The New England Patriots 2024 schedule is out, and it’s … difficult.
Heading into 2024, the Pats have the 10th-hardest schedule in the NFL based on their opponents’ winning percentage last season. However, Sharp Football Analysis bases strength of schedule on projected win totals for bettors and consider that metric to be more reliable, and they’ve got the Patriots second-hardest.
Regardless of their opponents, the Patriots themselves are in a multi-year rebuild. So, as long as they’re still in the process of laying the bricks of the future, particularly on offense, they’re going to have a tough time hanging around with most of their opponents and their superior quarterbacks/offensive units.
Still, the Pats can’t possibly get worse quarterback play than they got in 2023, so Jacoby Brissett deserves confidence to be a technical upgrade over what Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe gave them. And in an ideal world, Drake Maye takes over at some point in his rookie season and delivers the best quarterback play since the departure of Tom Brady.
As for the coaching, it’s fair to assume that Bill Belichick to Jerod Mayo would be a 1-for-1 downgrade. But now that the staff is all on the same page, and that Mayo comes in with a chance to connect better with younger players than Belichick could, they could prove to be greater than the sum of their parts and a cleaner overall operation than the end of the Belichick era.
For these reasons, I’m projecting the Patriots as a 6-win team in 2024. Slight improvements in the quarterbacking and coaching mean a slight improvement in the record. Still a bottom-10 team, but forward progress. They have an over/under of 5.5 wins at BetMGM, so six seems about right for the optimists.
MORE: The Patriots 2024 schedule is here
Unfortunately, you have to dig a little deep to find even six wins on the Patriots 2024 schedule, but the possibilities are there. They have plenty of games that seem like no-chance situations, like Week 4 at the San Francisco 49ers and Week 16 at the Buffalo Bills, and plenty of other opponents that are simply better on paper and will present big challenges.
But if you need hope … well maybe six wins isn’t going to inspire much hope. But if you’re hoping for a step in the right direction from a disastrous 2023 season, this is the list for you. Here are the six most winnable games on the Patriots 2024 schedule, ranked…
6. Week 18 vs Bills
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills scores a touchdown during the third quarter of a game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
HOLD ON! Hear me out. This is not to say the Patriots are anywhere near as good as the Bills, not even close. Even if the Patriots surprise some people and Maye is the real deal, they still have work to do to get back on the Bills’ level.
But this is going to be Week 18 at home, with the Bills possibly having wrapped up their playoff seeding and resting players at this point. This should be ripe for a pity win.
5. Week 7 @ Jaguars (in London)
Jan 2, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) is sacked by New England Patriots defensive end Christian Barmore (90) in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
The Jaguars are basically the NFL’s London team, and it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing ever if they actually relocated there some day, considering how much they’ve been shoved down British people’s gullets. But they’re also only 6-5 all-time in London, making this particular game a wild card for both teams. If the Patriots defense can slow down Trevor Lawrence and/or force turnovers, they’ll give the Pats a chance to pull off the upset.
4. Week 10 @ Bears
LAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS – MAY 10: Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears throws a pass during Chicago Bears Rookie Minicamp at Halas Hall on May 10, 2024 in Lake Forest, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams is wildly talented, but any NFL fan with a clue knows that the quarterback position is about a lot more than pure physical talent. Can Williams put it all together in his very first season? This could be a game that the Patriots defense can keep close, if not make a living hell for the green rookie, especially if it’s a cold weather contest.
3. Week 9 @ Titans
HOUSTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 31: Will Levis #8 of the Tennessee Titans warms up prior to a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
Titans quarterback Will Levis is nothing special. Surely not unbeatable for the Patriots defense. This is another rebuilding team with a first-time head coach, which should make this a very evenly matched contest. And at this point in the season, Maye might be the starter. Possibly even making his debut.
2. Week 15 @ Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray scrambles away from New England Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux during a game at State Farm Stadium. (Michael Chow-USA TODAY Sports)
It’s the Cardinals. Another bottom-dwelling team, whose biggest off-season addition was a rookie wide receiver (a very talented one, but still). If Maye is starting and playing well by this point in the season, the line may shift toward the Patriots as the favorite. Arguably the most winnable game on the schedule. However, this year’s title goes to…
1. Week 13 vs Colts
Nov 12, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) is brought down by New England Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux (92) in the first quarter during an International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
A repeat! The Colts were the Patriots’ most winnable game last year, too. And the Pats had a real chance to beat them in that game in Frankfurt, Germany, but lost because of Mac Jones throwing one of the worst interceptions these eyes have ever witnessed.
The Colts have a big question mark at quarterback, with 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson returning off a season-ending injury. The Patriots are at home and historically play at least competitively against them. So, consider this one the closest thing to a win you can pencil in.
Realistically, nothing can be penciled in for the Patriots, one of the league’s great mysteries as to just how good or bad they’re going to be. But if they win more than six games, that’ll be a big step forward.
Matt Dolloff is a writer and digital content producer for 98.5 The Sports Hub. Read all of his articles here.
