, Toney is going to have to make his bread with speed and athleticism. There are concerns that he lacks the physicality or toughness to defend the run on the edge or win his pass-rush battles that way. But his short-area quickness as an edge defender could intrigue Belichick enough to spend a day 3 pick on him and see what happens.

• Patrick Johnson, Tulane

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  Three-Cone Time: 6.97 seconds
  
  Johnson's ceiling could be compared to that of a recent Patriots free-agent signing, Matthew Judon. He was also a day 3 pick and has turned into a Pro Bowler. The Patriots would be hoping Johnson could find that same trajectory.
  
  The Tulane product is described similarly to Judon. Strong, physical, well-rounded. He just lacks the desired athletic traits that would otherwise get him drafted earlier. But the three-cone time is certainly strong. And under Belichick, he'd have a chance to contribute rotationally early with the potential to become a starter down the road.
• Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh

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  Three-Cone Time: 6.97 seconds
  
  Weaver lacks the high-end athleticism to make him more than a fourth or fifth-round pick, but he's described as a player who could be a physically strong, two-gapping edge presence in a 3-4 look. And his player comparison? Deatrich Wise Jr.
  
  So the Patriots could very well come calling for Weaver, who would have a better shot of contributing as a rookie in New England than he would most other places, where there aren't as many 3-4 bases. The Pats always like to find edge-setters and two-gappers, especially cheaply. Weaver's short-area quickness is underrated, based on his three-cone. He could be a steal for them.

• Payton Turner, Houston

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  Three-Cone Time: 6.98 seconds
  
  Turner may not have quite as good a three-cone as the three names that came before him on this list. But he has much bigger upside as an athletic three-down threat in either an odd or even front.
  
  There's a lot for Belichick to love with Turner. Three-year starter, prototypical edge defender size (6-foot-5, 270 pounds), versatility, and of course short-area quickness. He's still developing and it's an offense-heavy draft at the top, so he's likely to be pushed to round 2. But he seems like a guy that the Patriots would target with the 46th pick or somewhere in that range.

• Jonathon Cooper, Ohio State

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  Three-Cone Time: 6.99 seconds
  
  Cooper was a four-star recruit heading into Ohio State, but never really lived up to that billing. Sounds like the kind of guy that Belichick may feel he can turn into something. Cooper does have NFL-caliber size at 6-foot-3 and 253 pounds, so it's likely that a team will give him a chance.
  
  However, Cooper's relatively disappointing run at Ohio State and under-developed techniques will make him a day 3 pick at best. But hey, he's quick in the short areas. So don't be surprised if the Patriots take a flyer on him, as either a late pick or as part of what's expected to be a smaller-than-usual undrafted free agent class.
• Elerson Smith, Northern Iowa

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  Three-Cone Time: 7.00 seconds
  
  Unlike Cooper, Smith has a pretty good chance to be drafted - just in the fourth or fifth round. His intriguing size (6-foot-6) and length will be too intriguing for a team to pass up on in the day 2-3 range.
  
  Smith may lack the desired bulk to play an edge position in the Patriots' 3-4 defense as currently constituted. Drafting him could signify a transition back to 4-3 at some point. Either way, his quickness for his size and overall athletic upside would make him an intriguing developmental prospect for the Pats.

What About Other Positions?

The three-cone drill isn’t only important for the Patriots on the defensive line. Wide receiver Julian Edelman (3rd), defensive back Devin McCourty (3rd), and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (3rd) are a few notable examples of players at other positions who ranked highly in the three-cone. So here are several more names to keep in mind.

— Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
— Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
— Milton Williams, DT, Louisiana Tech
— Nick Niemann, LB, Iowa
— Jacob Harris, WR, Central Florida
— Eric Stokes, DB, Georgia
— Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, WR, Northwestern

As is often the case, the Patriots are virtually impossible to predict at the draft. But keep the three-cone results in mind. Because history suggests that they’ll target someone who scored well in their favorite drill.

Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Have a news tip, question, or comment for Matt? Yell at him on Twitter @mattdolloff and follow him on Instagram @mattydsays. You can also email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.