So let’s get this straight: The Red Sox chose to trade Chris Sale. The Red Sox are getting younger and cheaper. And the throttle is … um … where?
Fully forward? Completely in reverse? Stuck in neutral?
Before we even get into some of the specifics of the Sale trade, let’s start with an obvious, bigger-picture question: where are the Red Sox going? Your (once) beloved Boston baseball team is an aggregate 356-352 over the last five years, a winning percentage of .503 that ranks 16th among the 30 major league teams. That is the definition of mid-market. The Red Sox have finished in last place three times and, during that time, have employed three general managers. Dave Dombrowski gave way to Chaim Bloom who begot Craig Breslow, the last of whom was the man who pulled the trigger on the deal that sent Sale to the Atlanta Braves on Saturday for infielder Vaughn Grissom.
Before we delve further into the Sale decision, let’s also mention here that the Sox also have signed pitcher Lucas Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million contract in yet-another deal that seems driven by their fear of commitment. Due to turn 30 in 2024, Giolito is a former first0round pick, 16th overall, who has played for four organizations, including three last year alone. (The Red Sox will be his fourth club in less than one season.) He has a career record of 62-61 with a 4.43 ERA – again, the definition of mid-market – and last year served up home runs (41) like he was passing out mini wieners at Costco.
The good news? Generally, Giolito has been healthy. Over the last six seasons, Giolito’s 947 innings rank eighth in baseball. The bad news? Among the 14 pitchers with the requisite 870 innings to qualify for the mythical multiyear ERA title he ranks 13th, right between Kyle Gibson and Patrick Corbin. Understand? He’s average, which makes him something akin to Lance Lynn, who is also on the list. In modern Red Sox terms, he’s sort of like Nick Pivetta, which the Red Sox already have. That guy’s name is … Nick Pivetta.
Oh, did we mention? If Giolito pitches well, he can opt out of his contract and hit the market again next offseason, when he is likely to get a better deal from another club who lack the fear of commitment the Red Sox do. Presumably, the Sox will then sign the next Giolito … or the next Garrett Richards, James Paxton or Corey Kluber they encounter at their next speed-dating event.
But we digress.
Back to the Sale trade – and to three takeaways from the deal.
Sale was content to leave Boston
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 1: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox bites on his glove as he leaves the game in the middle of the fourth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Fenway Park on June 1, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
When Sale signed his five-year, $145 million extension at the start of the 2019 season, we all new it was a bad decision – and when we say “we all,” we mean everyone other than the Red Sox, who somehow thought it was a good idea. (Blame Dombrowski if you like, but ownership signed off.) So yes, Sale is finally gone – and thank heavens for that. Now ask yourselves this: are the Red Sox better, specifically in pitching? Does swapping Sale for Giolito substantially change their outlook? The answer is no. Further, Sale had trade protection and has spent a good amount of time during his career professing the importance of loyalty. But the simple truth is that Atlanta gives him a better chance to win than Boston does, which is why he happily agrees to the deal. Back in 2017, winning was why he came to Boston and and wanted out of Chicago. Get the point? Boston is now where people like Giolito come to (hopefully) use the Red Sox and then skip town.
Grissom feels like a defensive sinkhole
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – SEPTEMBER 19: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves nearly collides with Vaughn Grissom #18 as he catches a fly ball by Riley Adams #15 of the Washington Nationals in the ninth inning at Truist Park on September 19, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Here’s what Craig Breslow, the Red Sox’ latest chief baseball executive, said about Grissom: “Second base is an area of need for us. I think I’ve talked about the opportunity to upgrade there and we view him as someone that can play every day.”
Serious follow-up: based on what?
Look, the Red Sox have spent an awful lot of time talking about their wretched defense over the last couple of seasons. Along with their need for pitching, improving the defense was an obvious priority. Now consider this: in the 2022-23 seasons combined, among 74 second baseman who played at least 350 innings in the majors, Grissom ranked 68th in defensive outs above average. That was four places behind the left-handed-hitting Enmanuel Valdez, who sometimes looked like he wore his cleats on his hands. Certainly, Grissom is young and can improve – and the Sox are betting on the same thing with Valdez. The more stuff you throw against the wall, the greater the likelihood that some of it sticks.
Now, at the risk of making a completely unfair and inaccurate judgment, look at the photo to the right: do these look like normal throwing mechanics? Let’s see how this shakes out. Certainly, Grissom can also makes plays like this one and his athleticism has been praised. So why are the highly-regarded Braves giving him up for an older, historically broken down lefty in what feels like a flier for both teams? The answer: neither guy is a sure thing.
In the interest of fairness, we will admit this: Grissom feels like he can hit and, as a right-handed bat, feels like both a good complement for Valdez and for the left-handed-heavy Boston lineup. All of us should – and will – go into this with an open mind. But make no mistake: Grissom is more of a long-term play than a short-term play, which is hardly to suggest that he cannot be both. And his arrival might mean the Sox are now position to trade Nick Yorke.
So far, Breslow feels like Bloom 2.0
Nov 7, 2023; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Boston Red Six chief baseball officer Craig Breslow speaks to the media during the MLB General Manager’s Meetings at Omni Scottsdale Resort & Spa. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Is it too early to judge Breslow? Of course. But it’s now fair to ask: were the Red Sox looking for someone bold or were they looking for just a better version of Bloom? So far, it certainly feels like the latter. Thus far, the Red Sox have shown no willingness to do anything big or bold, whiffing on Yoshinobu Yamamoto while signing Cooper Criswell and Giolito. Hell, even Bloom explored the idea of trading Sale though, sadly, couldn’t pull the trigger. Thus far, Breslow has made only Bloom-type deals, ditching the salaries of both Alex Verdugo and Sale while signing Giolito. That all feels very familiar, ordinary and unimpressive given the Red Sox’ obvious need for high end talent on the pitching staff.
So again, we come back to the bigger picture: are the Red Sox better today? Worse? The same? Have Bloom and ownership made any sort of seismic maneuver?
Or are the Red Sox still plain some sort of mid-market shell game, moving pieces to make you think the picture is changing when it really isn’t?
