Which quarterbacks helped or hurt their draft stocks over the past month? Time to update our NFL Draft quarterback rankings (USA Today Images)
It’s now been just over a month since we released our initial quarterback rankings for the 2024 NFL Draft class. A lot has happened since then, meaning it’s time for an update.
The first month-plus of the pre-draft process included the All-Star games (ex. Senior Bowl, Shrine Bowl) in late January and early February, and then the NFL Combine over the weekend. The Combine both provided a chance to see the quarterbacks together on the field (although the projected top three picks sat out the on-field portion of the event), as well as get the rumors about how the players are viewed by teams behind the scenes.
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Our new rankings reflect what’s been learned over the last month while still keeping in mind that what the players did on the field is the biggest determining factor in their projections (which is true at any position, not just quarterback). With more exposure to some of the quarterbacks in this year’s class we’re also going to add three spots to our rankings, including 15 quarterbacks instead of 10.
With the Patriots holding the third overall pick, which they’re expected to use on a quarterback, the rankings past QB3 might not matter. Still, with very lucrative trade back options likely on the table, as well as the possibility of doubling up at the quarterback position later on Day 3 (a la Washington with Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins in 2012), it can’t hurt to become familiar with the group as a whole. But of course, we’ll start at the top.
1. Caleb Williams, USC
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 02: Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans looks to pass the ball during the first quarter against the Nevada Wolf Pack at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on September 02, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 1
Yes, there were some rumbling out of the Combine that Jayden Daniels could be building steam to go first overall. But that tends to happen every year around that time – the unquestionable No. 1 pick gets questioned. We did the same thing with Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud last year before Young went 1/1, with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in 2021, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 – it happens just about any year multiple quarterbacks are expected to go in the top five. (It’s also happening at receiver, with some questioning if Malik Nabers could go ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.)
While Daniels’ floor is looking higher than it initially seemed, Williams’ ability to create something from nothing – the most sought-after trait for quarterbacks in the modern NFL game – should win out. He still has the highest ceiling of any QB in this class.
Projection: 1st overall pick
2. Jayden Daniels, LSU
BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA – NOVEMBER 11: Jayden Daniels #5 of the LSU Tigers runs with the ball as Scooby Williams #17 of the Florida Gators falls during the first half at Tiger Stadium on November 11, 2023 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 2
Daniels electing not to get measured at the Combine is slightly concerning given the questions about his build, but assuming he checks the proper boxes at his pro day it will become a non-story. Aside from that, the momentum he started building late in the fall continues to build. The gap between him and Maye still isn’t very big and this order could end up flipping in the draft, but all things neutral not taking into account scheme for fit for a specific teams, Daniels’ experience and elite athleticism providing a higher ceiling give him the edge here.
Projection: Top 3 pick
3. Drake Maye
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 07: Drake Maye #10 of the North Carolina Tar Heels looks to pass against the Syracuse Orange during the first half of their game at Kenan Memorial Stadium on October 07, 2023 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 3
It certainly sounded like Maye did himself plenty of favors in Indianapolis without even stepping on the field. Multiple outlets reported he was among the best interviews at the quarterback position. He still provides the prototypical build and arm talent that teams covet at the quarterback position. There’s no reason he should go beyond the third pick.
Projection: Top 3 pick
4. Michael Penix, Washington
TUCSON, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 30: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies throws a pass during the second half of the NCAAF game against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium on September 30, 2023 in Tucson, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 4
I know I’m in the minority here at this point, with the league clearly high on Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy (who we’ll get to in a second). Still, I’m sticking to my guns and trusting my eyes on this one. The way the ball explodes out of Penix’s hand is rare, and he pairs that throw power with terrific downfield accuracy. Add in what he’s shown as a leader and he looks like somebody who can be a franchise quarterback in the right situation.
The biggest knock against Penix was injuries, but he passed his physical testing at the Combine. That doesn’t mean his history of knee injuries should be totally discarded, but they’re now much less of a factor (although I wouldn’t rule out teams still being nervous about taking him int he first round for that reason).
In addition to clearing the medical testing, Penix also had the best throwing session of any quarterback in Indy. His issues against pressure are real, but behind a good offensive line and/or with the right coaching he has the tools to be a true playmaker quarterback at the next level.
Projection: Top 40 pick
5. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN – SEPTEMBER 23: J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Michigan Wolverines runs for a second half first down while playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan Stadium on September 23, 2023 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 6
J.J. McCarthy is going to be a first-round pick. At this point, it seems pretty clear that is going to happen. Like Penix though, he still seems more situation-dependent than the typical first-round quarterback. His game remains raw, as we saw from his issues throwing to his left at the Combine.
If he lands somewhere where he can sit for at least the majority of his first year and continue to develop behind the scenes, he certainly has the natural athletic ability and size to become a legitimate starting NFL quarterback. However, if he has to play right away – especially on a team that doesn’t have a ton of talent on offense around him to support him like he had in Michigan – things could get off the rails quickly.
Projection: 1st round pick
6. Bo Nix, Oregon
LUBBOCK, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 09: Bo Nix #10 of the Oregon Ducks runs with the ball during the second half of the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium on September 09, 2023 in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 5
McCarthy moving up the ranking is more a byproduct of Nix moving down than anything else. Nix looked like the kind of quarterback that should shine in a controlled environment like Senior Bowl practices or the NFL Combine. Yet he failed to impress in either, which is notable. The biggest question with Nix coming into the process was how he’d do outside of the unique Oregon offense that elevated his game the last two years, and so far the results haven’t been promising.
There are enough quarterback-needy teams that his experience alone could see a team reach for him in the first round, especially a team with a Shanahan system that can keep things simple for him like they were at Oregon, but that’s as strong as the argument gets for him not falling until Day 2.
Projection: Top 50 pick
7. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 14: Spencer Rattler #7 of the South Carolina Gamecocks runs with the ball in the first half during the game against the Florida Gators at Williams-Brice Stadium on October 14, 2023 in Columbia, South Carolina. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 9
Rattler got a lot of attention after a strong Senior Bowl performance. In particular, his mechanics look very clean, which is key for a will-be 24-year-old quarterback who doesn’t have as big of a development window as others. Size will remain a main concern about his makeup but he checked in better than expected at the Combine at 6-foot, 211 pounds. He’s still a pure project passer, but is looking more and more like the top project passer in this class.
Projection: Fringe top-100
8. Joe Milton, Tennessee
TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA – OCTOBER 21: Joe Milton III #7 of the Tennessee Volunteers looks to pass against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Previous raking: 7
After not getting many chances to show off his arm strength at the Senior Bowl, Milton unleashed the cannon at the Combine. Still, his impressive downfield and out-route throws came after he sailed a few slants and crosses, giving a pretty full look at the Joe Milton Experience. Like Rattler, Milton will be a 24 year old rookie which limits his development window. Still with big plays as important as ever there should certainly be at least a few teams that see taking a chance on harnessing Milton’s rushing ability and arm strength as worth an early Day 3 pick.
Projection: Early Day 3
9. Michael Pratt, Tulane
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – SEPTEMBER 02: Michael Pratt #7 of the Tulane Green Wave in action against the University of Southern Alabama at Yulman Stadium on September 02, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 8
Pratt looks like he has all the tools to be a very capable NFL backup quarterback, but hasn’t done much to suggest he has any ceiling beyond that. Having a good backup quarterback is still important in the NFL which should get Pratt drafted, but he hasn’t done much to ‘wow’ evaluators going back to the end of the 2023 season.
Projection: Middle Day 3
10. Carter Bradley, South Alabama
STILLWATER, OK – SEPTEMBER 16: Quarterback Carter Bradley #2 of the South Alabama Jaguars looks for a receiver but keeps the ball to pick up a first down on third-and-five against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second quarter at Boone Pickens Stadium on September 16, 2023 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: NR
Bradley’s strong performance as the Senior Bowl was one of the surprises of that week. He’s got good size for the position (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) and was a multi-year starter for the Jaguars. He’s another intriguing backup option.
Projection: Late Day 3
11. Jordan Travis, Florida State
TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 07: Quarterback Jordan Travis #13 of the Florida State Seminoles scrambles with the ball during the second half of their game against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 07, 2023 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: 10
Travis, who suffered a significant leg injury late last season, told reporters at the Combine he expects to be cleared by May. That should certainly help his case. However, for a quarterback whose game relies heavily on mobility teams may be weary about investing too highly in him due to that injury.
Projection: Late Day 3
12. Devin Leary, Kentucky
ATHENS, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 7: Devin Leary #13 of the Kentucky Wildcats drops back to pass during the first quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium on October 7, 2023 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: NR
Leary is an interesting prospect. He had a breakout hear in 2021, then started strong in 2022 before suffering a season-ending leg injury early. Last year he returned and transferred to Kentucky but simply wasn’t the same player. He’ll now head to the NFL as a 25-year-old rookie. Leary did help himself with a good throwing session at the Combine, on a day when most of the quarterbacks struggled.
If a team really loves Leary’s 2021 tape and chalks last year up to recovering from injury, that plus his Combine performance could be enough to be deserving of a flier pick late in the draft.
Projection: Late Day 3/Priority UDFA
13. Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
SOUTH BEND, INDIANA – NOVEMBER 18: Sam Hartman #10 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish passes for a first down in the first half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Stadium on November 18, 2023 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: NR
With 57 college starts under his belt, Hartman’s experience alone will get him into an NFL camp as a 25-year-old rookie. Beyond that though, he hasn’t shown much during the pre-draft process after a disappointing 2023 season for the Fighting Irish.
Projection: Priority UDFA
14. Austin Reed, Western Kentucky
COLUMBUS, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 16: Austin Reed #16 of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers throws a pass in the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on September 16, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: NR
Reed has a number of similarities to the last quarterback drafted out of Western Kentucky. His production has been off the charts after he transferred up from Division-II West Florida in 2022. Still there’s questions about how his game will transfer, given the risks that he takes and an elongated release that doesn’t generate as much power as it should.
Projection: UDFA
15. Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
COLUMBUS, OHIO – OCTOBER 07: Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa #3 of the Maryland Terrapins throws the ball during the second quarter of a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on October 07, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)
Previous ranking: NR
Tua’s brother heads to the NFL after breaking Curtis Painter’s record for the most passing yards in a career in Big Ten history with 11,256. However arm strength an durability are both concerns for Tagovailoa, who stands 5-foot-10, 200 pounds.
Projection: UDFA
Next up
Oct 7, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jason Bean (9) drops back during the second half against the UCF Knights at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
16. Jason Bean, Kansas
17. Andrew Peasley, Wyoming
18. Spencer Sanders, Ole Miss
19. Kedon Slovis, BYU
20. Brennan Armstrong, NC State
