With Sunday’s 112-88 Boston Celtics win over the Philadelphia 76ers, the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals matchup is officially set. For the second year in a row, the Celtics will take on the Miami Heat, who beat the Heat in six games in their ECS series after reaching the playoffs as the eight seed via the play-in tournament. It’s also the third time in the last four years the teams will face each other in the ECF, having met in the Bubble season in 2020.
Last season, the Celtics won the series in seven games, while the Heat took that 2020 series in six. During this past regular season the teams split their four matchups with two wins a side – the Celtics won the first two games and the Heat won the second two, with the most recent coming on Jan. 24. Each team picked up one win at home and one win on the road.
Guards
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 21: Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics handles the ball against Kyle Lowry #7 of the Miami Heat in the fourth quarter in Game Three of the 2022 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 21, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Compared to last year’s series, there’s more change for both teams at the guard spot than any other. That’s due to a combination of factors including roster moves and injuries.
On the Celtics’ side, the big move of the offseason was adding Malcolm Brogdon. He’ll come off the bench in this series, replacing the role Payton Pritchard filled last year. He joins Marcus Smart and Derrick White, who now has a full year of experience with the Celtics under his belt after being acquired at last year’s trade deadline.
Smart has been playing at a high level since the start of the playoffs. He’s averaging 15.8 points per game, which ranks third on the Celtics, while shooting 46.5 percent from the floor. he’s also averaging 5.1 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game, with 1.2 steals. Brogdon and White have both gone through impressive stretches, and are shooting over 40 percent from deep. Brogdon’s 14.8 points per game rank fourth on the team, and White’s 12.8 rank fifth.
The Heat meanwhile will be shorthanded compared to last year’s series. Victor Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in the first round, and is done for the season. Tyler Herro also broke his hand early in the playoffs. He’s been ruled out for Game 1, and it’s expected he’ll miss this entire series.
Both players played key roles both in last year’s series and for the Heat this regular season. In particular, Herro is a big loss. He averaged 14.5 points per game over the first two games of last year’s conference finals before being slowed down by a hamstring injury, and then was Miami’s third-leading scorer this year averaging 20.1 points per game.
Without Herro and Oladipo, more pressure falls on Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent. Lowry began the playoffs dealing with a knee injury, but has been better since. In the series against the Heat, he averaged 12.2 points, 5.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game while shooting 43.4 percent from the floor. The Heat will need him to keep up that level of play, while hoping Strus and or Vincent can up their game to close the gap left by the absenses of Oladipo and Herro.
Advantage: Celtics
Wings
MIAMI, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 21: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat guards Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics during the first quarter at FTX Arena on October 21, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
This is where the real star-power is on both teams. Last year’s series often turned into a duel between Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler, and it’s not crazy to think we could see the same thing this year.
Butler has elevated his game amid the Heat’s injuries, going from averaging 22.9 points per game in the regular season to 31.1 points per game in the playoffs. He’s been incredibly effective, shooting 52.7 percent from the floor and getting to the free throw line 10 times per game. ‘Playoff Jimmy’ seems to only get better the bigger the moment, and has regularly rose to the occasion when the Heat need a superstar performance.
As for Tatum, he’s coming off his masterful 51-point Game 7 performance. He leads the Celtics averaging 28.2 points per game as well as 10.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists.
While those two will play significant roles in deciding this series, they’re not the only factors at the wing spot. The real potential difference-maker in this series is Jaylen Brown, who comes in averaging 24.6 points per game while shooting 54.1 percent from the floor and 47.1 percent from three. If Tatum and Brown can both consistently play at a high level, and Butler essentially has to offset both of them, it’s hard to see how the Heat win this series.
Butler will certainly need help from elsewhere on the roster – most likely the Heat’s bench wings – Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson. Martin in particular was a handful for the Celtics in the series last year, coming off the bench to shoot 48.6 percent from the floor and 46.7 percent from three. He scored 7.3 points in just 15.5 minutes per game. With the injuries to Herro and Oladipo he’s been on the floor more as a hybrid role, and is averaging 27.5 minutes per game in these playoffs.
Robinson is a pure yet streaky shooter, who can impact a game when he gets going. He’s shooting 40.5 percent from the floor and 42.6 percent from three this postseason, averaging eight points per game in 17.6 minutes per night.
Advantage: Celtics
Bigs
MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 29: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat against the Boston Celtics during game seven of the Eastern Conference Final at FTX Arena on May 29, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
If Brown is the player than can swing this series for the Celtics, Bam Adebayo is that player for the Heat. The 6-foot-9, highly-athletic center has averaged 18.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs, while shooting 49.7 percent from the floor.
Last year, the Celtics were able to keep Adebayo relatively in check, although they played with a deeper frontcourt in that series. Grant Williams has fallen out of the Celtics’ playoff rotation, and Daniel Theis is no longer with the team. That leaves Al Horford and Robert Williams as their counters in the paint.
Horford has been inconsistent in the playoffs this year. While he’s had some flashes of being the player he was during the team’s run to the Finals last year, his offensive production is down. Playing 32.1 minutes per game – the fourth-most on the team – he’s averaging just 6.6 points per game on 37.6 percent shooting. However, he is figuring out ways to impact the game other than scoring. He’s grabbed 7.6 rebounds with 2.2 blocks per game.
Robert Williams on the other hand has been excellent. While his per-game numbers are about the same as Horford’s – 6.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game – he’s been much more efficient. He’s put those numbers up in just 21.9 minutes per game, and is shooting 79.2 percent from the floor.
To this point the Celtics have seemingly been (understandably) careful managing Robert Williams’ time on the floor in the playoffs. He’s seventh on the team in minutes per game, at the bottom of the regular rotation. He didn’t begin starting games until Game 6 against Philly. Yet while Horford was a better defensive matchup for Joel Embiid, that advantage is now gone. The Celtics will probably need to either increase Williams’ minutes, or expand the rotation to include a player like Grant Williams, Blake Griffin, or Luke Kornet – even if it’s just briefly to throw different looks at Adebayo.
The Celtics will also need to adjust to the addition of Kevin Love, who was signed by the Heat this February after getting bought out by the Cavs. He especially replaces P.J. Tucker, who started all seven games in the ECF for the Heat last year.
Love has made a minimal impact so far in the playoffs – in 20.6 minutes per game, he’s averaging 7.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game while shooting 36.1 percent from the floor and has scored in double-digits just twice. Stylistically he’s a different player than Tucker, who burned the Celtics at times in last year’s series in ways other than scoring the basketball. The Celtics adjustment may simply be to force the Heat to regularly involve Love offensively, but if he starts hitting shots that could be a problem.
Advantage: Heat
Coaching
MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 25: Head Coach Erik Spoelstra of the Miami Heat reacts against the Boston Celtics during the third quarter in Game Five of the 2022 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals at FTX Arena on May 25, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Coaching played a big role in last year’s series. Erik Spoelstra seemed to press the right buttons at the right times, and the Heat won three of the four closest games of the series by scoring margin.
That was against Ime Udoka. This year, the Celtics sideline is manned by Joe Mazzulla, who has received plenty of attention throughout this playoff run so far. From a lack of in-game adjustments to mismanagement of late-game situations, the first-year coach has given fans and media plenty of chances to second guess. Even Marcus Smart shared after Game 6 he believes Mazzulla is “learning” as the playoffs go on.
So far Mazzulla has beat Quin Snyder – who was hired by the Hawks in late February – and Doc Rivers – who has a history of blowing playoff series. Spoelstra will be far and away his toughest coaching matchup yet. How much has he learned through two rounds that he can apply forwards? That remains to be seen.
Advantage: Heat
