If there’s one thing that’s become clear about the 2023 NFL Draft, it’s that it’s segmented. It’s tough to say whether this is a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ draft class overall, because it very much varies from position-to-position.
That’s especially true in the first round. Some positions have players flying up mock drafts, while others may not be seen in the first 31 picks (the Dolphins lost their pick for tampering) at all this year.
Quarterbacks
TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA – NOVEMBER 19: Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass against the Austin Peay Governors during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Current record: 5 in 2018 (Baker Mayfield 1st, Sam Darnold 3rd, Josh Allen 7th, Josh Rosen 10th, Lamar Jackson 32nd) and 2021 (Trevor Lawrence 1st overall, Zach Wilson 2nd, Trey Lance 3rd, Justin Fields 11th, Mac Jones 15th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), Anthony Richardson (Florida), Will Levis (Kentucky)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Hendon Hooker (Tennessee)
The first four quarterbacks are all projected to go in the top 10, or even the top five this year. Whether or not this record gets tied will come down to what teams think of Hooker, who has a big arm and can create outside of structure but will be a 25-year-old rookie coming off of a torn ACL. Those factors may limit his upside as a project player, so the kind of team that would take him high is very specific – a team with an already-strong roster that feels it might be a QB away or soon will be in need of one.
At one point, the Ravens seemed like a very logical landing spot for him at the 22nd pick, given the uncertainty about Lamar Jackson’s future. However, things now seem to be trending towards Jackson returning to Baltimore. One pick later sit the Minnesota Vikings, who have Kirk Cousins on an expiring contract with no obvious replacement on the roster. There’s also the chance that a team like the Raiders or Titans could pass on a quarterback at the top of the board, then move back up into the first to take Hooker – like the Ravens did with Jackson in 2018.
While that’s what it would take to tie the record, we probably won’t see this one get broken this year. After Hooker, no other quarterbacks are expected to go in the top 100. Tanner McKee from Stanford and Jaren Hall from BYU make up the next tier of passers in this draft, with both expected to go in the fourth round at the earliest.
Running backs
AUSTIN, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 25: Bijan Robinson #5 of the Texas Longhorns runs between Brooks Miller #41 of the Baylor Bears and Devin Lemear #20 in the second half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 25, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Current record: 5 in 2008 (Darren McFadden 4th, Jonathan Stewart 13th, Felix Jones 22nd, Rashard Mendenhall 23rd, Chris Johnson 24th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Bijan Robinson (Texas)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama)
Given the way NFL offenses have changed and become more pass-focused in the last decade, this record may never be reset. The fact that there’s even a first-round lock at running back is rare, but Robinson is that good. Some have called him the best running back prospect to come out since Saquon Barkley. Gibbs, given his elite pass-catching ability, could justify a late first-round pick from a contending team like the Eagles or Chiefs as well. But seeing five running backs go in the top 100 this year would be something, forget in the first round.
Wide receivers
CHESTNUT HILL, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 17: Zay Flowers #4 of the Boston College Eagles lines up against the Maine Black Bears during the first half at Alumni Stadium on September 17, 2022 in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Current record: 7 in 2004 (Larry Fitzgerald 3rd, Roy Williams 7th, Reggie Williams 9th, Lee Evans 13th, Michael Clayton 15th, Michael Jenkins 29th, Rashaun Woods 31st)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State), Zay Flowers (Boston College), Jordan Addison (USC), Quentin Johnston (TCU)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Josh Downs (UNC), Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee)
Yes, despite the NFL’s emphasis on passing in recent years, the first-round wide receiver record is two decades old (although there were six first-round receivers in 2005, 2007, 2009, 2015, 2020, and 2022). That’s likely to hold out at least another year.
This is viewed as a ‘down’ year for receivers, especially after getting well above average classes the last three years. At this point, some are even wondering if Johnston, who at one point was considered the consensus WR1 and a top 10 pick, will end up being a first-round pick after a tough pro day. Maybe the general importance of the position drives guys up the board, but with this class stacked at so many other positions teams may just prefer to wait.
Tight ends
SOUTH BEND, INDIANA – SEPTEMBER 10: Michael Mayer #87 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in action against the Marshall Thundering Herd during the second half at Notre Dame Stadium on September 10, 2022 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Current record: 3 in 2002 (Jeremy Shockey 14th, Daniel Graham 21st, Jerramy Stevens 28th) and 20017 (O.J. Howard 19th, Evan Engram 23rd, David Njoku 29th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Michael Mayer (Notre Dame), Dalton Kincaid (Utah)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Darnell Washington (Georgia)
It feels like there’s a good chance this record could get tied this year, in what is viewed as one of the best tight end classes in recent history from top-to-bottom. In fact, that depth is what may keep the record intact. If teams feel like they can get solid tight end prospects later they may be less inclined to reach. But Mayer, Kincaid, and Washington all have first-round traits, and it wouldn’t be unrealistic for any of them to be selected in the top 31 picks. It’s just a matter of will that be the case for all three?
Offensive tackles
Sep 17, 2022; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) rushes behind the blocking of Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Broderick Jones (59) in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
Current record: 8 in 2008 (Jake Long 1st, Ryan Clady 12th, Chris Williams 14th, Branden Albert 15th, Gosder Cherilus 17th, Jeff Otah 19th, Sam Baker 21st, Duane Brown 26th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Paris Johnson (Ohio State), Broderick Jones (Georgia), Peter Skoronski (Northwestern), Darnell Wright (Tennessee)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Anton Harrison (Oklahoma), Dawand Jones (Ohio State)
Eight is the most player ever drafted at a single position in the first round, overall. And yes, this record came in the same year as the running backs record. Other teams saw the 2007 record-setting Patriots passing attack and said to themselves ‘you know what we need? Running backs and linemen!’
Even if this year’s first round maxes out at the position, they’d still fall well short of the record. This this being a top-heavy tackle class though, players could go earlier than expected.
Interior offensive linemen
Dec 28, 2021; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers center John Michael Schmitz (60) against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Current record: 4 in 2013 (Jonathan Cooper 7th overall, Chance Warmack 10th overall, Kyle Long 20th overall, Travis Frederick 31st overall) and 2022 (Kenyon Green 15th, Zion Johnson 17th, Tyler Linderbaum 25th, Cole Strange 29th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: None
Possible 2023 1st round picks: O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida), John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota)
This record was just tied last year, but in an especially strong class. Given the way the game is played, this is another one we probably won’t see outright broken any time soon. Two guards in the top 10? A lot would have to happen for us to see a board like that again.
In fact, there may be no interior offensive linemen taken in the first round this year. That’s as much a product of it being a ‘down’ year for the class as it is how teams view the position. But by nature of being the top players at their respective positions, Torrence (a guard) and Schmitz (a center) both have a shot at sneaking into the second half of Round 1.
Defensive tackles
Nov 19, 2022; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Georgia Bulldogs defensive lineman Jalen Carter (88) celebrates during the second quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Current record: 6 in 2019 (Quinnen Williams 3rd, Ed Oliver 9th, Christian Wilkins 13th, Dexter Lawrence 17th, Jeffery Simmons 19th, Jerry Tillery 28th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Jalen Carter (Georgia), Calijah Kancey (Pittsburgh)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Bryan Bresee (Clemson), Mazi Smith (Michigan)
That 2019 defensive tackle class was stacked, and mostly panned out too. Nothing fluky about that board.
This is another record that should be safe this year. Even Kancey was a fringe first-round pick until he showed out at the Combine. It’s actually not a bad defensive tackle class overall, but the real value is on Days 2 and 3.
Edge rushers
Sep 24, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Will Anderson Jr. (31) sacks Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback AJ Swann (13) for a loss at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
Current record: 8 in 2017 (Solomon Thomas 3rd, Hasson Reddick 13th, Derek Barnett 14th, Jonathan Allen 17th, Charles Harris 22nd, Tak McKinley 26th, Taco Charlton 28th, T.J. Watt 30th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Will Anderson (Alabama), Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), Myles Murphy (Clemson), Nolan Smith (Georgia), Lukas Van Ness (Iowa)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Kansas State), Will McDonald IV (Iowa State), Adetomiwa Adebawore (Northwestern), Keion White (Georgia Tech)
‘Edge rusher’ can be a tough position to define between defensive ends and outside linebackers, so for the purpose of this exercise we went with how players were listed by the NFL leading up to their respective drafts. That resulted in the 2017 edge class tying the record for the most players at a single position to be taken in the first round of a draft – in a class with mixed results.
Although there are eight players total between the projected and possible picks, that record is probably safe this year. There might be room for one or two of those ‘possible’ players to make their way into the back end of the first round, but not all four. It will just be a matter of which two. Keeping that in mind though, it looks like there will be excellent edge options throughout Day 2 this year.
Linebackers
Sep 10, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks linebacker Drew Sanders (42) pursues South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler (7) during the second half at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas won 44-30. Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Current record: 5 in 2005 (DeMarcus Ware 11th, Shawne Merriman 13th, Thomas Davis 14th, Derrick Johnson 15th, David Pollack 17th) and 2009 (Aaron Curry 4th, Aaron Maybin 11th, Brian Orakpo 13th, Brian Cushing 15th, Clay Matthews 26th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: None
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Drew Sanders (Arkansas)
No, that 2009 linebacker class isn’t posted backwards. Just a reminder of what a shot in the dark the NFL Draft can be.
If this year’s linebacker class has any true standouts, it’s also going to look lopsided. Unlike some of the other ‘down’ classes that are top-heavy with no depth, or lack stars but have impact players further down the board, the overall linebacker availability in this class is thin. Only 18 linebackers are projected to get drafted at all, after 33 were selected last year.
Cornerbacks
Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez hauls in an interception as the No. 9 Oregon Ducks take on the No. 21 Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Ore. Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022. (Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard/USA Today Network)
Current record: 6 in 2020 (Jeff Okudah 3rd, C.J. Henderson 9th, A.J. Terrell 16th, Damon Arnette 19th, Noah Igbinoghene 30th, Jeff Gladney 31st)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Christian Gonzalez (Oregon), Devon Witherspoon (Illinois), Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State), Deonte Banks (Maryland)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State), Kelee Ringo (Georgia), Cam Smith (South Carolina), Clark Phillips III (Utah), D.J. Turner (Michigan)
Of the six members of that record-breaking 2020 cornerback class, four are no longer with their original teams, and Igbinoghene still is but was a healthy scratch for 17 games total over the last two years. A.J. Terrell has panned out as an All-Pro, but the rest of the group came up well short of expectations.
While there are only four first-round locks this year, more than four players at the position will go in the first. It’s just a matter of who and how many it will be. If the run on cornerbacks starts early and teams feel they have to act, this record could definitely be on the table.
Safeties
Sep 24, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Brian Branch (14) pursues Vanderbilt Commodores running back Ray Davis (2) during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Current record: 4 in 2007 (LaRon Landry 6th, Michael Griffin 19th, Reggie Nelson 21st, Brandon Meriweather 24th) and 2014 (Calvin Pryor 18th, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix 21st, Deone Bucannon 27th, Jimmie Ward 30th)
Projected 2023 1st round picks: Brian Branch (Alabama)
Possible 2023 1st round picks: None
Top to bottom, this isn’t a very strong class for safeties. That’s reflected by only one player expected to go not just in the first round, but potentially the top 50.
This is a bit of a sandwich year at the safety position. Last year three safeties went in the first round, and next year it projects to be a strong position again.
Specialists
Nov 19, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines place kicker Jake Moody (13) kicks a field goal in the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Stadium. Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Current record: 0
Projected 2023 1st round picks: None
Possible 2023 1st round picks: None
No kickers or punters have been selected in the first round in the 32-team era of the NFL Draft. Sebastian Janikowski is the last kicker to go in the first round, taken 17th overall by Al Davis and the then-Oakland Raiders in 2000. Russell Erxleben was technically the last punter drafted in the first round – the New Orleans Saints drafted him 11th overall in 1979, but did so as both a kicker and a punter (he ended up only attempted eight NFL field goals in six NFL seasons. The only pure punter drafted in the first round since the merger is Hall of Fame Raider Ray Guy, who went 23rd overall in 1973.
It would be the biggest surprise of the draft if the exclusive club of first-round specialists was added to this year. It’s a generally good year for both kickers (Jake Moody of Michigan, Chad Ryland of Maryland, and Christopher Dunn of North Carolina State highlight that position) and punters (Bryce Baringer of Michigan State, Adam Korsak of Rutgers, and Michael Turk of Oklahoma) but don’t expect to hear their names called until Day 3 at the earliest.
