On Sunday night, the New England Patriots will play their sixth Christmas Eve-day game, and their first ever game on Christmas Eve night. They’ll be in Colorado, taking on the Denver Broncos for their Week 16 matchup.
The Patriots are 4-2 all time on Dec. 24. That includes a 22-18 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette Stadium last year. Prior to that they’d won four in a row in 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2017. This is the first time the Patriots will play on Christmas Eve without Tom Brady since their first such game in 1989.
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—Week 16 Patriots Mailbag
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—Former Tom Brady teammate joins Patriots practice squad
As for this year’s matchup, it will be with a Broncos team the Patriots haven’t played since 2000. This is the first time the two franchises have gone the maximum of three years without playing each other since the early 1990s. Their last meeting was the COVID year in 2020, when the Broncos held on for a narrow 18-12 win at Gillette Stadium.
2020 was a transitionary season for both teams, who have undergone multiple big changes since. We’ll start with one of those changes as we get into this week’s What To Watch For…
Bill Belichick vs. Russell Wilson
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 16: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos throws the ball during the third quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on December 16, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
This will be the first time the Patriots face the Broncos since Denver acquired quarterback Russell Wilson in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks prior to the 2022 season. However, it’s hardly the first time Russell Wilson has seen a Bill Belichick defense.
While in Seattle Wilson faced the Patriots three times. He went 3-1 with the lone loss coming in the biggest game – Super Bowl XLIX.
Even including that loss Wilson has generally been successful against Belichick’s defenses. In those four games he’s completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 1,176 yards with 13 touchdowns (with multiple touchdowns in all four games) and just two picks. Wilson’s last matchup against the Patriots was one of his best performances. In Week 2 of the 2020 season he out-dueled Cam Newton, completing 75 percent of his 28 pass attempts for 288 yards with five touchdowns and a pick.
After a down 2022 season under head coach Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson looks much more like himself this year with Sean Payton – whose offenses have also historically given Belichick’s defenses issues (they’ve split their four head-to-head matchups 2-2). Wilson’s completion percentage this season is up six points from last year (66.3 from 60.5) and he’s already more than eclipsed last year’s touchdown total (24 from 16) while throwing less interceptions (eight this year so far, he had 11 total last year).
Last week, the Patriots faced an improve quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, and had mixed success against him. Don’t be surprised to see some of last week’s defensive game plan carry over this week.
“Wilson’s definitely a problem,” Belichick said on Wednesday. “Running, throwing, extended plays, similar to what we talked about last week with Mahomes, but runs more, runs more than probably any quarterback in the league other than [Lamar] Jackson.”
Wilson has been more liable to take off this year. His 76 carries are already his most in a season since 2020, and the second-most since 2017. He’s run for 321 yards and three touchdowns.
Matching up with Courtland Sutton
DENVER, COLORADO – NOVEMBER 19: Wide receiver Courtland Sutton #14 of the Denver Broncos catches a 15-yard touchdown
reception over Mekhi Blackmon #5 and Josh Metellus #44 of the Minnesota Vikings during the fourth quarter of the NFL game at Empower Field At Mile High on November 19, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated the Vikings 21-20. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)In terms of who Wilson is throwing the ball to, the biggest matchup nightmare for the Patriots in this game will be wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Sutton is the Broncos’ leading receiver this year, with 58 catches for 770 yards and 10 touchdowns through 14 games.
At 6-foot-4, 216 pounds Sutton is a big-body, jump-ball wide receiver. That’s not great news for a Patriots’ team whose two starting cornerbacks for this game project as 5-foot-10 Jonathan Jones and 5-foot-9 Myles Bryant.
6-foot-1 Alex Austin could factor in here too, especially since Jones matches up better with Broncos slot receiver Jerry Jeudy. Still, having Austin cover Sutton would be a big ask for a rookie who just played in his fifth ever NFL game (and made his first start) last week.
Which Denver defense will show up?
Oct 8, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos Sean Peyton talks to defensive coordinator Vance Joseph following a first down reception by the New York Jets in the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Before we get into specifics, a quick note on the Denver defense. It’s hard to pin this group down, with their lack of consistency this year.
Overall the Broncos rank 30th in defensive scoring this year, allowing 25.1 points per game. That number doesn’t look great, but it’s skewed. Between an early-season 70-point performance against the Dolphins and a 42-point performance against the Lions last week, 31.9 percent of their points allowed have been surrendered in just two of 14 games.
When Denver’s defense is off, it’s off. Yet when the unit is on, it’s on. Despite its overall defensive ranking the Broncos have held opponents to 20 points or less in half of their games this year. Those seven such games are tied for the 12th most by any team in the NFL this year.
Handling the blitz
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 17: Bailey Zappe #4 of the New England Patriots fumbles the ball after being hit by Drue Tranquill #23 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at Gillette Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Against the Chiefs last week, the Patriots’ offense struggled against the blitz. On 15 blitz calls the Chiefs got pressure 10 times, including two sacks.
Things won’t get much easier in that regard this week. The Broncos, under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, are one of the most blitz-happy teams in the league. They’ve sent extra rushers on 33.1 percent of plays this year, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. It’s a multi-faceted pass rush attack too, with threats coming from multiple spots rather than being designed around one dominant pass rusher. Nik Bonitto leads the team with seven sacks this year, although Zach Allen has been credited with the most pressures, with 23.
What will make things even tougher is the lack of continuity on the offensive line. The team will definitively have a new starting left guard after Cole Strange was placed on IR earlier this week. Left tackle is also a question – Trent Brown was limited all week after not playing last week, and Conor McDermott missed the entire week with a concussion making it highly unlikely he’s active.
The past few weeks have featured some early signs of Bailey Zappe starting to get sped up. Keeping him clean this week would go a long way in preventing those issues from compounding down the stretch.
Establishing the run
Dec 7, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) runs on his way to scoring on a touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
One way to throw off the tempo of the Broncos’ pass rush is to establish the run. For the Patriots the last few weeks though, that’s easier said than done.
After a slow start on the ground, the Patriots had the run game going in November. Four of their five 100-plus yard ground games as a team this year happened consecutively from Weeks 9 to 13 (with the bye in the middle). During that stretch they averaged 4.8 yards per carry, which was the fifth-highest rate in the NFL during that span.
The last two weeks though, that success hasn’t been there. Between the Steelers and Chiefs games the Patriots averaged just 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks 26th in the NFL during that time.
Why the change? Simply put, teams are now willing to load up along the defensive front in an effort to take the run away entirely, and dare the Patriots to win throwing the football.
“We’ve had some pretty heavy boxes last week in Kansas City. We’ve got to be ready for that again,” Bill Belichick said this week. “There are several ways to deal with that, but it makes it a little more challenging. You need more production throwing the ball. Which when we have that, it tends to loosen things up a little bit.”
Being able to throw the ball would help, but even if they can’t the Patriots should still be able to find some success on the ground. Denver is allowing 5.2 yards per carry this season, which is the worst number in the league.
