The New England Patriots had a surprising lead on the Buffalo Bills early on Sunday, but key coaching decisions flipped the game in the other direction late.
Coming into the season, the big-picture goal for the New England Patriots was to be better at the end of the year than the beginning. Three tough games at the end of the year – two against the Buffalo Bills sandwiching one against the Los Angeles Chargers, figured to be a good barometer for that sort of growth. Could the Patriots put up a fight against playoff-caliber AFC teams?
On Sunday, the Patriots played the first of those three games in Buffalo against the Bills. On one hand, they certainly were a pain for the Bills, who won 24-21 despite being 14.5 point favorites coming in.
However, even in the close game many of the key areas the team has needed to improve all year – game management, penalties, red zone efficiency, turnovers, and the operational aspect from the coaching staff on down – were once again weak points that ultimately cost the them what could have been a monumental upset.
The Patriots have had some very brief hot starts this year – at times lasting less than a drive – but this one was sustained for longer. New England got up 14-0 early in the second quarter, and led 14-7 at the half. It wasn’t really until the second half that the wheels fell off, as Buffalo ripped off 24 unanswered points to regain control of the game.
With that early 14-0 lead, there were certainly some positives for the Patriots in this one. We’ll get to those, but first let’s look at the key coaching decisions that left the Patriots on the wrong side of this one as we begin this week’s takeaways.
Key coaching decisions
Dec 22, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo looks to the scoreboard in the fourth quarter game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
There were four moments in this game where the Patriots’ coaching staff was tasked with key decisions. Those moments ended up flipping the game. Here’s a look at all four, in the order they occurred.
Kendrick Bourne catch & punt: After the Bills scored their first touchdown of the game, they had an illegal formation penalty on the ensuing kickoff. Instead of having the Bills’ rekick the Patriots took the ball at their own 27 yard line – three yards short of the touchback line.
After settling for the field position, the Patriots had back-to-back incomplete passes. On third down Drake Maye hit Kendrick Bourne on a comeback, with Bourne jumping and catching the pass in mid-air as he was pushed back by a defender. Bourne was ruled a full yard short but his forward progress looked to be much closer or even at the first-down marker.
That seemed like an opportunity for the Patriots to use a challenge. Spot challenges are tough, but it’s less risky putting a first half timeout on the line. A closer spot – even if it wasn’t a first down – could have helped the Patriots go for it on 4th from their own 36 yard line (or they could have gotten the first down outright).
Instead, the Patriots chose to punt. It wasn’t their most conservative punt of the day – we’ll get to that – but the decision stood out. The Patriots also were called for a penalty on the coverage, setting Buffalo up at the New England 32. While the Bills didn’t score off of this sequence, the momentum did start to flip.
Fake punt and near delay: Our next sequence comes on the Patriots’ next offensive drive. Facing a 3rd & 1 from their own 23, the Patriots called a shotgun handoff for Antonio Gibson that got blown up in the backfield. This time facing a fourth and short the Patriots got aggressive – they called a fake punt, with rookie safety Dell Pettus running the ball up the middle for a first down. It was a well-timed call and well-executed play that seemed to get the Patriots back on track.
That momentum didn’t last though. There was an issue getting the punt team off and the offense back on the field. As a result, the Patriots had to burn a timeout. That timeout allowed the Bills to collect themselves, and the Patriots gained nine total yards in the next three plays before punting for real.
This is the second week in a row the Patriots have had to burn a timeout following a big momentum play. The same thing happened after a long run by Gibson last week – and was followed by the offense getting stuffed on back-to-back 3rd & 1 and 4th & 1 plays.
Delay of game and punt: Let’s fast forward to early in the fourth quarter. After the Bills scored off a Patriots fumble (more on that later) to go up 24-14, the Patriots got the ball black and started moving down the field. They reached the 50 and had a 3rd & 1, but couldn’t get a play in on time (again) and were called for a delay.
After an incomplete pass on the ensuing 3rd & 5, the Patriots were looking at a 4th & 5 from their 46 yard line with 8:33 to play, down two scores. Rather than trying to extend the drive the Patriots punted the ball back to Buffalo. That punt allowed Buffalo to drain four minutes off the clock, and while it didn’t completely wipe out the Patriots’ chances for a comeback put them into scramble mode. Of all of the conservative calls we’ve seen from this coaching staff this year, that one may have been the most conservative when factoring in the time and score.
“To me, it’s a field-position thing,” Mayo said of the punt after the game. “For me, it’s all about – our timeouts, especially at that point in time, were definitely important. When you have three timeouts at the end of the game, you have a chance to get the ball back, and we didn’t do it.”
Red zone play calling: On the Patriots’ final drive of the game, they got the ball inside Buffalo’s five-yard line with 2:26 to go, down 24-14. However, their red zone issues popped back up as it took them nine plays (including defensive penalties) to finally reach the end zone – draining 73 seconds off the clock in the process. While they eventually reached the end zone with Maye hitting Hunter Henry for the score, that was a lot of time to go four yards in a game that they needed every second.
Multiple times, the Bills sent all-out blitzes at Maye, and the Patriots were not in play calls set up to respond to those looks. Eventually they worked in a rollout for the touchdown, but it took a few plays to make that adjustment.
Big-picture coaching questions
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) talks to his offensive line in the huddle during second half action at Highmark Stadium where the Buffalo Bills hosted the New England Patriots in Orchard Park on Dec. 22, 2024. (Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
On top of those specific situations, there were a few overarching coaching issues in this game. We’ll start with the offense.
Slow play calling: As mentioned above, at multiple key points in the game the Patriots were slow to get the play in from the sideline and had to either burn timeouts or take delay of game penalties. There were a handful of other instances where the team was breaking the huddle late and had to rush to the line.
For a coaching staff that has struggled operationally at times this year, that’s not a great sign. It is harder getting play calls in quickly on the road in an environment like the one in Buffalo, but the difficulties were clearly on display on Sunday.
Stopping the run: This was the first game in a while where it felt like the defensive coaching staff had a better performance overall than the offensive coaching staff, but there still were issues. In particular, the Patriots still are having trouble stopping the run.
Now, Buffalo made its own share of questionable decisions, perhaps the biggest being leaning on the pass game late into this one, despite the Patriots’ struggling run defense. Buffalo ended up running the ball 28 times, and did so at 6.1 yards per carry. The Patriots got bit by a big run early on as well, with James Cook’s 46-yard touchdown in the second quarter helping flip the tone.
“Look, again, the big run hurt us, and we’ve just got to do a better job tackling,” head coach Jerod Mayo said after the game. Mayo made a similar remark after allowing a 53-yard run last week. Just like last week though, even taking that run out the Patriots’ opponent had a solid day on the ground – Buffalo ran for 4.7 yards per carry when not including that run by Cook.
Other developments from the coaching staff
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 22: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills scrambles against the New England Patriots during the third quarter at Highmark Stadium on December 22, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
There were a few other developments from the coaching staff, more on the positive side of things. There was one on offense and one on defense.
Designed QB runs: For the first time this season, we saw designed quarterback runs for Drake Maye. That included a read option to start things off, as well as an outright designed run and a quarterback sneak. None hit for major plays, but it was a notable new showing from offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt after he faced criticism this week for not running Maye.
“ I think it’s a chance for us to pick up first downs, get a big one at the end there around the edge. Other than that, I think there’s times for it, but at the same time, I think me making plays, I think I’ll scramble enough and make some plays,” Maye said of the designed runs after the game. “I’m a big, 6-foot-5 dude that can pick up a yard or beat somebody with some speed, and I think people underestimate me a little bit. So, I think it helps us offensively to move the chains. At this point, we need some help, whether it’s some short yardage or some different areas down in the red zone for me to go make a play.”
A better plan against Josh Allen: Bills quarterback Josh Allen came into this game red hot, with recent performances putting him at the forefront of the MVP conversation. That, combined with the fact that Allen has been especially dominant against the Patriots in recent years, seemed to be setting him up for a big day.
Instead, he had a pedestrian game. Allen completed 16 of his 29 pass attempts with one touchdown and one interception, and didn’t factor in much with his legs. The Patriots did a good job of corralling him and making him uncomfortable in the pocket, rather than letting him create out of structure.
While Allen certainly wasn’t bad, he did come up short of the expectations of him for this game. It was the Patriots’ best defensive performance against him since the wind game in 2021.
Drake Maye’s performance
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 22: Drake Maye #10 of the New England Patriots throws a pass against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter at Highmark Stadium on December 22, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
While Josh Allen didn’t quite look like himself, Drake Maye showed flashes of why he was receiving comparisons to Allen throughout the week leading up to the game. He started the game with a beautiful 28-yard touchdown pass to Kayshon Boutte, and on the next drive used a spin move and fought through contact on a scramble to pick up a first down on third and long.
At the same time, Maye was a bit more erratic in this game than he’d been the last few weeks. He threw an interception in the red zone where he stared down and underthrew Austin Hooper, and dropped a snap in the red zone late that nearly proved costly.
Overall Maye finished completing 22 of his 36 pass attempts for 261 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. He also ran for 30 yards on six carries. It wasn’t a perfect game, but seeing Maye go into an environment like Buffalo and handle it the way he did is encouraging for the long-term.
Key players struggling
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 22: Rhamondre Stevenson #38 of the New England Patriots runs the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the first quarter at Highmark Stadium on December 22, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
Part of what made Maye’s performance encouraging is he did it despite key players struggling in this one. In particular on offense, running back Rhamondre Stevenson and right tackle Demontrey Jacobs were not good in this game.
Those two combined for a major negative play that put the Bills up two scores early in the fourth quarter. On what should have been a routine swing pass, Jacobs tried to cut block his assignment rather than blocking head on, and got beat clean with no hesitation. That left a free rusher coming at Stevenson, who seemed to sense the incoming contact and had the ball hit off both his hands. Because the ball was thrown backwards, it was a live ball rolling towards the end zone, and recovered by the Bills for a score.
That wasn’t the only time Stevenson wasn’t able to secure the football. Shortly after the Bills tied the game, Stevenson had the ball punched out, which gave Buffalo a short field that resulted in a go-ahead field goal.
That was Stevenson’s league-leading seventh fumble of the year. Despite that the coaching staff put him back in the game (the swing pass drop actually came after the fumble), although it will be interesting to see if his role changes next week. Stevenson already had his playing time dip at one point earlier this year after repeated fumbles. However, backup Antonio Gibson fumbled in this game as well (although the Patriots recovered that one).
Key players struggled on defense for the Patriots in this one too. It was another game of multiple missed tackles for safety Kyle Dugger, including one on the James Cook 46-yard touchdown run. Dugger continues to not look like himself, and the Patriots will need a big bounce back from him next season.
Fellow safety Marte Mapu also found himself with a negative on what should have been a positive play. Midway through the second quarter Josh Allen threw an arm punt to the end zone on a 3rd & long, which Mapu picked off. However, instead of kneeling the ball for the touchback he started to run out, only to be tackled at the one yard line. The Patriots evaded total disaster picking up a few first downs, but did end up punting from the poor field position.
Who played well?
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 22: Jonathan Jones #31 of the New England Patriots punches the ball against Khalil Shakir #10 of the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium on December 22, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
On the other hand, there were Patriots whose play stood out in a positive way in this one. Sticking on the defensive side of the ball, cornerback Jonathan Jones had arguably his best game of the year. He had a pass breakup and also a textbook forced fumble.
This was also another strong game for linebacker Christian Elliss, who continued to string together solid performances. He’s been the team’s best tackler in recent weeks, especially in space, and was reliable again on Sunday. He also had a pass breakup.
