Like it or not, the Boston baseball season begins on Thursday. And just because things seem bleak, well, that hardly means the 2024 Red Sox outlook is unimportant.
So what should you expect from this year’s model? That depends on your perspective as the Red Sox continue to spin their wheels during what feels like a never-ending rebuild.
Given the Red Sox’ resources, after all, what you should expect is a perennial playoff contender that threatens for championships, however you want to define that. (But you’ll generally know it when you see it.) What you can expect now feels like something altogether different, especially as the Red Sox come off both another last-place finish (their third in four years) and an offseason that might have been even worse.
Seriously. What the %#>! was Tom Werner thinking when he said, back in November, that the Red Sox were prepared to go “full throttle”? And whatever his answer was, it made things worse. It also made the Red Sox look clownish, disconnected and out-of-touch – and it ultimately helped make the outlook for the Red Sox and their fans, at a minimum, blustery. Did the Sox want Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Sure. But really wanting a player means doing what the Sox did back in 2007, when they blew everyone out of the water for Daisuke Matsuzaka and had a baseball operation that was rapidly becoming the envy of everyone in Major League Baseball. Larry Lucchino and Theo Epstein meant business because John Henry and Werner meant business. Boston had become a superpower (and not just in baseball). Now it feels like the Sox are part of a portfolio like some small- or mid-cap index fund.
If baseball were a Broadway show, the 2024 Red Sox would be part of the ensemble. Or they’d be in the orchestra pit.
So, again, what can you expect from the 2024 Red Sox? Let’s start with the bare minimum that any franchise should give its fan base:
Hope
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 20: Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on September 20, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)
Wait … hope? Yes, hope. Sad, right? And if that’s not hope for the current season then it’s hope for the future, preferably of the more immediate kind. Over the last five seasons, the Red Sox are 356-352, which ranks 16th in the major leagues, behind such franchises as Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Minnesota, Seattle and San Diego. In the last two years, they rank 20th. After four years of Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox were supposed to be getting better, not worse. Just because Bloom is gone and Craig Breslow is now here, that doesn’t mean the franchise gets to hit the reset button the way a fledgling corporation would file for bankruptcy.
Sorry, John Henry. You too, Tom Werner. Even you, Sam Kennedy. The meter’s still running. You’ve run up quite a tab with your fan base. Business is business. Nothing personal. You owe them.
Now, how can that payment come – at least realistically – in 2024? We need to see some real building blocks, specifically on the pitching staff. Triston Casas looks like a potential cornerstone opposite Rafael Devers. And while Brayan Bello has a new contract, we won’t know what his ceiling really is until he can handle those lefties (an .883 OPS against him last year – isn’t his changeup supposed to be good?) and until get to the ballpark on time to better compete in those day games (a whopping 6.94 ERA in 10 starts). Someone (or sometwo) in the group of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski needs to pop as a starter unless the Sox are willing to pay for pitching – and I think we’re all about done playing that stupid game.
Let’s get right to the point: the pitching in the Red Sox’ overhyped minor league system stinks. That has to change. And you don’t want to believe me, don’t. But read this:
Fundamentals
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JUNE 05: Manager Alex Cora of the Boston Red Sox argues with home plate umpire Chris Guccione during the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on June 05, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Nick Grace/Getty Images)
Look, there’s bad baseball and there’s bad baseball, and the second is different from the first. In the American League, you can go 78-84 and finish last in your division without being truly bad. But when you play defense like the ball is radioactive and run the bases like your hair is on fire, there’s no excuse. The Red Sox have done all of that. In the last four seasons, the Red Sox have led the majors in errors – warning: traditional statistic! – while finishing 20th in defensive runs saved and 20th in outs above average. In the two years, they rank a respective 23rd and 28th. Get the picture? Their defense blows. Ya Mazz, they can’t catch a cold.
Here’s the other thing: in 2022, according to baseball-reference.com, the Sox were 17th in stolen bases and 25th in extra bases taken; the year before, they were a respective 26th and 25th. In terms of pitching, defense and speed – all while claiming they want to get more athletic – the Sox have been below average across the board. Meanwhile, manager Alex Cora is hardly among the major problems on the team, but he hasn’t exactly hidden his contempt for the way the Sox have been running their operation, either. Part of the manager’s job is to keep everyone focused.
As we all know, Cora is entering the final year of his contract. The general belief is that he wants out, which is fine. He deserves better than a franchise that has been half-assing it. But in his final year, he has to give more, too. Especially if he wants a contract somewhere else.
Improvement
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 30: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox reacts to making an error on a ball hit by Brandon Crawford #35 of the San Francisco Giants in the bottom of the fifth inning at Oracle Park on July 30, 2023 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Kavin Mistry/Getty Images)
Here’s another question for you: among notable pieces on the Red Sox last year who will also be a part of the team’s future, who got indisputably better as the year progressed? Certainly Casas qualifies. Maybe Crawford. That might be it. More importantly, the 2023 Red Sox went 9-23 in their final 32 games. Excluding the Covid-shortened 2020 season, they have now had consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 2014-15. In that case, the 2015 Red Sox actually went 34-26 in their final 60 games, and that was true despite the fact that they lost the last four; the next season, in 2016, they made the playoffs. (Of course, they also signed David Price.) But you get point.
If the Red Sox want to be a playoff team again in the near future, it starts with an upward trajectory, especially at the end of this season. They need to get better, not worse. Hope starts with improvement. They need to begin by getting better.
