The New England Patriots plan to spend in free agency in the 2024 off-season. It should be big. And so should the caliber of players they sign.
There are enough high-end players at positions of need in free agency, that the Patriots should be able to lure in at least one. This means that, even if the Patriots’ spending spree is similar to 2021 in terms of total money, it should still be a departure from how Bill Belichick and the Patriots approached it two years ago.
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Armed with $66.1 million in salary cap space, fourth-most in the NFL, the Patriots are poised to spend similarly to their 2021 explosion that totaled $137.5 million in guarantees. That’s if head coach Jerod Mayo’s word is good enough to keep that promise.
“We’re bringing in talent, one thousand percent,” Mayo said during an interview on WEEI. “We have a lot of cap space and cash. Ready to burn some cash,” he finished, in a mockingly badass way.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 17: Newly appointed head coach Jerod Mayo of the New England Patriots speaks to the media during a press conference at Gillette Stadium on January 17, 2024 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Mayo’s personality is certainly shining through in his early media appearances as the Patriots’ new head coach, in just one of the ways he’s sure to be different than his predecessor. But how truthful is he being about the burning of the cash?
The Pats obviously have the aforementioned space to work with. And in simply going from Belichick to a 37-year-old first-time head coach in Mayo, they likely have a lot more room in the football budget to spend on players.
But the question is: how do they spend? Do they do it wisely?
One could argue that only some of the Patriots’ 2021 spree was well-spent. Matthew Judon and Hunter Henry were home runs at a combined AAV of about $26.1 million. But one area that could be pointed to as an area of questionable management: wide receiver.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – JANUARY 21: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers catches a pass in front of Cameron Sutton #1 of the Detroit Lions during the second quarter of the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Ford Field on January 21, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
In 2021, the Patriots signed Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to contracts with an average annual value of $16 million, in a year that the overall market at the position wasn’t strong. Compare those signings to that of Christian Kirk the following year with the Jaguars, for $18 million annually. Kirk has averaged 83 catches, 1,111 yards, and six touchdowns per 17 games over his two seasons in Jacksonville.
Fast-forward to 2024, and the free-agent wide receiver market is top-heavy. Mike Evans and Tee Higgins headline the class, and either one of them would immediately become the No. 1 wide receiver on most NFL teams. For the Patriots, Evans or Higgins would transform the entire offense overnight. Michael Pittman Jr. and Calvin Ridley are also among the bigger names available in free agency.
CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 17: Tee Higgins #5 of the Cincinnati Bengals catches a touchdown while defended by Ar’Darius Washington #29 of the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter at Paycor Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Now is an opportunity for the Patriots to strike while the top end of the market is worth the investment. Evans, Higgins, or Pittman would have a good chance to be the richest free-agent signing in Patriots history. But there will be few better times for Robert Kraft to pull the trigger than 2024.
The Patriots certainly have needs beyond just a No. 1 wide receiver, like offensive tackle. The market isn’t as strong as at wideout – the Patriots’ Trent Brown is actually one of the better tackles on track for the open market – but the Patriots could also stand to spend more wisely at that position than they have of late.
Dec 7, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New England Patriots guard Mike Onwenu (71) blocks against Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt (90) during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
In 2023, the Patriots spent about $14.6 million in cash between Brown, Riley Reiff, Calvin Anderson, Tyrone Wheatley Jr., and Vederian Lowe. All that may need to go toward simply re-signing Mike Onwenu to play right tackle. But you get the picture. Concentrated spending on a single impact player trumps a bunch of smaller lottery tickets and a prayer that one of them hits.
The Patriots’ top-10 free-agent signings in 2021 totaled $69.25 million in AAV. With that money, the Patriots can easily land one or two of the top free agents, preferably for legitimate impact guys at positions of need, and go bargain-hunting with the rest. The Pats need a real infusion of talent, and the only way to get it immediately is in free agency.
And for 2024, it’s lining up perfectly for them to strike big.
