Draft week is finally here! After months of projections and speculation, the wait is almost over!
We’ll kick off draft week – and the final Mock Draft Monday of the year – with our final Patriots seven-round mock draft of this draft cycle. At this point we have as much information as we’ll get, as we make projections ahead to the Patriots’ upcoming draft decisions (reminder, my mock drafts are about predicting what the Patriots will do rather than just sharing what I would do personally).
—Everything Eliot Wolf said about the Patriots’ big three needs during his pre-draft press conference
—There’s already a favorite to win the Patriots’ starting left tackle job
—The Patriots are ‘open for business’ heading into the NFL Draft
Last year, our final mock draft yielded two eventual Patriots draft picks. We got Keion White in the second round (although in different draft slots due to trades) and DeMario Douglas in the sixth round.
Can we do it again? It’s time to compile everything we’ve learned in the last eight months, from the college football season itself to the showcase games, Combine, visits, Eliot Wolf’s recent pre-draft press conference, general reports and more.
Let’s read the tea leaves, and check out Patriots Mock Draft 3.0…
Round 1, Pick 3:
QB Drake Maye, UNC
CLEMSON, SOUTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 18: Drake Maye #10 of the North Carolina Tar Heels passes the ball during the second quarter against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium on November 18, 2023 in Clemson, South Carolina. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)
This has been my projection all the way through the offseason, and I’m sticking to it. Despite all the noise around the Patriots getting creative, I think when it’s time to make a call the most obvious solution – taking the best quarterback available – is the right one.
Of course, this is banking on Jayden Daniels from LSU going second overall to Washington. Recent reporting and Vegas odds trends have hinted that move may not be as much of a guarantee as was recently suggested. Still, I believe that’s the plan. If it’s not, just swap Daniels for Maye. Either way, I think the Patriots take the best quarterback on the board. Fans should be happy either way.
Trade!
Eliot Wolf appeared Thursday morning for a pre-NFL draft press conference at Gillette Stadium. (Photo by Bob Socci)
Patriots get:
— 48th overall pick (2nd round)
— 114th overall pick (4th round)
— 116th overall pick (4th round)Jaguars get:
— 34th overall pick (2nd round)
Asked about the status of trade conversations during his pre-draft press conference, Eliot Wolf told reporters that “we’re drafting to develop the team. The more picks we have the better.”
‘More picks’ means moving down, but the alure of one of the top quarterbacks should prevent the Patriots from doing so at third overall. Instead they can move back from 34, and rather than adding a top 100 pick they go for quantity and add two picks at the top of the fourth.
This trade is modeled after one the Patriots made with the Bengals in 2021. The Patriots were on the other side of that one, moving up to take Christian Barmore.
Round 2, Pick 48 (from JAX):
WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina
ATHENS, GEORGIA – SEPTEMBER 16: Xavier Legette #17 of the South Carolina Gamecocks makes a reception as Malaki Starks #24 of the Georgia Bulldogs defends during the first half at Sanford Stadium on September 16, 2023 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
After quarterback, the Patriots’ next two biggest perceived needs are tackle and wide receiver. Based on the way the Patriots have operated this offseason, it seems like the feeling internally is wide receiver is the more pressing need of the two.
At his press conference last week, Eliot Wolf shared his belief in the current offensive line group multiple times, and highlighted free agent signing Chuks Okorafor as a potential starting left tackle. Meanwhile, the team tried to swing big for a wide receiver (Calvin Ridley) in free agency but came up short.
Wolf was asked for his assessment of the wide receiver position, specifically the ‘X’ spot last week. “I think we have players that can line up and play at ‘X.’ Do we have players that on a three-by-one can beat the backside coverage every single time? I’m not sure if we have that just yet,” he said.
It’ll be tough to get that exact kind of player at 48 (or at 34 for that matter, especially if AD Mitchell from Texas doesn’t fall that far). Still, Legette has the upside to potentially fill that role. Right now he wins more with physicality at 6-foot-1, 221 pounds, excelling at the catch point and after the catch. In that sense he can win one-on-one regularly, and if his route running improves he can be a real multi-faceted offensive weapon. At the very least, he could be a highly-effective ‘Z’ who could make it easier for players like Kendrick Bourne or K.J. Osborn to play as a small ‘X.’
Having run a 4.39-second 40 with a 40-inch vertical at his size, Legette falls squarely in the mold of receiver the Packers often took while Wolf was in Green Bay. If he is in fact on their radar, this is where they’d need to take him to land him.
Round 3, Pick 68:
OL Brandon Coleman, TCU
Dec 31, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; TCU Horned Frogs offensive lineman Brandon Coleman (77) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
This was a tough call, between Coleman and Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher. However, Coleman gets the nod for his versatility. He started all 15 games at left tackle for TCU during their run to the National Championship in 2022, then split his time between left tackle and left guard this past season.
At 6-foot-4, 313 pounds with 34 5/8-inch arms, Coleman is built like an NFL tackle and can move like one too. He needs to work on using his size more effectively and cut down on penalties, but those are both coachable issues.
While the Patriots should be looking for, at the very least, a developmental left tackle, guard may be a more long-term need too. Notably, Wolf excluded Cole Strange when discussing the team’s returning offensive linemen this week. The Patriots could draft Coleman to initially develop him at left tackle, and then if they need to move him inside to left guard if that situation presents itself either due to Okorafor proving to be a solid starting left tackle and/or Coleman not developing in that spot.
Round 4, Pick 103:
RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
MADISON, WISCONSIN – SEPTEMBER 02: Braelon Allen #0 of the Wisconsin Badgers stiff arms Clevester Hines III #9 of the Buffalo Bulls on a 37 yard run in the third quarter against the Buffalo Bulls at Camp Randall Stadium on September 02, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Historically, the Patriots have trended towards highly-productive running backs in the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, both Eliot Wolf’s Packers and Alex Van Pelt’s Browns utilized massive running backs who can dish out as much or more punishment on a defense than they get.
Yes, the Patriots already have one such back in Rhamondre Stevenson. But, those other systems used multiple backs in tandem (Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, later A.J. Dillon in Green Bay, and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland). Plus, Stevenson is entering a contract year.
Enter Allen, a 6-foot-1, 235-pound back who rushed for 3,494 yards (at 5.9 yards per carry) with 35 touchdowns in 35 games over the last three seasons at Wisconsin. Allen is a violent runner who is willing to take on would-be tacklers, and given his size and motor he’d be especially effective if the NFL really enforced the new hip-drop tackle rules. While not a plus receiver, he can handle basic pass-catching responsibilities and has shown to be a solid pass blocker. Allen is also one of the youngest players in this draft, having just turned 20 in January.
Round 4, Pick 114 (from JAX):
S Sione Vaki, Utah
Dec 2, 2022; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Utah Utes safety Sione Vaki (28) in the first half of the Pac-12 Championship at Allegiant Stadium. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Vaki is one of the more unique players in this draft. Not only does he play all over the secondary on defense, he also pitched in as a running back for Utah this year when injuries cut into the Utes’ depth in the backfield.
In the NFL Vaki will mainly be a defensive player. A solid tackler, big hitter, and instinctive player his best role is probably as a nickel safety but he has experience playing as a slot cornerback and split free safety as well. In that sense, he could fill the role vacated by the departure of Myles Bryant on defense.
On the other side of the ball, Vaki’s two-way background isn’t the same as a player like Marcus Jones, who was always a part of the game plan in both phases in college. Vaki was more of an emergency fill in. So while he’ll likely never feature as a running back in the NFL he can provide depth, something the Patriots have struggled with at the running back position in recent years.
Overall, the Patriots could have a three-phase player in Vaki, given how well his skillset projects to translate into the new NFL kickoff format. They met with him during the pre-draft process.
Round 4, Pick 116 (from JAX):
EDGE Gabriel Murphy, UCLA
STANFORD, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 21: Gabriel Murphy #11 of the UCLA Bruins sacks quarterback Ashton Daniels #14 of the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Stanford, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
While most of the NFL is focused on projected first-round UCLA pass rusher Laiatu Latu, Murphy quietly had a very strong season playing opposite him for the Bruins. He recorded 16 tackles for a loss and eight sacks in his third full season as a starter (two at UCLA, one at North Texas).
At 6-foot-2, 247 pounds Murphy is slightly undersized but plays bigger than he’s listed. He may end up being a situational pass rusher in the NFL, but for a Patriots team with most of their pass rushers on expiring contracts, drafting that kind of player in the fourth round would make sense. As a run defender Murphy is more of a penetrator than an edge setter, so whether or not he’d play on early downs in New England would come down to just how aggressive they want their edge players to play in their new more aggressive defensive style.
The Patriots met with Murphy during the pre-draft process.
Round 5, Pick 137:
OL Zak Zinter, Michigan
Dec 31, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive lineman Zak Zinter (65) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Zinter, who is from North Andover, MA and went to BB&N in Cambridge for high school, was on track to be a top-50 pick and had a chance to be among the top interior offensive linemen selected in this draft. That was before he suffered a broken tibia and fibula in late November – an injury that ended his season and held him out of the pre-draft process.
An injury that significant is going to raise questions about what kind of player Zinter will be on the other side. That, naturally, moves him down draft boards. The Patriots took a similar shot on another Michigan player when they drafted linebacker Cam McGrone in the fifth round shortly after he tore his ACL.
At the same time, Zinter was a higher-level prospect prior to his injury than McGrone was. A three-year starter and team captain at right guard, Zinter was a key part of two Joe Moore Award-winning offensive lines in 2021 and 2022 and then was named an All-American in 2023. A smart, technically-sound, powerful blocker, he exclusively played guard at the college level but at 6-foot-6, 309 pounds with 33 1/2-inch arms some believe he could play tackle if needed at the NFL level as well.
Guard certainly isn’t an immediate need for the Patriots after drafting three interior offensive linemen last year. That being said, they could draft Zinter not needing him to play right away, and allow him to fully heal from his injury. Once he’s healthy, if he can get back to being the player he was at Michigan he’d likely compete for a starting guard job.
Trade!
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf during the NFL Scouting Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Patriots get:
— 209th overall pick (6th round)
— 213th overall pick (6th round)Rams get:
— 180th pick (6th round)
Once again, the Patriots move back to add to their total pick number. This is based on a trade between the Patriots and Colts in 2020, when the Patriots were the team moving up to select Mike Onwenu.
Round 6, Pick 193 (from JAX):
WR Bub Means, Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 4: Bub Means #0 of the Pittsburgh Panthers makes a catch in front of Renardo Green #8 of the Florida State Seminoles for a 9-yard touchdown reception in the second quarter during the game at Acrisure Stadium on November 4, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
Last week, Wolf mentioned that the team might “take some chances on height, weight, speed [players] in the later rounds.” Basically, project players. That starts here.
The Patriots double up at receiver by taking Means, who is a project at the ‘X’ position. Means ran a 4.43-second 40 at 6-foot-1, 212 pounds and recorded the third fastest running speed – 21.7 MPH – during the route-running portion of the Combine.
Means flashed big play potential as a downfield threat at Pitt, at his best off the line of scrimmage and at the catch point. He also showed growth as a threat after the catch in 2023. However, his overall production was capped by an overall dysfunctional Pitt offense. In a draft full of high-production receivers, that pushes him down the board.
Still, the Patriots should have the best idea of any team of what Means can do. His positional coach at Pitt, Tiquan Underwood, is now the Patriots’ assistant wide receivers coach. If Underwood gives him a positive review, they could see him as a value pick at this point in the draft.
Round 6, Pick 209 (from LAR):
OT Travis Glover, Georgia State
Oct 19, 2022; Boone, North Carolina, USA; Georgia State Panthers quarterback Darren Grainger (3) throws a pass as offensive tackle Travis Glover (73) blocks the rush of Appalachian State Mountaineers linebacker Kevon Haigler (36) during the second half at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Glover was a fast riser during the pre-draft process. He stood out at the Hula Bowl, doing enough to earn himself a late invite to the Senior Bowl the next week. The Patriots met with him at both, and then hosted him for a top-30 visit. They’re definitely interested.
After redshirting as a true freshman, Glover started five seasons at Georgia State. Three of those – including last year – were at left tackle, one was at right tackle, and one was split between right tackle and left guard. He projects to be a four spot player in the NFL at 6-foot-6, 338 pounds (his measurements from the Hula Bowl). Right now his game is all power, and he plays with a mean streak. From there, it’ll be up to the Patriots coaches to develop him into an NFL lineman.
Round 7, Pick 231
TE Devin Culp, Washington
BOULDER, CO – NOVEMBER 20: Tight end Devin Culp #83 of the Washington Huskies is hit by safety Isaiah Lewis #23 of the Colorado Buffaloes after a fourth quarter catch during a game at Folsom Field on November 20, 2021 in Boulder, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Culp is an athletic tight end that has flashed some high-level receiving ability. The emphasis there though is on the word ‘flashed.’ His tape pairs some real circus catches with tough drops.
At 6-foot-3, 231 pounds Culp ran a 4.47-second 40, and pairs that straight-line speed with solid change of direction ability and a knack for making plays after the catch. He doesn’t offer much as a blocker, and may be seen by some teams as a big slot receiver rather than a tight end.
This is another case of a player being drafted more for athleticism than football skill. Culp worked with current Patriots wide receivers coach Tyler Hughes last year at Washington, where he was a three-year starter, so the Patriots will be more familiar with his game than other teams in the draft. If the Patriots want a project pure receiving tight end, Culp would be a target.
