Throughout this week, New England Patriots players and coaches have stressed the need to move on from last week’s blowout loss and not let it linger. Their path to getting back on track and digging out of a 1-3 hole begins this Sunday, when they host the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints come into this game in an interesting spot as well. They’re 2-2, have lost two games in a row after winning two to start the season.
READ MORE:
—J.C. Jackson is back with the Patriots
—Three players designated to return from IR/PUP
—Christian Gonzalez’s season is likely over
This will be the second time the Patriots face the Saints in the post-Tom Brady era. New Orleans visited Gillette Stadium in 2021, and beat the Patriots 28-13.
Things will look a little different this time around though. That 2021 season was the final year for the Saints under long-time head coach Sean Payton. Dennis Allen, who was the defensive coordinator in 2021, has since taken over as the head coach. The Saints have also turned over much of their roster, as Bill Belichick pointed out this week.
“They’ve done a good job in really maintaining the program they’ve had over the last three years. They’ve done a really good job with the team. They’re well balanced. This is a solid team,” Belichick explained when breaking down the Saints on Wednesday morning. “Mickey [Loomis, GM] and Dennis have acquired a lot of players here to, say, compensate for some of the losses they’ve had. You know, drafted well. So, a really, really solid group here.”
So, the Patriots should expect a mix of old and new when the welcome the Saints into Gillette Stadium this Sunday. As we get started with this week’s What To Watch For though, let’s focus on something that was a deciding factor in that 2021 matchup…
Mac Jones’ ball security
Oct 1, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) on the field before the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
After last week’s offensive debacle, limiting turnovers sounds like it’s the focus inside the meeting rooms and on the practice fields of Gillette Stadium this week. Players and coaches have both cited the need to do a better job of taking care of the football on offense.
No player is more in the spotlight in that regard than quarterback Mac Jones, who threw two interceptions last week – including a pick-six – and had a couple of more would-be picks dropped. He was also strip-sacked just outside of his own end zone, leading to another defensive touchdown.
Jones now looks to cut down on the turnovers against a Saints team that got him good in their last matchup. Jones threw three interceptions in that 2021 defeat, including a pick-six to Malcolm Jenkins on the first play of the third quarter. They were the first three interceptions of his career (the game was played in Week 3).
All three interceptions were set up differently. The first came as Jones was facing heavy pressure from the Saints’ pass rush, the second (the pick-six) was a result of what looked like a miscommunication between Jones and tight end Jonnu Smith, and the third game late in the fourth quarter on a desperation toss.
On that day, Jones needed to do a better job all-around of taking care of the football. The same can be said about his performance last week. Will he have his ball security issues cleaned up? Or will this Saints defense – which ranks fourth in the NFL with five interceptions through four games – get him again?
Hand the ball off when it’s time to hand the ball off
Aug 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien watches over quarterback Mac Jones (10) and the offense during the warm up period before a game against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
There were two plays early in last week’s game that didn’t exactly decide the outcome, but certainly made things harder on the Patriots than they needed to be. These plays are an early 3rd & 1 throw in the red zone that fell incomplete, and then the failed QB sneak on 4th & 1 in the second quarter.
Again, neither play directly cost the Patriots the game. But they did end two other-wise promising drives for the team, potentially taking points off the board early. Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien called the failed QB sneak “a big point in the game.”
Those two plays continued what’s become a bit of a concerning trend for the Patriots’ offense this year. Despite being built to run the ball, the team seems hesitant to call runs – especially traditional, under-center handoffs. That trend has noticeably included gotta-have-it short-yardage situations, like these two from Sunday.
Right now, the Patriots’ offense looks like it will be at its best if it can move the ball methodically. That means being able to pick up 3rd- and -4th & shorts with regularity. With two bowling ball running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott, it seems like something they should be able to capitalize on. Whether its due to a lack of trust in the backs, the offensive line, or something else, the Patriots haven’t flexed that power run muscle as much as they probably should be this year.
Against the Saints in particular, running on short-yardage situations is something the Patriots will need to do. So far this year, on 3rd- and 4th down plays where the opposing offense needs three or fewer yards, the Saints have faced nearly an even split of play calls – eight runs and nine passes. On the eight runs, the Saints are giving up a first down 62.5 percent of the time (with the league average being 67.9 percent). Against the pass in those situations, the Saints have allowed a first down just 33.3 percent of the time (compared to an NFL average of 54.9 percent).
Will the Patriots follow and exploit this trend? Even if they’re cautious about their ability to run the ball traditionally, they should at least test the Saints’ defensive ability to defend those runs and find out for sure.
Can the defense start making plays?
Sep 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick pre game against ther Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
There has been a lot of talk about the lack of playmaking by the Patriots’ offense through four weeks. While it’s gone more under the radar, the same can be said about the Patriots’ defense.
Last year, the Patriots tied for the league lead with 30 takeaways. Based on the way this year’s team is built, it seems like the plan was to once again have the defense be as much of a factor in flipping/winning games as the offense.
That hasn’t been the case though. Through four games the Patriots are tied for 30th with just two takeaways. They’re also tied for 24th in defensive fumble recoveries (2) and are tied for 20th in sacks (10) . The only major defensive playmaking statistic in which they rank in the top half of the league is tackles for loss, where they’re tied for 13th (21).
Flipping the script on their start is easier said than done with two of their top playmakers in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez out due to injury. Still, the unit needs somebody to step up. Perhaps it will be ‘Mr. INT’ himself J.C. Jackson, who is back with the team after being acquired via trade this week. Keion White is another player to watch here, given that he showed good ball instincts in the preseason.
How effective will Derek Carr be?
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 01: Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints attempts a pass during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome on October 01, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Two weeks ago, Saints quarterback Derek Carr suffered a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder that knocked him out of the team’s Week 3 loss to the Green Bay Packers. While this injury normally costs quarterbacks time – it’s the injury that knocked Jimmy Garppolo out for two weeks early in the 2017 season – Carr returned last week.
Credit to Carr for toughing it out for his team, but he did appear to be limited. Outside of one 50-yard pass that fell short an incomplete he mainly kept his throws around the line of scrimmage. He threw the ball 37 times, completing 23 passes, but for just 127 passing yards. His 5.5 yards per completion were the lowest by any quarterback in a game this year (min. 20 pass attempts).
(via NFL Next Gen Stats)
While Carr may be in slightly better shape this week, it’s still unlikely he’ll be 100 percent (he’s been limited all week in practice). That means that despite the Saints having an offense built to stretch the field, the Patriots should be able to focus more towards the line of scrimmage. Tackling will be key this week, to limit the Saints’ ability to create yards after the catch.
Countering Kamara
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 01: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints catches a pass during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome on October 01, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
In order to help compensate for Carr’s last week, the Saints involved running back Alvin Kamara heavily in both the run and pass games. Of the Saints’ 61 offensive plays last week, 25 of them (40.1 percent) involved the ball going to Kamara. He carried the ball 11 times for 51 yards, and caught 13 of 14 targets for 33 yards.
Kamara’s 2.5 yards per catch last week was the lowest for any player in NFL history with at least 10 catches in a game (source). A big part of that was the Tampa Bay defenders swarming to the ball and gang tackling. Kamara can be dangerous if he gets into the open field, so the Patriots will also need to get to him quickly, swarm to the ball, and get him to the ground.
Covering kicks
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – SEPTEMBER 24: Rashid Shaheed #22 of the New Orleans Saints returns a punt for a touchdown during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on September 24, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Starting last week, some Patriots players starting wearing shirts that read on the back ‘tough teams cover kicks.’ This week will be a good test of that motto.
Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed has been one of the best returners in football this year. He’s most dangerous as a punt returner. His 23.8 yards per return leads all players with at least one punt return per game this year. Of his six punt returns, two have been longer than 20 yards including a 76-yard touchdown which is one of just three punt return touchdowns in the NFL this year. Shaheed has been good on kick returns too, with his 228 kick return yards ranking second in the league.
Is what figures to be a close, low-scoring game, one big play on special teams could be a deciding factor. The Patriots need to make sure Shaheed isn’t the one to make that play.
