It may be weird to think of a ‘high point’ in a season in which the New England Patriots will finish with their worst record in two decades, but if there is one it’s the Week 7 29-25 win over the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. At the time the Patriots held off talk of the season being a lost cause, and knocked off a division rival that had beat them four games in a row and in six of the previous seven.
That loss also kicked off a mid-season slide for the Bills who lost three of four and four of six heading into their bye in a stretch that could end up costing them a playoff spot. Of course, things didn’t go great for the Patriots either – they lost five in a row after that win as their season went into a tailspin.
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Both teams have responded to those slides in recent weeks, with the Bills having won three in a row to get back into playoff contention. While the Patriots have won two of their last three any playoff chances are long gone, so for them it’s about playing spoiler this week.
Since that last meeting, there have been key changes for both teams on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Joe Brady. Meanwhile, the Patriots made the switch at quarterback from Mac Jones to Bailey Zappe.
How will those changes impact this rematch? Let’s take a look…
Will Josh Allen bounce back?
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 22: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks to pass the ball in the first half of the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on October 22, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
In that first matchup the Patriots had one of their best games against Josh Allen since his breakout 2020 season. Allen completed just 27 of his 41 pass attempts for 265 yards with a touchdown and an interception, plus a strip sack. He wasn’t a major factor with his legs either rushing seven times for 17 yards, although he did add a touchdown on the ground.
The Patriots tried some different strategies against Allen as they had in the past, such as playing more zone and mixing coverages on star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. One of the first big questions in this game is what the Bills change from their gameplan to counter, assuming the Patriots start off with similar looks defensively.
Part of what will help the Bills do that is the fact that their offense has naturally changed under Joe Brady. There’s less of a focus on the pass and a more expansive ground attack. Allen’s pass attempts per game are down while his rushes are up, as are the total rushing numbers for the team.
This is where the Bills could put the Patriots in conflict. Will the Patriots allocate extra resources to take away the run, knowing what Allen can do without the proper attention paid to him?
In recent weeks the Patriots have been strong against the run without having to expend extra assets, as the group up front led by Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux has been playing at a high level. That kind of success against the run this week could put the ball in Allen’s hands against a defense he struggled with earlier this year – a spot the Bills don’t want to be in. In that situation, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots’ defensive plan mirrors Week 7.
If running back James Cook gets going though, the Patriots will have a tough choice to make. Take away the Bills’ latest strength, or continue to make stopping Allen’s passing game priority No. 1.
The Patriots’ left tackle situation
Dec 7, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New England Patriots offensive tackle Trent Brown (77) blocks against Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Nick Herbig (51) during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Trent Brown hasn’t practiced yet this week, leaving doubt as to whether or not he’ll be active on Sunday. Even if he is, it’s looking like he could be in for another rotational role rather than playing wire-to-wire.
In recent weeks the Patriots had used a left tackle rotation, but Conor McDermott was the other tackle with Brown. McDermott is now on IR, leaving the Patriots thin at the position.
Last week, Vederian Lowe started for Brown and gave up a strip sack on the first play. He recovered and didn’t allow another pressure after that. The Patriots may need a similar performance from him this week, against a Bills pass rush that remains dangerous as the defense struggles overall.
Next step for Bailey Zappe
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 17: Bailey Zappe #4 of the New England Patriots attempts a pass during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Bailey Zappe has put together some highlights the last few weeks. He’s now 2-2 as a a starter with six touchdowns and two interceptions in the four games.
With that performance, Zappe has certainly proven he belongs as an NFL quarterback. The question is – at what level. This has been the year of the backup QB, with guys like Josh Dobbs, Tommy DeVito, Jake Browning, Gardner Minshew, and others all getting their 15 minutes in the spotlight.
Right now, Zappe looks like a fit within that group. If he wants to show he’s at another level the key will be playing with more consistency. While he’s had some highlight throws over the past few weeks, they’ve been paired with wild misses as well. That’s a big part of what sets the league’s top quarterbacks apart – not necessarily the individual big time throws they make, but the frequency and regularity with which they make them.
In the first meeting between the Patriots and Bills Mac Jones was able to string together a complete game – it was pretty much the only time all season he did so. Since then the Bills have proven tough to throw on – allowing less than 175 passing yards two weeks in a row and in three of the last five games. If Zappe can take it to them for a full 60 minutes, it would only add to the momentum he’s already built.
