The Patriots’ chances in the AFC Playoff Picture still feel distressingly small, but they got some help on Sunday.

Three key contenders in the Pats’ way for playoff positioning lost in Week 13. The Miami Dolphins dropped a 33-17 decision to the San Francisco 49ers, the New York Jets stumbled late to lose 27-22 to the Minnesota Vikings, and the Los Angeles Chargers have now lost three of four after coming up short, 27-20, against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have won three in a row after starting 2-7. As a result, the 6-6 Patriots sit just behind the 7-5 Jets in the seventh seed in the AFC.

The Pats can still take care of their own business and likely land one of the three Wild Card seeds, but they’ll need more help from the Jets in order to pass them. New England holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over New York, and also has L.A. (6-6) beat by way of conference record (5-2 vs 4-3).

Check out the AFC Playoff Picture as it stands entering Week 14 below.

It’s probably going to be too hard for the Patriots to catch any of the top-6 teams, so they’re looking at a three-way race between themselves, the Jets, and the Chargers for the seventh seed. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills (9-3) got enough help around the conference to jump to the No. 1 seed, since they beat the Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) earlier in the season and have taken care of business in out-of-division AFC games with wins over the Titans, Ravens, Steelers, and Browns.

Never mind the Patriots’ lackluster recent performance, what could ultimately keep them on the outside looking in at the AFC Playoffs is their schedule. There’s little hope they can beat the Buffalo Bills on the road in Week 18, especially if playoff positioning is on the line. The Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) are surging and coming off a huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs, so they look like they’ll be tough for the Patriots to outscore in Week 16.

Additionally, Josh McDaniels and the Raiders are playing better lately, and Bill Belichick has historically struggled to beat his former assistants. The Dolphins have more offensive firepower and are better coached on that side of the ball, so a defensive slip-up could spell doom for the Patriots in that Week 17 matchup. The Arizona Cardinals will be coming off a bye next Monday night and have one of the most talented running quarterbacks in the league in Kyler Murray.

The Patriots might need to win four of those five games to have enough to squeeze into that seventh seed. That’s if they don’t get help from the Jets or Chargers. What makes even that a tough proposition is the Chargers have an easier schedule the rest of the way (Dolphins, Titans, Colts, Rams, Broncos).

So, the real help may have to come from the Chargers, for both the Pats and Jets. The latter’s remaining schedule (Bills, Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks, Dolphins) is not as winnable as it may seem for them, when you consider their quarterback situation. And it’s easy to forget that the NFL is a week-to-week league, and the Patriots aren’t necessarily going to play as poorly as they did against the Bills last week on Monday in Arizona, or at any point in the stretch run.

Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; The New England Patriots line up against the Buffalo Bills in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday night’s loss to the Bills certainly put to rest any hope of the Patriots hanging in there with the best teams, which means that even if they sneak into the seventh seed, they’re probably looking at a road date with the Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals. Just have to hope they can avoid a total embarrassment like in 2021, if it gets to that point.

Realistically, the Patriots have an uphill climb to the playoffs. But technically, they’re still in it. Let’s see how they, the Chargers, and the Jets perform going forward.

Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Have a news tip, question, or comment for Matt? Yell at him on Twitter @mattdolloff and follow him on Instagram @realmattdolloff. Check out all of Matt’s content here.