Last week was a better one for the New England Patriots after two blowouts, but they still came up short of their ultimate goal in a 21-17 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. With their losing streak now sitting at three games the team returns home and will try to get back in the win column in a divisional matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
Beating the Bills hasn’t been an easy task for the Patriots since Tom Brady’s departure. Since 2020 Buffalo is 6-1 against the Patriots (including the 2021 playoff game), with New England’s lone win coming in a massive wind storm in Buffalo in 2001.
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In particular, the Patriots have struggled to slow down Buffalo’s offense. In the seven meetings since 2020 the Bills are averaging 30.1 points per game, while the Patriots are at just 16.4 points per game in those matchups.
Timely mistakes have also compounded the Patriots issues against Buffalo in recent years. Turnovers, dropped interceptions, and not playing through the whistle have all happened at key moments in recent games.
Earlier this week, offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien talked about how thin the margin for error is for teams to win in the NFL. It’s a margin the Patriots haven’t been operating within in recent weeks, as well as against Buffalo in recent years.
Where do the Patriots need to be better to ensure a close game with the Bills at Gillette Stadium this Sunday. Let’s get into that and more in this week’s What To Watch For…
Slowing down Stephon Diggs
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 28: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown as J.C. Jackson #27 of the New England Patriots gives chase during the first half at Gillette Stadium on December 28, 2020 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images)
When talking about the Bills’ offense many go right to quarterback Josh Allen. We’ll get to Allen in a bit, but it’s worth starting with wide receiver Stephon Diggs, who has been as much of a headache for the Patriots as any player the past few years.
Diggs has accounted for the heavy majority of the Bills’ passing production against the Patriots the last three years. When targeting Diggs in games against the Patriots, Josh Allen’s passer rating is 125.6. To all other receivers it’s 93.4. Still good, but not nearly in the same category.
Some of Diggs’ best games in that stretch came during J.C. Jackson‘s first stint in New England, highlighted by Diggs three-touchdown game in December 2020. Last year the Patriots tried a few different coverages for Diggs, but with Jackson back in the fold following a trade and other cornerbacks banged up, it seems logical that would be the matchup again.
Once again this year, Diggs is the driving force of the Bills’ offense. He has more than twice as many catches than the next closest player on Buffalo’s roster (49 to Gabe Davis’ 21) and almost twice as many receiving yards (620 to Davis’ 341, with no other player over 140).
Will the Patriots focus their defense on stopping Diggs, and try to make Allen beat them with secondary weapons? It’s something he has proven he can do (the name Isaiah McKenzie comes to mind), but still may be the best course of action for the Patriots in this game.
Continue to test Josh Allen’s patience
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 11: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills scrambles with the football during the second quarter of the NFL game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 11, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Josh Allen’s biggest weakness is his impatience. When teams play him conservatively he has a tendency to still hunt for big plays, which can cost him. No player in football has turned the ball over more since 2020 than Allen, who has 60 giveaways (45 interceptions, 15 lost fumbles) in 55 games. That’s six more than the next closest player (Derek Carr).
That’s the book the Patriots have played Allen on in recent years. Yet against New England, Allen has shown an increased level of patience. Of those 60 turnovers, just three have occurred against the Patriots (two interceptions, one fumble).
Granted, the Patriots have had chances for more. J.C. Jackson dropped a potentially game-changing interception in the 2021 game in Foxborough, and Kyle Dugger had a similar play last year.
Maybe Allen just locks in against the Patriots. There’s nothing they can do about that. But they should continue to test his willingness to methodically move the ball down the field. And if and when he does throw them one, they need to catch it.
Beware of the second half clock killer
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 10: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick looks at his notes during the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium on September 10, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
That thing about being patient and forcing Josh Allen to move the ball down the field methodically? While it is true for most of the game, if there’s one time the Patriots will want to take a shot on being aggressive, it’s in the third quarter.
Excluding the playoff blowout in 2021, some of these Patriots-Bills games have been closer than the final score may indicate. A big reason for that is that in all five of Buffalo’s regular season wins, the offense has been able to put together clock-killing second-half drives to limit the Patriots’ ability to come back. These have often turned one-score games into two-score games, while chewing up significant time. Here’s a look at some of the drives in question…
The Bills also had two near game-killing drives in the 2021 snow game, with a pair of 11-play marches in the fourth quarter. however, both ended without points. Still, they’ve shown an ability to ice games against the Patriots the way they can’t against other teams.
So, how do these last two points square? Forcing Allen’s patience while simultaneously not going into bend-don’t-break mode? It’s situational. Early in the game don’t allow big plays, and see if Allen gets sloppy. But things change if the Patriots are trailing after halftime. At that point, it’s time to turn up the intensity and now allow the Bills to put the game away by milking the clock.
This is where one of the Patriots’ biggest 2023 weaknesses could show up. Starting strong is a must in this game, refusing the Bills an early lead. The Patriots haven’t been able to do that against other opponents this year, but if there was a week to do it this is it.
Build on last week’s success on the ground
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 15: Amik Robertson #21 of the Las Vegas Raiders pursues Ezekiel Elliott #15 of the New England Patriots during the third quarterat Allegiant Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
After two relatively non-competitive weeks, the Patriots’ ground game bounced back with a solid showing last week in Las Vegas. The Patriots ran for 83 yards at a clip of 4.4 yards per carry, and their two rushing touchdowns doubled the season total to that point.
This week, the Patriots should try to build on that momentum, and should have a shot to do so. While the Bills’ defensive front is often referred to as one of the best in the league, that’s in terms of rushing the passer. Buffalo has struggled against the run, and comes into the week ranked 31st in the NFL allowing 5.4 yards per carry. They’re particularly vulnerable up the middle, allowing 4.4 yards per play on runs behind the center (24th in the NFL), 5.4 yards per carry on runs off left guard (28th) and 7.8 yards per carry on runs behind the right guard (league-worst).
On top of that, the Bills may be down one of their best run stoppers in this game. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver hasn’t practiced yet this week, and head coach Sean McDermott made it sound on Thursday like he’ll be a game-time decision on Sunday.
How can the Patriots take advantage of this? Building on the more complex run designs the team used last week would be a good start. More looks for Ezekiel Elliott, who looked as explosive last week as he has all season, would also make sense. After spending a month of training camp unsigned, Elliott certainly looks to be fully in game shape a month into the season.
The other thing the Patriots can do this week is expand the Malik Cunningham package that debuted this week. While Cunningham still isn’t ready for a full-time quarterback role, two weeks of working on plays specifically tailored to having him under center (or in shotgun) should have those formations game-ready.
If the Patriots can run the ball, they can keep the clock running, shorten the game, and keep the Bills offense off the field. It’s a big ‘if,’ but if the Patriots want to flip the tables in this game, that would be where it starts.
