The New England Patriots continue to be involved in rumors around free-agent running back Dalvin Cook, but that doesn’t mean they will actually take the plunge and sign him. Or should they?
New England is officially out of the DeAndre Hopkins sweepstakes, but could still use a potential impact player at an affordable price. Does that mean Bill Belichick might take a shot on Cook, instead?
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There’s a list of factors to consider in the Patriots’ potential pursuit of Cook in free agency…
Dalvin Cook’s On-Field Impact
Running back Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball during a game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Jan. 8, 2023. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Despite being 27 years old with more than 1,500 career touches, Cook remained one of the more explosive and productive backs in football in 2022. He remains a true home-run hitter, as he broke his own career-best long touchdown run with an 81-yard scamper against the Bills. He was one of only six backs in the league with at least three runs of 40-plus yards.
On top of that, there are advanced metrics that point to a back that can still break off big runs with his explosiveness. According to Next Gen Stats, Cook was the third-fastest running back in the league based on literal miles per hour (21.7 mph average). Only the Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker and the Jets’ Breece Hall were faster.
The Patriots have a strong running back group overall, and not necessarily just a one-headed monster with Rhamondre Stevenson. But Cook would add a level of big-play ability that they may not necessarily have. There’s an urgency for the first couple of guys to tackle Cook every time he touches the ball. That’s real impact.
The Patriots’ Running Back Room
Rhamondre Stevenson (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
Despite Cook’s high-end talent, that’s not to take away from what Stevenson accomplished in 2022. Stevenson emerged as one of the hardest backs to tackle in the league, finishing fifth with 24 broken tackles, according to FantasyPros.com.
So, Cook’s speed and explosiveness would make a fine complement for Stevenson’s power and elusiveness. The Patriots also feel good about what they have with second-year pros Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris, both of whom should see a jump in touches in 2023, with or without Cook on the team.
The Contract
Bill Belichick (Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
The biggest obstacle between Cook and the Patriots is likely money. Not the least bit surprising, as that literally just played out with Hopkins and his decision to take the Titans’ more lucrative offer.
It’s likely the Patriots aren’t going to do much with their current cap space, opting to save it for in-season transactions. That’s not the most necessary strategy, considering Belichick can maneuver cap space in a number of different ways, as he famously said. But it’s how he and the Pats run their budgets, and likely the reason they fall short on Cook’s financial ask.
The Running Back Market
Josh Jacobs (Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
Although the Patriots wouldn’t be a safe bet to offer Cook the best contract, it’s possible they can be more competitive than they were with Hopkins, because teams seem reluctant to spend on veteran running backs in general. Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley both didn’t get the franchise tag and remain in contract stalemates with the Raiders and Giants, respectively.
That doesn’t bode well for Cook to find much of an offer on the open market in July. But that could give the Pats a better chance at bringing him in on an extremely low cap number loaded with incentives, like Belichick would want.
The Running Back Position, In General
Dalvin Cook (Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
There’s one obvious reason it’s hard to compare Cook and Hopkins. Do I even need to say it? Wide receivers are more important and higher-paid than running backs these days, and it’s been that way for a while. Alright I said it.
Cook has certainly proven himself to be a high-end playmaker at his position, and that’s why he will definitely be playing somewhere in the NFL by September. The Pats can’t exactly turn their nose up at impact players at this stage, but Cook wouldn’t have the same effect on the offense that Hopkins or another big-time receiver would.
Dalvin Cook Patriots Odds
Dalvin Cook (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
As of Tuesday, the Patriots are the betting favorites to sign Cook at +150, via the DraftKings Sportsbook. That could simply be based on where the money’s going and not on much actual information.
But at the same time, the Titans became a huge favorite to sign Hopkins (it hit -300 at one point) days before they actually signed him. So, betting odds aren’t necessarily something to dismiss out of hand. But if you ask me, I’d bet on the Commanders or Broncos (both +1500) to simply offer him more guaranteed money and that’s that.
