The TCU Horned Frogs were the story of college football in 2022, making an improbable Cinderella run to the National Championship. Now the Frogs are getting plenty of attention in the pre-draft process as well – including from the Patriots.
TCU hosted its pro day on Thursday. Among those in attendance were Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and directory of player personnel Matt Groh. Belichick, of course, also serves as the team’s general manager and has the final say on all roster decisions. As director of player personnel, Groh is essentially Belichick’s No. 2 in that regard. Given his background with the scouting process (he was an area scout, national scout, and then director of college scouting before moving into his current job last season), he’s another key voice in the Patriots’ draft process.
WR Quentin Johnston
Dec 3, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) in action during the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Kansas State Wildcats at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
As mentioned above, Johnston is the top prospect from TCU in this class, and some have him as the top receiver on the board. He’s certainly stylistically different from the other top three receivers. He’s much bigger at 6-foot-3, 208 pounds and plays almost exclusively on the boundary. He is a downfield threat, but despite his size he’s more of a separator than 50/50 ball player.
Johnston’s route tree is heavy on vertical routes, which does make him a fit in the right system. However, his lack of experience running routes underneath trends against what the Patriots typically look for at the position. There are also questions about his speed. Johnston didn’t run a 40 at the Combine, then
Got texts from three different scouts who were at TCU pro-day and all had projected first round WR Quentin Johnston in 4.51-4.54 range on his two 40-yd runs.
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) March 30, 2023?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly ran it in between 4.51 and 4.54 seconds at the pro day.
Johnston did not run at Combine.G Steve Avila
Dec 31, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; TCU Horned Frogs offensive lineman Steve Avila (79) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Taking a guard in the second round doesn’t seem like a logical choice for the Patriots, having just taken Cole Strange in the first round and still having Michael Onwenu under contract for a year. But Avila was one of TCU’s best players, so he makes this list.
Avila was a three-year starter for the Frogs. He spent most of his time playing left guard and center, but also logged snaps at both right guard at right tackle. At 6-foot-3, 332 pounds he’s built more like a right guard, but stands out as a pass blocker which increases his positional flexibility.
CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson
FORT WORTH, TX – NOVEMBER 26: Cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson #1 of the TCU Horned Frogs reacts after sacking quarterback Hunter Dekkers #12 of the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Hodges-Tomlinson, who is the nephew of NFL Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson, is one of the more interesting players in this draft – especially for the Patriots. He played 78 percent of his snaps on the boundary this year, where quarterbacks completed 28 of their 81 pass attempts (34.6 percent) resulting in 10 pass breakups, three interceptions, and a 42.5 passer rating.
For those efforts, Hodges-Tomlinson was given the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s best defensive back. he then went to the Combine and tested well, with a 4.41 second 40-yard dash and 39-inch vertical.
So why is he a projected late Day 2 pick? At 5-foot-8, 178 pounds with 29-inch arms, size is a serious question for Hodges-Tomlinson if he’s going to play on the boundary. He’ll likely play in the slot at the next level, but that will be a positional adjustment. For a team in the Patriots who has talent at corner but is lacking size, he doesn’t bring what they need at his position, even though he is very talented.
RB Kendre Miller
WACO, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 19: Running back Kendre Miller #33 of the TCU Horned Frogs carries the ball against safety Devin Lemear #20 of the Baylor Bears and safety Christian Morgan #4 of the Baylor Bears in the second quarter at McLane Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Waco, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
If the Patriots are going to take a running back in this draft, Miller is a stylistic fit. He’s projected to go early on Day 3. The Patriots reportedly
Despite #TCU star RB Kendre Miller not working out at Pro Day today as he recovers from an MCL injury suffered in the playoff win, Miller is well ahead of schedule and had meetings yesterday with the #Dolphins, #Jaguars and #Patriots and today with the #AZCardinals and #Texans. pic.twitter.com/GQVm3x1zMH
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 30, 2023?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">met with Miller at some point while in Fort Worth.Miller is a powerful downhill runner at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds, but can elude defenders in the open field. While he wasn’t used much in a passing downs role, he did look comfortable in the chances he was given. On tape, his game somewhat resembles Rhamondre Stevenson’s from when he was coming out of Oklahoma in 2021.
Miller is recovering from an MCL injury he suffered during the college football players, so he hasn’t done any pre-draft testing. However, he is expected to be ready to go for the start of next season.
OLB Dylan Horton
Dec 31, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; TCU Horned Frogs defensive lineman Dylan Horton (98) knocks the football away from Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) in the first half of the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Horton had a breakout year for the Horned Frogs, with 15 tackles for a loss, 10.5 sacks, and four pass breakups in 15 games. He was a menace in the passing game coming off the edge at 6-foot-4, 257 pounds. He wins with a quick first step, good flexibility, and coordinated rush moves.
At the NFL level, Horton is probably a pure pass rusher who won’t be on the field in running situations. The Patriots tend to find roles for such players, and with Josh Uche in a contract year could be looking for a player like Horton in this year’s draft. He’s expected to go in the middle rounds of Day 3.
LB/S Dee Winters
Jan 9, 2023; Inglewood, CA, USA; TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Dee Winters (13) against the Georgia Bulldogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Winters played mostly as an off-ball linebacker for TCU, but the Patriots may see him as a box safety. In college he played a coverage-heavy role, with coverage assignments on 425 of his 532 defensive snaps last year. While he mostly lined up in the box, he recorded 126 snaps as a slot corner.
Wherever Winters lines up, he always seems to be near the ball at the end of the play. For instance, even with all those coverage assignments he managed to record 7.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss in 15 games.
At 5-foot-11, 227 pounds Winters can be used as an edge rusher, on- and off-ball linebacker, and box safety. That kind of versatility would play well in the Patriots’ defense. He’s projected to go on Day 3.
QB Max Duggan
ARLINGTON, TX – DECEMBER 3: Max Duggan #15 of the TCU Horned Frogs looks to throw against the Kansas State Wildcats in the first half of the Big 12 Football Championship at AT&T Stadium on December 3, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
For those hoping the Patriots will add an athletic quarterback in this draft, Duggan is a player to know late on Day 3. He came out of nowhere in 2022, winning the starting job early in the season and then leading the Horned Frogs to the National Championship. In 15 games, he completed 63.7 percent of his 419 pass attempts for 3,698 yards with 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions. On the ground he added another 423 yards and nine scores. That performance landed him a spot as a Heisman finalst. Duggan tested well at the Combine, running a 4.52 40 at 6-foot-1, 207.
As a pro, the biggest questions for Duggan are his size as well as his accuracy as a passer. TCU ran a vertical offense, and he wasn’t asked to hit short, timing routes as much as he will be in the NFL. Still teams will like his ability to extend plays and create with is legs, as well as his leadership and toughness. There’s certainly enough in his evaluation to warrant a draft selection, but he’ll need to work on certain elements of his game before he’s ready for NFL action.
WR Derius Davis
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 09: Derius Davis #11 of the TCU Horned Frogs runs after a catch in the third quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship game at SoFi Stadium on January 09, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Davis was recruited to TCU as a cornerback, but made the switch to slot receiver once on campus. He’s quick, shifty, and hard to tackle with pull-away speed he put on display with a4.36 40 at the Combine. TCU also used him on a number of scheme touch plays. He also returned kicks and punts last year, returning two punts for touchdowns.
At 5-foot-8, 165 pounds there are concerns about his ability to handle physical coverage and the general beating that comes with being a slot receiver in the NFL. As a potential gadget player, he’s expected to go on Day 3.
RB Emari Demercado
FORT WORTH, TX – OCTOBER 01: Running back Emari Demercado #3 of the TCU Horned Frogs rushes up the field in the first half of TCU’s home game against Oklahoma at Amon G. Carter Stadium on October 1, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Emil Lippe/Getty Images)
Demercado was TCU’s spell back behind Kendre Miller. He’s a ferocious runner who has also shown an ability to contribute in the passing game. 2022 was his first season in a regular role – he had 121 carries for 681 yards and six touchdowns, with 13 catches for 65 yards and a score. He’s projected to go late on Day 3.
