ARLINGTON, TX – APRIL 26: A video board displays the text “ON THE CLOCK” for the New England Patriots during the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft at AT&T Stadium on April 26, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
As the 2024 NFL Draft process begins, the New England Patriots sit in an interesting place. Needing help at all three premium offensive positions – quarterback, wide receiver, and left tackle – they have the third overall pick with elite talent at all three spots sitting on the board.
That draft positioning has some wondering, could the Patriots trade down from the third pick in order to add assets, and potentially address two of those needs in the first round? It’s a fair question, but for those penciling in taking a first-round quarterback as a part of those plans, history tells us that would be a very unique ask.
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Simply put, NFL teams don’t trade down for quarterback. To say such a move is rare is an understatement. Such a move in the top 10? Unheard of.
The NFL changed the way rookie contracts are negotiated (or, not negotiated) with the rookie wage scale in 2011. We can use that window as an example of the most modern draft era.
In that time, there have been 39 quarterbacks taken in the first round. 23 were drafted with the team’s originally assigned draft slot (or a pick acquired prior to that year’s draft cycle). 15 quarterbacks were drafted via trade up, while only one was taken after a team traded down. Just in the top 10 alone, 17 were taken with the team’s original pick, 11 were acquired after a trade up, and none via trade down.
Note: This does not include the Eli Manning-Philip Rivers trade as a team trading down for a quarterback, as the Chargers technically drafted Manning then traded him to the Giants, who had already ‘drafted’ Philip Rivers.
In the last 20 years, there’s only one instance of a team trading down in the first round only to take a quarterback. For the last time it happened in the top 10, we need to go back another decade beyond that.
The Patriots trading down while still targeting a quarterback wouldn’t just be zigging while everyone else is zagging. It wouldn’t just be ‘chess versus checkers.’ It would be a monumental departure from the way every NFL team has approached addressing the quarterback position in the draft for decades.
We’ll get into why that is, what if means for the Patriots, and if the Patriots should be taking a quarterback in the first round at all. But first, you’re probably wondering who the five quarterbacks acquired via trade-down are? Here’s the list, plus one more passer who loosely fits the definition…
2013: E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – SEPTEMBER 22: Quarterback EJ Manuel #3 of the Buffalo Bills looks to pass against the New York Jets during a game at MetLife Stadium on September 22, 2013 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Schultz /Getty Images)
In 2013 the Bills traded down from the eighth overall pick to 16 to draft Manuel out of Florida State. Manuel was the only quarterback taken in the first round that year. He started 17 games total over four seasons in Buffalo, with just seven of those coming after his rookie year. After one more NFL season he was out of the league in 2018.
2007: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles
SAN FRANCISCO – OCTOBER 10: Kevin Kolb #4 of the Philadelphia Eagles passes against the San Francisco 49ers during an NFL game at Candlestick Park on October 10, 2010 in San Francisco, California.(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
Kolb is the one quarterback who half-qualifies for this list. He wasn’t a first round pick, but the Eagles traded back from a first-round spot (26) to take him early in the second (36). Kolb started seven games in four years in Philly, then 14 more over the next three years before having to retire due to concussions.
2003: Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears
CHICAGO – DECEMBER 14: Quarterback Rex Grossman #8 of the Chicago Bears throws a pass during a game against the Minnesota Vikings on December 14, 2003 at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Vikings 13-10. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
The Bears traded with the New York Jets, moving down from the fourth overall pick to the 13th, and also getting the 22nd overall pick back in the deal. They used the 22nd overall pick to draft Grossman, who quarterbacked them to a Super Bowl appearance in 2006 but went 2-6 as a starter the next two years and wasn’t re-signed when his contract expired. (As for the 13th pick, they ended up moving down one more spot to 14 allowing the Patriots to take Ty Warren 13th, they took defensive end Michael Haynes 14th).
In between their original slot and the 22nd pick two other quarterbacks were taken – the Jacksonville Jaguars took Byron Leftwich seventh overall and the Baltimore Ravens moved up to 19th to take Kyle Boller 19th overall.
2002: Patrick Ramsey, Washington
IRVING, TX – DECEMBER 26: Quarterback Patrick Ramsey #11 of the Washington Redskins looks to hand-off against the Dallas Cowboys during the game on December 26, 2004 at Texas Stadium in Irving, Texas. The Cowboys won 13-10. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Two years in a row the Patriots helped a team move back to take a quarterback. Washington let the Patriots move up to 21 (to take tight end Daniel Graham), moving back to the 32nd overall pick to grab Ramsey. Ramsey started 24 total games in four years for Washington, going 10-14 before serving as a backup elsewhere for three more seasons.
1999: Cade McNown, Chicago Bears
04 Aug 2001: Cade McNown #8 of the Chicago Bears passses against the defense of the Cincinnati Bengals during the NFL pre-season game at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. The Bears defeated the Bengals 16-13 in overtime. Credit: Jonathan Daniel/ALLSPORT
The Bears moved down from seven to 12 to take McNown in 1999. Not only did Washington then use the seventh pick to take future hall of famer Champ Bailey, but the Minnesota Vikings jumped the Bears to take another quarterback – Daunte Culpepper – 11th overall. McNown only played two years for the Bears, going 3-12 as a starter.
1995: Kerry Collins, Carolina Panthers
14 Aug 1998: Quarterback Kerry Collins #12 of the Carolina Panthers in action during a pre-season game against the Buffalo Bills at the Bills Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Panthers defeated the Bills 12-7. Credit: Rick Stewart/Allsport
Finally, we get to the last occurrence of a team trading down within the top 10 to still take a quarterback. That distinction goes to the 1995 Carolina Panthers, who moved down from the top spot in the draft to fifth to take Collins. Collins had a decent NFL career but only played three and a half years in Carolina before asking to be released by the team in 1998. Meanwhile the one quarterback taken ahead of him – Steve McNair by the then-Houston Oilers – would prove to be a franchise quarterback and lead his team to a Super Bowl in his fifth season.
Why don’t teams trade down for quarterbacks?
Apr 27, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; The podium with draft logo at the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft at the Philadelphia Museum of Art. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
This all begs the question, why don’t teams trade down for quarterbacks? It’s done with every other position, sometimes to great benefit. Just last year the Patriots were (rightfully) applauded for reading the board and moving down to still take cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
But like so many aspects of the NFL, the quarterback position is just treated differently because of the organizational value that comes with it. Given what a good quarterback can mean for a team, if an organization truly believes in a prospect at the position they don’t seem to be willing to risk losing that player, even if it means passing on additional assets.
The reality is, it’s better to ‘overdraft’ a quarterback you believe in rather than moving down and risking losing him. If a team believes a given quarterback is the player to lead them to a Super Bowl, is there any price worth that risk? At the same time, it’s incredibly rare for players at other positions to provide that kind of jolt.
Take guys like Patrick Mahomes (drafted 10th by the Chiefs in 2017) and Josh Allen (drafted seventh by the Bills in 2018). At the time both were viewed as ‘over-drafted,’ but nobody is second-guessing those picks now even if their respective teams gave up what was viewed at the time as ‘too much’ to get them. Meanwhile, the best wide receiver of the last era (Calvin Johnson) and best left tackle (Joe Thomas) played in a combined total of two playoff games in a combined 20 years, due in large part to sub-par quarterback play on their respective teams.
If the quarterback is good, nobody will care if they were ‘over-drafted’ by a few spots. Conversely, if the quarterback is bad, it doesn’t matter where you drafted him – you don’t have a good quarterback and can’t move on in your rebuild. Of course this is all within reason (the 49ers taking Brock Purdy in the first round would have been a bit much) but when it comes to a difference of three or four draft spots, or having an extra third or fourth round pick, the risk doesn’t outweigh the reward.
What does this mean for the Patriots?
Nov 24, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; A New England Patriots helmet sits idle before the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Patriots at U.S. Bank Stadium. Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
What does this trend tell us about the Patriots’ draft strategy for 2024? A few things.
First, trading down for a quarterback generally isn’t the right move. If the Patriots don’t believe in any of the top quarterbacks enough to take them third overall, they shouldn’t be investing a first-round pick on them at all with all of the other talent on the board.
At the same time, if the Patriots truly believe one of the other top offensive players (most likely Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. or Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt) can make the kind of franchise-altering impact a quarterback can, they shouldn’t trade down and play games with that player either. Basically, if the answer is on the board – pick him.
The Patriots have what they should hope is a rare chance to add elite talent at the top of this draft this year, and should look to take advantage of that. With the roster needing an influx of top-level talent, the more pertinent move is likely trading back up into the first round from the 34th pick.
Over the past few years the Patriots have certainly made their share of draft decisions that went against the grain, bucking conventional trends. While there should be a hope the team takes a more aggressive approach to this year’s draft, moving back for a quarterback would be an extreme version of the former, not the latter.
