On Monday afternoon, the New England Patriots made the signing many fans had been waiting for. Adding some much-needed established running back talent, they signed former Dallas Cowboys All-Pro Ezekiel Elliott to a one-year deal worth up to $6 million.
Elliott’s signing comes after anticipation had been building around him joining the Patriots. He had an official free agent visit with the team in late July. While the Patriots hosted a number of high-profile free agent visits this summer, none had turned into signings until Elliott.
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This time though, the Patriots got their guy. And for where the team is at right now, Elliott was the right guy for the job. For the most part, Patriots fans seem to have understood this, as the reaction to the signing has been largely (but not entirely) positive.
What makes Elliott the right option for the Patriots? And how did they get to the point where a 28-year-old running back who was released by his team in March and went un-signed for four months is an answer? Let’s go through it, step-by-step.
Why do the Patriots need another running back?
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
Let’s start with the basics. Why was running back a position of need for the Patriots, with Rhamondre Stevenson coming off a career-year at just 25 years old?
Because Stevenson’s 2022 season isn’t sustainable. That’s not an indictment on his talent, but there’s a reason that hardly any NFL teams use true workhorse running backs anymore – and those that do often fall off late in the season. The game is simply too physical at this point to ask one player to carry the ball that much.
In 2022, Stevenson was given 279 touches (catches plus carries), which ranked 10th in the NFL. Like many of the players ranked above him, Stevenson’s production fell off late in the year. At one point, he acknowledged that the workload was getting to him physically. It was also reported over the offseason the Patriots believed they needed to better manage Stevenson’s reps, which has been apparent in training camp in his limited involvement in team drills.
Simply put, with Stevenson there should be a better job to find a balance between quality and quantity. Yes, he’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands. But if he takes too much of a beating early in the season, that ability becomes lesser late in the year. Even lessening his workload by four or five touches per game could make a difference and see him make more of an impact during a playoff push in December and January.
We’ve established some of Stevenson’s touches needed to go elsewhere. That brings us to our second point…
Why couldn’t any of the other Patriots’ running backs taken on this role?
Aug 11, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Pierre Strong Jr. (35) runs with the ball during the second half of a preseason game against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
This is a very fair question. And it gets back to the main point of why Elliott is the right fit for the Patriots right now.
Last spring, the Patriots invested two draft picks in running backs Pierre Strong (fourth-round) and Kevin Harris (sixth-round). Given their diverse skillsets – Strong as a fast, elusive back and Harris as a power runner – and the fact Damien Harris was on an expiring contract, it wasn’t hard to connect the dots to at least one of those two, if not both, being the next player(s) up for the RB2 role behind Stevenson.
A year and a half later though, that hasn’t materialized. While the duo flashed potential as rookies, their opportunities were incredibly limited (they combined for 35 total touches over the course of the season). Coming into this camp there was hope at least one would break out, given the Patriots’ history of successfully ‘redshirting’ rookie running backs. Yet as the fourth week of training camp begins, neither player has shown enough to clearly make a push for the role.
Beyond the rookies, the other player who could have factored in here is Ty Montgomery. A hybrid running back/wide receiver, Montgomery could have taken over passing down duties full-time and left Stevenson with just the early-down responsibilities. However, Montgomery has been hurt since the second day of camp. Given his injury history, it would be tough for the Patriots to count on him to be a regular contributor without a solid backup plan. With Elliott’s signing though, he could be on the outside looking in at a roster spot.
What will Elliott’s role be?
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 20: Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys rushes for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
Alright, enough preamble. Let’s get to the man himself. What kind of role does that all set Elliott up for?
Given Stevenson’s versatility, the Patriots have some options. They could either give Elliott more early-down snaps and have Stevenson be the passing-down back, visa versa, or instead of switching by situation just switch by drive. For the most part that’s never been a part of their offensive system, but we did seem them experiment with it briefly before Montgomery got hurt in Week 1 last season.
What would make the most sense and is the most likely is giving Elliott the more taxing runs. That would mean mostly an early-down role, but also see him feature more in short-yardage third and fourth downs as well as goal line situations (yes, between Elliott’s goal line prowess and a potential Malik Cunningham goal line package, the Patriots are once again going to be a fantasy football nightmare).
Although Elliott may not be the back he once was, he is still among the best in the league at converting in short-yardage situations. Last season the bruising 6-foot, 228 pound Elliott picked up a first down or touchdown on 68.9 percent of his carries with the offense needing three yards or less. That ranked 13th of 42 qualifying running backs in the league. His third down conversion rate of 72 percent ranked eighth, and he scored a touchdown on 62.5 percent of his carries from inside of the five-yard line, ranking 10th (source). In those situations, there shouldn’t be much of a drop-off between Elliott and Stevenson, allowing the Patriots to still be competitive in those situations while taking more of the more bruising carries out of Stevenson’s hands.
Along those lines, Elliott should also be able to take over some of the more physically demanding carries late in games, especially when the outcome is out of reach. As an example, in the Patriots’ Week 5 win against the Detroit Lions last year, it was Stevenson in the game running out the clock with nine minutes to go in a 26-0 game, and under three minutes to go in a 29-0 game.
There’s simply no reason a star running back – especially one that is such a key part of his team’s offense – should be taking carries (really, taking hits) in those situations. Elliott is a veteran back the Patriots can trust in those spots (or with the game a little closer, that’s an extreme example) without having to have Stevenson take on extra damage.
What else will Elliott do?
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 11: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrate in the fourth quarter of a game against the Houston Texans at AT&T Stadium on December 11, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Short-yardage will likely be a big part of Elliott’s role in New England, but shouldn’t be the only thing he’s asked to do. He can also be a major help in the passing game.
For years, pass blocking has been a majority underrated part of Elliott’s game.
Between his football IQ, ability to read a defense, play strength, and physicality, he can be a major factor against the blitz. Those who look for these sorts of things will see him make highlight blocks just about every game he plays in. Given the Patriots’ questions at tackle heading into the season, this is a skill the Patriots can and should take advantage of.
Unlike the short-yardage, goal line, and late-game situations though, it’s a bit tougher to figure out how to get Elliott on the field and contributing in passing situations. While he’s a capable receiver, Stevenson is still the best pass-catching back on the Patriots, and throwing the ball to the running back looks like it will still be a regular part of there offense. Likewise, Stevenson is a capable blocker for a running back but isn’t at the level that Elliott is.
One way to square this would to have Stevenson and Elliott alternate drive-by-drive, rather than situationally. That would allow them both to be on the field for passing situations, as well as limit the predictability of play calls by which one is in the game.
The other thing the Patriots could do is employ more ’21 personnel’ or ‘Pony’ formations where both backs are on the field at the same time. That could take on a number of different looks, with both in the backfield or one (likely Stevenson) split out wide. However, this isn’t a look the Patriots have used in camp, and it may not be in there playbook currently. It would have to be designed and installed over the next few weeks, and likely would be something we see more of gradually as the season goes on, rather than being a feature right away (like the Marcus Jones package last year).
Elliott’s impact on Strong and Harris
Jan 16, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) before the wild card game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. (Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)
With Elliott potentially filling so many roles, and Stevenson of course still being the feature back, what will this mean for Strong and Harris? Is this it for them in New England?
Not certainly. In the short-term, they’ll still get reps. Not any many as they potentially would have, but it’s a long season and running back is a very physical position. There will be opportunities, and it will be up to them to make the most of those chances.
Looking at it from a multi-season point of view, Elliott is only signed for this season. Both Strong and Harris are on their rookie deals for two more years after this one. They’ll have another chance to develop and then try to earn bigger roles in 2024.
Within that, there could be a chance for both players to improve this year. Prior to Elliott joining the team it was a very young running back room. With Montgomery working more with the receivers before he got hurt, J.J. Taylor was technically the longest-tenured NFL player in the room having made his debut as a UDFA in 2020. However, he’s played in just 12 NFL games. Next up is Stevenson, who in some ways feels like the veteran even though he’s only entering his third year as a pro. After him are Strong and Harris, last year’s draft picks.
Elliott adds a veteran presence to that group, and a strong one at that. We’ve already highlighted his impressive understanding of the game and vision as a ball carrier. The younger backs on the team should be able to look to him as a resource as they work to improve over the course of this season.
Why not another free agent back?
Running back Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball during a game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Jan. 8, 2023. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
For better or worse, throughout this season Elliott’s signing will be linked to the Jets signing Dalvin Cook. There are a few reasons for that.
Cook, also 28, was viewed as the top back available at this point ahead of Elliott. At one point the Patriots were rumored to be scheduling a free agent visit with him, but that never materialized. Plus, the timing of the two signings set up nicely for those looking to connect the storylines, with Cook’s signing being reported just a few hours after Elliott’s deal.
Why did the Patriots sign Elliott first, rather than going to the negotiating table for Cook? Likely, neither side was what the other side was looking for.
Unlike Elliott, who was coming off of a relatively down year last year, Cook had a strong season. He rushed for 1,173 yards and had another 295 through the air, scoring a total of 10 touchdowns in 17 games. His release was a pure cap casualty, while Elliott’s release at least in part was also due to fit.
Coming off of that, Cook was reportedly looking for a feature or at least lead back role in order to reset his market and try to get a bigger long-term contract next offseason. Realistically, that’s something the Patriots were never going to offer him – regardless of money. They’re high on Stevenson who not only has a similar skillset to Cook but also had comparable numbers last season. There’s a real debate to be had over which is the better player heading into the 2023 season.
The Patriots were never going to essentially ‘demote’ Stevenson for Cook, and even if they had the upgrade would have been minimal. At the same time, Cook likely wasn’t going to sign anywhere he’d be the ‘No. 2’ back, which is probably what would have ended up being the situation in New England. The Patriots wanted/needed a spell back, which Cook didn’t want to be. He’ll likely be the feature back in New York, which is reflected in his contract which is worth up to $8.6 million in 2023.
As for Elliott, he clearly didn’t have as much of a market which may have led to him being more open to the idea. As NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport passed along after Elliott’s signing, “New England loves Rhamondre Stevenson, but they’ve been seeking running back to bang it between the tackles.” That’s Zeke.
The other big name back in the running was Leonard Fournette, who also met with the Patriots as a free agent. His signing would have made sense along some of the same lines as Elliott’s but in terms of skillset he’d overlap a lot with Stevenson. He’d still be the spell back, so that overlap isn’t disqualifying, but it’s possible the Patriots wanted to add a different style of back to their room, which Elliott gives them.
What the Elliott signing is not
Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals during a game at State Farm Stadium on Dec. 12, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The above is all pretty effusive praise of Elliott and the team’s decision to sign him. While that’s warranted given the situation, it’s important to put it in context.
While the Elliott signing is a hit given the current state of the team, it’s not a substitution for some of the potentially higher-impact signings the team had a chance to make but didn’t in previous months. In particular, this relates to DeAndre Hopkins.
Signing Elliott helps this offense become a better version of itself. However, adding a wide receiver like Hopkins would have added a new dimension to the offense entirely. Elliott will help the unit, but he won’t unlock nearly as much as Hopkins would have (and realistically, they could have had both).
By not landing Hopkins, the Patriots were put in a spot where they will still need to lean heavily on their identity as a physical, smashmouth offense that builds around the run game in 2023. With that being their identity, Elliott fits right in.
Should fans be excited about the Patriots signing Elliott?
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 24: Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys reacts after a first down during the first quarter in the game against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium on November 24, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
The short answer to that question is – yes. The Patriots are a better team having signed Elliott than they were before. At the same time, keep in mind his signing won’t fill all of the holes created by some of the misses earlier in the offseason.
Is Elliott the All-Pro back he was in his prime with the Dallas Cowboys? No. But don’t fall for the lazy modern casual fan evaluation belief that players exist in a duality of either ‘an All-Pro’ or ‘he sucks.’ There’s (plenty of) room between those two extremes. Role players are still an important part of team building, and Elliott should fill a valuable role on this team.
He’s an ideal fit for a role the Patriots needed filled, with just under a month to go before the regular season kicks off. Is he the only player that could have filled that role? Probably not. But the Patriots didn’t have such a player on their roster before Monday, and now they do. That’s progress. How much progress? We’ll find out.
