The New England Patriots closed out the 2023 calendar with a triller. Sunday’s New Year’s Eve day matchup with the Buffalo Bills was one of the team’s wildest, most unpredictable games of the year, which they ended up losing 27-21.
For the second year in a row, the matchup between these two teams in Orchard Park began with a kick return touchdown – and only got wilder from there. The Patriots turned the ball over three times in the first quarter and four times in their first six drives.
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After combining for just 86 total yards in the first quarter with just three completed passes and no third down conversions, the two teams stepped it up in the second quarter. Despite the Patriots’ turnover issues, it was just a one-score game (20-14 Buffalo) at halftime.
In the second half it became much more of a drag-it-out battle, and while the Patriots hit a couple of big plays they couldn’t string anything together offensively despite the defense remaining competitive. In that regard, it felt a lot like the majority of the games this team has played in 2023.
What did we learn from the Patriots’ penultimate game of the season and final game of the 2023 calendar year? Let’s take a look…
Blitzes, blitzes, blitzes
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots reacts to a call during the second half of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)
Why was this game so all over the place? A big part of the reason may have been how much both teams were blitzing each other. At first glance, both teams may have had a blitz rate approaching 50 percent in the first half of the game.
With both teams running ‘boom or bust’ defenses, there were plenty of boom or bust offensive plays as well. Each quarterback struggled under pressure, which compounded the issue.
We’ll get more into how the blitz impacted each team individually. But the aggressive pressure from both teams overall seemed to be a driving force in the way the game played out.
Patriots contain Josh Allen again
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Deatrich Wise Jr. #91 of the New England Patriots sacks Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills during the first quarter of a game at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)
Back in Week 7 the Patriots ran and executed an effective game plan against Bills quarterback Josh Allen, mostly involving coverage rotations. Their plan this week was different, but also effective.
The Patriots got in Allen’s face early and often, and it led to struggles as a passer. Allen was clearly sped up, and misfired to open receivers multiple times in the first half.
In the end, Allen finished 15-of-30 for 169 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. His stat line ended up being similar to the numbers he posted in the infamous 2021 ‘wind game’ in Buffalo, when he went 15-of-30 for 145 yards with a touchdown.
At the same time, the Patriots, for the most part, limited the impact Allen made with his legs. He ran a season-high 11 times but totaled just 44 rushing yards, making it one of his least efficient rushing games of the season.
Where the Patriots couldn’t stop Allen though was on the goal line. He had two QB sneaks for touchdowns, which ended up being a massive difference in the game.
If there’s a minor silver lining in this game and this season for the Patriots, it’s that they may have finally started to crack the code on Allen, who has given them fits for the last three years. It will be interesting to see how they build on these two solid performances against him when they face the Bills again next year.
Alex Austin’s first INT
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Alex Austin #28 of the New England Patriots intercepts a pass intended for Dalton Kincaid #86 of the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
Rookie cornerback Alex Austin was originally drafted by the Bills in the seventh-round back in the spring, but after a stop with the Texans ended up signing with the Patriots in early November. Austin has played an increased role the last few weeks, and on Sunday grabbed his first career interception picking off a Josh Allen deep ball.
It was an impressive play by Austin, who originally bluffed coverage to the middle of the field before turning his hips and getting over to the sideline to make the contested grab. After the game, Austin credited the coaching staff for helping him pick up on the read.
“I’ve got to give a shoutout to the defense and the coaches,” he said. “That’s a play we were talking about all week.”
Third boundary cornerback will be a spot the Patriots need to fill next year. Right now, Austin is making a strong case to be back in camp competing for that job in 2024.
Points off turnovers
Buffalo Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas (31) scores on this interception against New England. It was Douglas’s second interception of the game. The Bills beat the Patriots 27-21. (Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle/USA Today Network)
Despite the score, this was another game where the Patriots’ defense did its part. 20 of the Bills’ 27 points came off of turnovers. Of Buffalo’s four scoring drives, three were 24 yards or shorter and two only lasted four plays. The Bills only went the length of the field to score once, on the opening drive of the second half.
Consider this more evidence that the Patriots’ defense is a more competitive unit than their record indicates. There are certainly some moves around the edges to make this offseason, but the team should feel comfortable investing the heavy majority of its assets into the offensive side of the ball.
Bailey Zappe’s turnover-heavy performance
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Bailey Zappe #4 of the New England Patriots throws a pass during the second quarter of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
In one sense, everybody will see what they wanted to see in Bailey Zappe’s performance on Sunday. Detractors will point to his three interceptions, while his supporters will point to the way he bounced back from his early picks, managed the pressure in the pocket, and made some plays with his legs either throwing on the run or outright running.
If this were a preseason game or even an early regular season game, there might be some truth to that. But the reality is, the defense of a quarterback starting with ‘well, after he threw his third interception…’ kind of renders whatever follows that open irrelevant.
Zappe certainly maneuvers the pocket well, and teams do need to be aware of his threat as a scrambler. Outside of open rushing lanes though, he’s still struggling to make plays with his arm consistently enough once he does escape pressure.
On his first interception, Zappe was too late getting the ball to Mike Gesicki, who was blanketed in coverage. The second came on missed timing on a DeVante Parker slant route – something that has been an issue for the Patriots going back to when Mac Jones was under center. Zappe said after the game that play was a misread by him, and should have been checked down to DeMario Douglas. The third was tougher to tell as Zappe threw quick against the blitz to Jalen Reagor, who was still running up the field. Both players indicated after the game it was a communication issue.
Overall, consistency is a major issue for Zappe. There are certainly flashes where he looks exciting, but they’re outweighed significantly by the times he looks out of sync or overwhelmed by pressure. In that sense, he looks like a lot of the backup quarterbacks that have had their 15 minutes this year (ex. Josh Dobbs, Tommy DeVito, Jake Browning, Sam Howell).
Jalen Reagor’s big day
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Jalen Reagor #83 of the New England Patriots runs the kickoff back for a touchdown during the first quarter of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
Jalen Reagor will get attention for his 98-yard kickoff return touchdown to open the game, but housing that kick wasn’t the only thing he did. He was getting open throughout the game, although Bailey Zappe only found him once. Still it was a nice play, as Reagor had to adjust to his opposite shoulder with the ball in the air, and still came down with the rainbow throw for a 39-yard gain.
As for the interception he was targeted on, Reagor said after the game, “it was just something between me and Bailey, and I’ll leave it at that.” Zappe told reporters “we’ll get back and we’ll fix it, make sure we’re both on the same page,” so it sounds like the quarterback was as much if not more at fault as the receiver was in that case.
Reagor isn’t going to solve all of the Patriots’ long-term problems at wide receiver – far from it. But as the team looks who it will and won’t bring back next year, Reagor is making a strong case to return as a depth wide receiver and special teams player.
Field goal unit fizzles again
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Chad Ryland #37 of the New England Patriots reacts during the second quarter of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
It doesn’t appear as though last week’s walk-off field goal did much to build the momentum for that unit. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland had another miss this week, pushing a 47-yard kick wide left.
Not only that, but Ryland had another miss wiped off the board because the field goal unit couldn’t get set in time, rendering the kick dead. That cost the Patriots a shot at a field goal, as the penalty backed them up to the point where they had to punt.
A few times today we’ve mentioned players that are making a case to be back competing for jobs in 2024. With Ryland, he’s making it look like the team may need to add a kicker for the second year in a row.
