Instinctively, the mere mention of Juan Soto and the Red Sox is the perfect internet-age story: partially-rooted in truth, click-baited for the oblivious, salted for the gullible. If it’s on the internet, it must be real. So go with it.
So, if you want to have fun with it, consider the possibilities. Soto would probably be a better investment than Rafael Devers because he’s a more complete player and better hitter. And he’s younger. Or maybe the Sox want both Devers and Soto in the lineup, and they’re preparing to trade Roman Anthony in some sort of blockbuster for pitching. But you get the idea: if the Red Sox are serious about Soto, the story would have ripple effects akin to those when the Sox pursued Alex Rodriguez, whose arrival in Boston would have triggered the departures of Manny Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra while also bringing Magglio Ordonez to town.
Incredibly, that almost happened.
This almost certainly won’t.
Now the part that isn’t getting enough attention: in the real world, signing Soto would be stupid.
Wait … what? Yes, it would be stupid. And you know why? Because if we’re going to operate in reality – I know, buzzkill – the Red Sox currently have more young, left-handed-hitting than just about anyone. In fact, they’re bursting with it. Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Devers, Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel, among others. At the moment, all of those players combined might cost less than Soto. Pursuing Soto would be the equivalent of fattening up on bonbons while having a freezer free of protein. It just doesn’t make sense.
In the words of Mr. Miyagi … balance, Daniel-san.
Here’s what we know: the Red Sox need pitching. And not the kind you can buy in wholesale stores. They need the shiny, high-end, eye-popping kind found, perhaps, on the Champs-Elysées. (We’ll allow for Newbury Street.) The question, always, has been how the Red Sox intend to get it, particularly at a time when they seem averse to megadeals, long-term pitching investments of any kind, and at least some of the obsessive, competitive behavior that defined them in the early part of this millennium.
Now, could the Sox be changing their ways? Sure. They’ve always had the capacity. The question is whether they still have the desire.
That said, would we all like to see them sign Soto? Of course. If nothing else, it would be a sign that the Sox are serious again – or at least a sign that the Sox are trying to appear serious. And we all know the latter is far more likely. The Sox are indeed scheduled to meet with Soto this week according to multiple reports, and that in and of itself is not a bad thing. Years ago, just after acquiring Pedro Martinez in the trade that brought him to Boston, then-general manager Dan Duquette uttered these famous words: the Red Sox are back in business. If the link to Soto in 2024 proves to be only a repeat of that phrase, well, that alone would make it worthwhile.
After all, it’s been a while.
And the Red Sox still have a lot of work to do, which brings us to …
Roki Sasaki
MIAMI, FLORIDA – MARCH 20: Roki Sasaki #14 of Team Japan pitches in the first inning against Team Mexico during the World Baseball Classic Semifinals at loanDepot park on March 20, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
In 2006, when the Red Sox signed Daisuke Matsuzaka, here’s how they got him: they blew everyone out of the water with their financial might. Further, thanks to marketing power of Pedro Martinez and the team’s World Series win in 2004, the Red Sox were a lure. Matsuzaka wanted the Red Sox as much as he wanted them. I distinctly remember the Red Sox proudly strutting their stuff after news leaked that their winning bid for Matsuzaka’s rights exceeded $50 million, dwarfing that of every other team by roughly 30 percent.Back then, they took pride in flexing their might.The 6-foot-2, 23-year-old Sasaki isn’t available through the same bidding process and can sign only a minor-league contract, which means all 30 teams in baseball quite literally have an equal chance to sign him. According to some odds, the Red Sox rank as low as 15th on that list, which puts them right in the middle. If Sasaki ends up here, it would be an upset. If he doesn’t, we must further look at the way the Red Sox have run their operation in the last 5-6 years, during which the profile, reputation and identity of the franchise have taken a hit.In 2006-07, the Red Sox were hot. Not they’re not. And it someone like Sasaki has no interest in the Red Sox, it’s because the Red Sox have let themselves get fat and out of shape.Now, is Sasaki all that he’s cracked up to be? It’s hard to know. He throws 100 mph. He has a split that drops like an anchor. He also has had some injury issues and has seen his velocity drop in each of the last 2-3 years, which is especially alarming for someone his age. Does that mean the Sox should willingly walk away? Hell no. Sasaki is too cheap and has way too much promise to ignore. Whoever signs him will be committing somewhere in the range of $10 million in total salary for the first four years of his career – that’s roughly what Shohei Ohtani got from the Los Angeles Angels – which makes him a no-brainer for all 30 teams.The real question: why, then, would Sasaki choose the Red Sox?And the (Te)Oscar goes to …
Meanwhile, on the inside …
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 22: Triston Casas #36 of the Boston Red Sox flips his bat a he watches his three-run home run against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning of game one of a doubleheader at Fenway Park on September 22, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
For the last few years, the Red Sox have been privately telling people that they’ve been “building,” which is fine. But always, the question has been this: to what end? Last spring, the Sox signed Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela to multiyear contracts, which can’t hurt. But neither Bello nor Rafaela has yet to take the kind of developmental steps to make one think they are cornerstones, though each certainly still has promise.Meanwhile, Tanner Houck, Triston Casas and Jarren Duran all look like better and more important players. And they are unsigned. In the cases of Duran and Houck, both are now in their peak years, which makes a multiyear deal both more expensive and riskier. In the case of Casas, as Chris Cotillo of Mass Live recently outlined, the two sides never appear to have been close. That gap may also be a reason Casas’ name has been present in trade rumors.Here’s the point: the Red Sox’ ideal model is to draft and develop talent, then sign those players to long-term deals earlier rather than later. But what happens if the Sox won’t (or can’t) sign those players? Can they keep drafting well? Is Casas unsigned because the Sox are low-balling him? Are Duran and Houck unsigned because they were late developing and no longer fit the value chart? Bello and Rafaela both took very team-friendly deals. If the Red Sox really want other players to do that, they can’t remain a mediocre organization that goes .500 over a six-year span.Simply put, they need to give their players and their fans something more.
