The New England Patriots are in trouble.
There are layers to that assertion. The Patriots are in trouble for the 2023 season, which is in danger of slipping away as they sit at 1-3 and having just lost their best overall player (Matthew Judon) and arguably their second-best (Christian Gonzalez), and having come off one of the ugliest losses in franchise history. They’re in trouble for the long-term, because their roster-building on offense has been poor in an offense-driven era of football, and the futures of both quarterback Mac Jones and head coach Bill Belichick are uncertain.
And yes, they’re in trouble on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 26: Head coach Bill Belichick and Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots walk off the field after the loss to the New Orleans Saints at Gillette Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
It is very much worth noting that the Saints went into Foxboro two years ago and beat the Patriots 28-13, in Mac Jones’ third career start. Jones threw a pick-six in that game, albeit on a pass that clanged off the hands of tight end Jonnu Smith. Clearly, not much has changed in either the quarterbacking or receiving department in New England.
The Saints also won that game with Jameis Winston at quarterback, and it’s possible they get Winston again on Sunday, as incumbent starter Derek Carr deals with an AC joint injury. There’s less overall concern for the Patriots defense against those QBs, but there’s a chance that the Saints are getting the Patriots at the perfect time, as they scramble to adjust to life without Judon and Gonzalez.
But clearly, the bigger worry is for Mac Jones and the offense, regardless of what happened two years ago. Coming off the worst single-game performance of his career, Jones is in desperate need of a bounce-back, and it’s not going to be easy this Sunday.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 26: Quarterback Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots slides on the turf during the game against the New Orleans Saints at Gillette Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
It would be nice if Jones and the offense had a soft landing against a porous defense, but that’s not New Orleans. The Saints rank ninth in the league at 19 points allowed per game (the Patriots are 21st at 24.3), and they’re tied for the third-fewest touchdowns allowed (six). They’re a stingy red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on 46.2 percent of opposing red zone possessions (that’s better than the Patriots’ 50 percent red zone D).
The Saints are only middle-of-the-pack in various pressure stats, but they’re facing a Patriots offense that has allowed the 11th-most total pressures through four games (via Pro Football Reference). And those numbers might be worse if Bill O’Brien hadn’t built his early-season game plans around quick decisions to offset them.
And beyond all that, the main reason the Saints have allowed the fourth-lowest opposing passer rating (73.1) is their secondary. They lead the league in pass breakups (29) and they’re fourth with five total interceptions. And that’s no fluke. Between Marshon Lattimore, Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye, and Johnathan Abram, they are loaded with experience and talent on the backend.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 26: Quarterback Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots passes the ball against the New Orleans Saints in the first quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
“They’re very sound everywhere across the board,” Jones said Wednesday on the Saints defense. “They’ve got experienced players on all three levels and like I said, it kind of starts with us. What can we do better and what can I do better? That’s just focus on each play. What’s the design of the play? If it’s a run, hand it off, if it’s a pass, throw it, if it’s RPO, read it out.
“That’s kind of the main thing I’m focusing on. But, they definitely have talent. They have great coaching and really just a good defense.”
Yes, of course, if the Patriots offense wants to start scoring more and playing better, more sound football, it starts with Jones, the offensive line, and the receivers. Jones needs to make better decisions with the ball. The offensive line needs to block. The receivers need to run the right way and actually catch the ball when it hits them in the hands.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones releases a pass under pressure from Saints defenders. (Syndication: The Providence Journal)
But even if the Patriots’ offensive execution is suddenly crisp across the board, if Jones is protecting the ball, if the line is giving him time – and that can’t be ruled out, because the Pats are out of the so-called “extension of the preseason” now – they’re facing legitimate defensive talent on the other side. If they’re less than perfect, this is a group that can make them pay, especially in the secondary.
The fact that the Patriots started 1-3 isn’t a shocking development, considering they played what appears to be three of the best teams in the NFL this season (Eagles, Dolphins, Cowboys). It was sort of expected among a lot of prognosticators. But the cause for concern is the way they’ve looked and the way these games have gone down, especially that Dallas debacle. They’ve also been out-coached in the three losses, so there’s a lot of pressure on Bill Belichick and his staff to do a better job themselves.
This Saints game, despite being winnable, is the real pivot point for the Patriots’ season. If they fall to 1-4, then we’re going to have serious issues. If they can get out of there with a win, maybe it’s the start of a turnaround. But they’ve done little to inspire confidence that a turnaround is going to happen, particularly on offense, and now the defense has to basically reinvent itself on the fly without its best, most impactful player.
Sep 26, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) scrambles with the ball against New Orleans Saints during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots may very well bounce back and deliver a strong response to an ugly game last week. But it’s not going to be easy. And as the post-Tom Brady era has rolled on, such a response has become increasingly rare.
We’ll see if Mac Jones has one in him.
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Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Check out all of Matt’s content here.
